Jobless Claims Decline, Unemployment Steady, Philly Fed Improves, Leading Indicators Decelerate

- Initial Jobless Claims for last week fell to 432K versus estimates of 440K and a downwardly revised 445K the prior week.

- Continuing Claims fell to 3362K versus estimates of 3405K and a downwardly revised 3379K prior.

- Philly Fed for August rose to -12.7 versus estimates of -12.6 and a reading of -16.3 in July.

- Leading Indicators for July fell .7% versus estimates of a .2% decline and an upwardly revised unch. reading in June.

BOTTOM LINE: Initial jobless claims fell more than expected last week, Bloomberg reported. The government’s extension of jobless benefits under the spending bill signed by President Bush in June has resulted in more unemployed workers seeking benefits, contributing to the recent increase in claims. The unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits, which tracks the US unemployment rate, was unch. at a below-average 2.5%. I expect jobless claims to fall slightly again next week and to trend modestly lower from current levels through year-end.

Manufacturing in the Philly region faired better than economists expected in August, Bloomberg reported. The New Orders component rose to -11.9 from -12.1 the prior month. The Prices Paid component plunged to 57.5 from 75.6 the prior month. The Outlook component for the next six months surged to 27.6 from 18 in July. The Inventories component rose to -6.6 from -7.5 in July. I continue to expect manufacturing to improve modestly over the coming months and prices paid to trend lower.

The index of leading US economic indicators fell more than economists expected in July, Bloomberg reported. The leading index has declined at a 1.8% annual pace over the past six months. A fall of around 4-4.5% at an annual pace usually signals a recession is likely. The Index of Coincident Indicators, a gauge of current economic activity, rose .1% to 106.8 versus an unch. reading the prior month. The gauge reached a high of 107.3 in October of last year. The Lagging Indicators gauge rose .4% versus unch. the prior month. Leading Indicators for August should show an improvement. I still expect inventory rebuilding, better demand and decelerating inflation to help boost GDP above modestly estimates during 3Q/4Q.