Monday, October 27, 2008

Tuesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:

- Boeing Co.(BA) and machinists-union leaders agreed on ``tentative'' terms for a contract that if approved by members would end the third-longest strike in the union's 73-year history and reopen the planemaker's shuttered factories. The agreement for a four-year contract, rather than the usual three years, would provide job security for machinists ``and limit the amount of work outside vendors can perform in the workplace,'' the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers said in an e-mailed statement today.

- The euro dropped to its lowest in more than two years against the dollar on speculation European interest rates will slide as recession looms.

- Investors should sell the Australian dollar against the greenback as the currency is likely to extend this year’s record declines because a weaker Chinese economy will sap demand for raw materials, RBC Capital Markets said. China’s economic growth may slow to 8% in the fourth quarter, after growing by a weaker-than-expected 9% in the three months ended Sept. 30, “exerting further downward pressure on commodities prices,” Trinh wrote.

- SAP AG(SAP), the world's biggest maker of business-management software, withdrew its 2008 sales forecast and lowered its margin projection, citing the economic slump.

- Japanese Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa said restrictions on short-selling of shares will take effect today to bolster the stock market.

- The European economy's close ties to emerging markets are turning from a blessing to a curse. Already skirting recession, the 15 euro nations face greater pain as economies which gave them an edge over the U.S. and Japan falter. Trade partners to the east, that buy about a third of the region's exports, are faltering as their banks weaken and currencies slide. Meanwhile, the halving of oil prices is slowing demand from the Middle East.

- Hong Kong's retail rents, declining since the third quarter, will probably drop further as the city's slowing economy dents consumer spending, real estate agents said. Rents at malls and street-level shops, down 10 percent from their peak earlier this year, may slide 10 percent more by the second quarter next year, said Pierre Wong, chief executive officer at Midland IC&I Ltd., the commercial property arm of the city's biggest publicly traded real estate agency.


Wall Street Journal:
- Electronics manufacturers and retail chains are slashing prices of Blu-ray players in a bid to boost adoption of the high-definition movie format, which has yet to catch on with American consumers.

- Republican John McCain promised Monday to break with President Bush's policies on the economy and put a tight lid on government spending. Flanked by some of his economic advisers, the Republican presidential candidate bashed Democratic rival Barack Obama, but also made clear he would steer a different course than the current GOP administration.

- The seemingly unstoppable rise of the Japanese yen is raising the prospect that, for the first time in years, the Japanese government could intervene to stifle its surge.


CNBC.com:

- A fast and furious as the crude oil market selloff has been, it's far from over, says one expert. "The pendulum does swing much faster than we give it credit for," says Peter Beutel of Cameron Hanover. Beutel says $37 a barrel is likely, even $20 a barrel isn't out of the question. (video)

CBS 2 TV:
- Todd Rokita, Indiana secretary of state, is asking federal, state and local prosecutors to open an investigation into alleged fraudulent voter-registration applications. Rokita said many registration applications filed by the Assoc. of Community Organizations for Reform Now, or Acorn, have indications of fraud, forgery or incomplete information.

IBD:

- Green Mountain Coffee Roasters(GMCR): Tully Deal Should Give Coffee Maker’s West Coast Push A Nice Jolt.


Reuters:

- The average U.S. retail gasoline price fell 26 cents over the last week to $2.66 a gallon, the cheapest pump price since March 2007, the Energy Department said on Monday. In addition to cheaper motor fuel, falling crude oil is also lowering heating oil prices, which will save consumers on their heating bills this autumn and winter.

TimesOnline:
- A new front is opening up in the battle between London and New York to be the world's dominant financial centre. Hedge funds, and the thorny question of where they decide to do business over the coming months, could mark a turning point in the delicate balance of power between the two market capitals. Despite widespread fears that hundreds of funds are poised to collapse, any shake-out in the industry will still leave hundreds of healthy firms with billions to invest. Experts say that some of the industry's biggest funds are considering whether to move billions of dollars worth of assets across the Atlantic to the United States in the wake of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the Wall Street investment bank.

AFP:

- John McCain renewed his bid to paint Barack Obama as a "socialist" Monday, saying remarks made by his rival in a 2001 interview proved he was hellbent on large-scale redistribution of wealth. In the interview, which surfaced on the Internet over the weekend, Obama discussed the failure of the civil rights movement to achieve "redistributive change" -- comments seized upon by McCain. "In a radio interview revealed today, he said that one of the quote -- 'tragedies' of the civil rights movement is that it didn't bring about a redistribution of wealth in our society," McCain said. "That is what change means for Barack the Redistributor: It means taking your money and giving it to someone else," he told a crowd of around 2,000 at a sports hall in this key battleground state.

Straits Times:

- Singapore’s construction industry will be hit by the global financial crisis as more developers delay their projects, citing the city-state’s contractors’ association.


Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (EQT), target $38.

- Reiterated Buy on (RIGL), target $32.

- Upgraded (PHM) to Buy, target $11.

- Reiterated Buy on (HUM), target $38.

- Reiterated Buy on (VECO), target $13.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -5.0% to -.50% on average.
S&P 500 futures +.50%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.24%.


Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Movers
Top 25 Stories
Top 20 Business Stories
Today in IBD
In Play
Bond Ticker
Economic Preview/Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Upgrades/Downgrades
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling


Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (IPG)/.06

- (MAS)/.18

- (TIN)/.05

- (X)/6.96

- (SII)/.97

- (SCHN)/2.53

- (MSO)/.00

- (MHP)/1.23

- (HMA)/.08

- (RCL)/1.67

- (EL)/.23

- (VLO)/1.45

- (WHR)/1.69

- (BYD)/.19

- (UA)/.50

- (OXY)/2.71

- (MCK)/1.06

- (CEPH)/1.23

- (BXP)/1.21

- (APOL)/.68

- (CTX)/.95

- (DRIV)/.46

- (ADVS)/.17

- (FLS)/1.73


Economic Releases
9:00 am EST

- The S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index for August is estimated at 165.0 versus 166.2 in July.


10:00 am EST

- Consumer Confidence for October is estimated to fall to 52.0 versus 59.8 in September.


Upcoming Splits
- (BKE) 3-for-2


Other Potential Market Movers
- The weekly retail sales reports, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, BIOCOM Investor Conference, Sidoti Emerging Growth Forum, (DPZ) analyst meeting, (PFE) analyst meeting, (PFWD) analyst meeting and (PLL) analyst meeting could also impact trading today.


BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and financial stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

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