Thursday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Brazil’s Bovespa stock index may drop on further declines in commodity prices, according to Citigroup Inc. strategists. “By far the biggest long-term risk for Latin American equities is a collapse in commodity prices,” Citigroup strategists including Geoffrey Dennis wrote.
- Pessimism about US stocks increased in the past week to match the highest level of the year. The proportion of bearish newsletter writers climbed 5.4 points to 44.7 percent during the week ended yesterday, according to a survey released today by New Rochelle, New York-based Investors Intelligence. That was equal to the 2008 high in the week ended March 18, when the Standard & Poor's 500 Index began a 12 percent rebound from its lows of the year. Optimism about U.S. stocks dropped for a fourth week, with bullish stock advisers retreating 1.8 point to 31.9 percent. The proportion predicting a correction, or 10 percent plunge in benchmark indexes, fell to 23.4 percent from 27 percent, Investors Intelligence said.
- The LA Times announced plans to cut 250 jobs, including 150 positions in news, in an effort to bring costs into line with declining revenue. The publication also plans to reduce the number of pages it publishes each week by 15%. The cuts in editorial amount to 17% of the newsroom staff.
- Platinum and palladium fell after U.S. auto sales fell in June, fueling concerns that demand for the metals used in car parts will slow. ``We are becoming increasingly concerned about China slowing and its impact on metal demand,'' John Reade, the head of UBS AG metals strategy in London, said in an e-mailed note. ``In an interesting e-mail conversation with the head of trading at a major Chinese precious metals company over the weekend, weakness in the equity market was cited as one of the main factors behind a sharp turn down in appetite for precious metals in China in the past couple of months.''
- Nvidia Corp.(NVDA), the second-biggest maker of computer-graphics chips, plunged 20 percent in extended trading after cutting its second-quarter sales forecast because of a drop in demand and increased competition.
- The Nikkei 225 Stock Average's longest losing streak in 43 years belies its top performance among Asia's biggest equity markets as investors bet the end of deflation will lift the economy and spur demand for equities.

Wall Street Journal:
- Yahoo! Inc.(YHOO) is talking to Time Warner Inc.(TWX) about a possible combination as Microsoft Corp. weighs another bid for the Internet company.

CNBC.com:
- Will Europe Make Things Worse for Investors?

CNNMoney.com:
- Bye-bye gas subsidies. Could higher gasoline prices in China and India mean lower prices here in the US?

The Deal.com:
- Job Watch: Hedge funds hiring.

TimesOnline:
- The mastermind of America’s largest hedge fund scam surrenders to police after faking his own death to avoid jail.

South China Morning Post:
- A mainland think-tank has forecast that inflation will reach 7% or higher this year, well beyond Beijing’s target, and is advising the central government to stick to its tight monetary policy.

Xinhua:
- Chinese exporters face emerging problem of defaulted payments.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
- None of note

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -2.0% to unch. on average.
S&P 500 futures +.05%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.38%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Movers
Top 25 Stories
Top 20 Business Stories
Today in IBD
In Play
Bond Ticker
Economic Preview/Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Upgrades/Downgrades
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- None of note

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- The Change in Non-farm Payrolls for June is estimated at -60K versus -49K in May.
- The Unemployment Rate for June is estimated to fall to 5.4% versus 5.5% in May.
- Average Hourly Earnings for June are estimated to rise .3% versus a .3% increase in May.
- Initial Jobless Claims for this week are estimated to rise to 385K versus 384K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 3125K versus 3139K prior.

10:00 am EST:
- ISM Non-Manufacturing for June is estimated to fall to 51.0 versus 51.7 in May.

Other Potential Market Movers
- The weekly EIA natural gas inventory report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and automaker shares in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the close. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.