Thursday, October 16, 2008

Thursday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:

- U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said his plan to inject $250 billion into banks is aimed at instilling confidence in financial markets and denied he forced the nation's biggest lenders to accept the money.

- US dollar money-market rates fell after the European Central Bank, Bank of England and Swiss National Bank offered lenders unlimited U.S. currency for the first time in a coordinated effort to unlock credit markets.

- NYC Comptroller William C. Thompson said the city is considering alternatives to the equity market for investments from its $110 billion pension fund. Thompson, who spoke in an interview on CNBC today, said the city plans to expand its holdings in options such as hedge-fund investments.

- JPMorgan Chase & Co.(JPM) increased prime-brokerage assets by about 25 percent as hedge funds pulled accounts from securities firms, Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said.

- Citadel Investment Group Inc.'s biggest hedge fund fell as much as 30 percent this year, because of losses on convertible bonds, stocks and corporate bonds, said two people familiar with the Chicago-based firm.

- The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission extended a rule forcing hedge funds to tell the agency about short-sale positions amid concerns investors bet against companies after spreading false rumors they will fail. Investment managers who oversee more than $100 million must to disclose to the SEC the stocks they've bet will fall in price until Aug. 1, the agency said in a statement on its Web site today.

- Copper and zinc plunged by the exchange-imposed daily limit for a second day in Shanghai, tracking losses in London prices on concern a global recession may slash commodity demand as the credit crisis intensifies.

- Crude oil fell for a third day, taking its decline from the July record to more than 50 percent, after a global stock plunge heightened concern bank bailouts won't prevent a recession. OPEC, supplier of more than 40 percent of the world's oil, cut its forecast yesterday for oil demand next year by 450,000 barrels a day, or 0.5 percent, to 87.21 million barrels a day.

- South Korea's won slumped as much as 11 percent, the most since the International Monetary Fund bailed the nation out in 1997, after Standard & Poor's said it may cut credit ratings for Kookmin Bank and six other companies.

- Latin America's plunging commodities and fleeing investors are putting an end to the fastest period of economic growth in the region in more than three decades.


Wall Street Journal:
- The U.K.'s $697 billion financial-rescue plan -- hailed as a model for other countries trying to stem the banking crisis -- is starting to show some cracks. Some banks are pushing back with complaints that the conditions are too harsh, especially after seeing the more generous terms of the U.S. bailout. As details emerge, U.K. banks are concerned the price the government plans to charge them to guarantee their debt is too high -- in some cases more than the banks earn on their existing loans. "It's going to become another hit on earnings," says a Citigroup analyst.

- Oil giant BP PLC(BP) is exploring a potential deal to buy natural-gas properties from once highflying Chesapeake Energy Corp.(CHK), according to people close to the British company's thinking.

- Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama confronted one another over the increasingly bitter tone of their presidential race, with each man blaming the other during sharp exchanges Wednesday in their third and final televised debate.


CNBC.com:

- The stock market has hit a low and will end the year higher than it is today, a top market watcher told CNBC Monday. Byron Wien, Pequot Capital Management's Chief Investment Strategist, said "we've made a low, we're going to rally and then retest it." Wien is optimistic enough about the market to see "opportunities in every sector," including financials, which will benefit from an "enormous number of policy moves."

- The US Treasury is considering taking an equity stake in bond-insurance companies including Ambac Financial Group Inc., MBIA Inc. and PMI Group Inc.


MarketWatch.com:
- Whatever else you might say about corporate insiders, they sure have the courage of their convictions. Not only have they, on balance, behaved bullishly over the last year, they have become even more bullish as the stock market has declined.


Financial Times:
- Investors pulled at least $43bn from US hedge funds in September as market turmoil led to unprecedented withdrawals, an analysis by a leading research house shows.

- A group of the largest US hedge funds has called on the Bank of England to intervene to free an estimated $65bn (£38bn) in assets frozen in London in the collapse of Lehman Brothers, warning that delays “could be disastrous for UK plc”. The funds, through the Managed Funds Association, said the scale of the problem was so great that it could undermine bank rescue plans as tens of billions of dollars would be kept out of the market. It was also likely to lead to the failure of some fund managers, said Richard Baker, chief executive of the MFA.


Philstar.com:

- The Philippine government expects the country’s exports to slow down next year, with growth seen between negative two percent and four percent due to a global financial crisis.


Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (CCK), target $32.


Night Trading
Asian Indices are -7.25% to -3.50% on average.
S&P 500 futures -.86%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.59%.


Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Movers
Top 25 Stories
Top 20 Business Stories
Today in IBD
In Play
Bond Ticker
Economic Preview/Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Upgrades/Downgrades
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling


Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (LUV)/.07

- (CAL)/-1.48

- (MER)/-5.19

- (PNC)/.96

- (UTX)/1.31

- (UNH)/.73

- (C)/-.70

- (BAX)/.82

- (HSY)/.64

- (CIT)/.18

- (HOG)/.78

- (BK)/.69

- (TXT)/.87

- (DHR)/1.13

- (PH)/1.38

- (BBT)/.66

- (ITW)/.86

- (SYK)/.67

- (SHW)/1.27

- (NUE)/2.19

- (GILD)/.52

- (COF)/.92

- (AMD)/-.39

- (IBM)/2.00

- (BTU)/.87

- (PPG)/1.30

- (GOOG)/4.78

- (ISRG)/1.27


Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

- The Consumer Price Index for September is estimated to rise .1% versus a .1% decline in August.

- The CPI Ex Food & Energy for September is estimated to rise .2% versus a .2% gain in August.

- Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 470K versus 478K the prior week.

- Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 3670K versus 3659K prior.


9:00 am EST

- Net Long-term TIC Flows for August are estimated to rise to $30.0 billion versus $6.1 billion in July.


9:15 am EST

- Industrial Production for September is estimated to fall .8% versus a 1.1% decline in August.

- Capacity Utilization for September is estimated to fall to 77.9% versus 78.7% in August.


10:00 am EST

- Philly Fed for October is estimated at -10.0 versus 3.8 in September.


1:00 pm EST

- The NAHB Housing Market Index for October is estimated at 17 versus 18 in September.


Upcoming Splits
- None of note


Other Potential Market Movers
- The weekly EIA energy inventory report, (CHK) analyst meeting and (UMH) investor presentation forum could also impact trading today.


BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are sharply lower, weighed down by automaker and commodity stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

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