Monday, July 07, 2008

Tuesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- China's 146 million stock investors, burned by slumping prices, are pulling money out of equities and putting it into deposits. That's not necessarily a good thing for banks
- Australian business confidence fell to the lowest level in seven years in June as cooling domestic demand and spiraling raw-material costs eroded corporate profits
.
- New Zealand companies say sales and trading will decline in the third quarter, pushing profit expectations to a 25-year low, as economic growth slumps.

Wall Street Journal:
- China Scrambles to Meet Deadlines for Olympics. Transit, Construction Fall Behind Schedule As Pollution Persists.
- Virginia Democratic Sen. Jim Webb took himself out of consideration as a vice-presidential candidate amid growing speculation that he was on Sen. Barack Obama's shortlist of possible running mates
.

MarketWatch.com:
- Unfortunately for the gold market, contrarians would not be surprised to see more of the same. That's because sentiment among gold timers remains too frothy to support a significant rally.
- Massive housing legislation moved one step closer to passage Monday night, as senators voted to limit debate on the package.

BusinessWeek.com:
- Germany Plans 30 More Wind Farms.
- The Coming of the Car-Bot. In the near future, autonomous driving will lead to safer roads and great fuel-efficiency.
- Regulation Looms for Prediction Markets. The CFTC is likely to become involved in regulating event futures – and it just may boost these markets.

Global Pensions:
- Quantitative managers have admitted they are likely to become less transparent, following lessons learnt from the credit crisis. As a result of the difficulties, around 40% of the quant world had exited, which left it feeling more comfortable about the future.

IBD:
- Genzyme(GENZ) Taps Rare Disorders To Grow Profit.

CNNMoney.com:
- Oil speculation: Why we don’t have answers. There’s a lot we don’t know about how the oil futures markets now work. Congress should find out.

USA Today.com:
- Interactive TV ads are clicking with viewers.
- More cars sing with digital radio.
- GPS devices become a vital tool for business travelers.

Flight International:
- China gets strict on airline fleet expansion. Concerns about overcapacity and market volatility have led China’s National Development Reform Commission to become more stringent when deciding whether to let airlines increase their fleet size.

Reuters:
- Washington Post picks ex-WSJ boss for editor.
- Ambac(ABK) says has enough funds to meet obligations.
- JPMorgan(JPM) 75% done with tough Bear integration.
- Bigger may be better as smaller hedge funds give up.

Financial Times:
- The biggest hedge funds are on a hiring binge, taking advantage of cutbacks at investment banks to recruit star traders, senior executives and whole teams to help them expand.
- Microsoft(MSFT) set the stage for a full-blown battle to overthrow Yahoo's(YHOO) board of directors on Monday when it declared it was interested in reopening talks to buy all or part of the internet company - but only if a new board was appointed first.

TimesOnline:
- There are new signals today that Britain is on the brink of recession, with confirmation that the bulk of the economy is sliding rapidly into a severe downturn.

Expansion:
- The European Central Bank has no bias on the future path of interest rates, executive member Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell said. She said the whole governing council backs President Jean-Claude Trichet in that position and takes the view that last week’s interest-rate increase will help to deliver price stability in the medium term. Tumpel-Gugerell also said that all countries must fight inflation and interest rates in China are low.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:

- Reiterated Buy on (HCC), lowered estimates, lowered target to $29.
- Reiterated Buy on (GME), target $66.
- Upgraded (MMC) to Buy, raised target to $33.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -2.75% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 futures -.62%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.61%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Movers
Top 25 Stories

Top 20 Business Stories
Today in IBD
In Play
Bond Ticker
Economic Preview/Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Upgrades/Downgrades
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (HELE)/.30
- (PBG)/.75
- (AA)/.66
- (ZZ)/.04
- (GBX)/.46

Upcoming Splits
- (PCU) 3-for-1
- (ATW) 2-for-1

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST

- Pending Home Sales for May are estimated to fall 3.0% versus a 6.0% increase in April.
- Wholesale Inventories for May are estimated to rise .7% versus a 1.3% gain in April.

3:00 pm EST:
- Consumer Credit for May is estimated to rise $7.5 billion versus an $8.9 billion gain in April.

Other Potential Market Movers
- The weekly retail sales report, (DLM) analyst day, (HANS) business update, (AZZ) shareholders meeting, (ATVI) special meeting, (SEL) shareholders meeting, (CCUR) special meeting, Oppenheimer Consumer Growth Conference and CE Unterberg Towbin Growth Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and financial shares in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the close, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

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