Thursday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:

- Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick said U.S. government efforts to overhaul health care won’t be able to follow his state’s blueprint for universal coverage unless costs are controlled at the same time. Unlike the Massachusetts plan, which focused first on getting residents to sign up for insurance and only now is turning to cost containment, federal legislation must include measures to trim medical costs if it wants to garner and keep public support, Patrick said in an interview today in Boston. The 2006 Massachusetts law, with its combination of public and private insurance programs, has reduced the number of uninsured to 2.6 percent of its population, the lowest rate in the nation, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. At the same time, per capita health spending in Massachusetts is projected to double from 2009 through 2020, according to a June report by the state. The Massachusetts plan has served as a template for President Barack Obama’s federal overhaul effort.

- An eight-month, 68 percent rally in global stocks failed to convince investors and analysts that it’s time to take on more risk or dispel their concerns about U.S. economic policies and its banking system. Only 31 percent of respondents to a poll of investors and analysts who are Bloomberg subscribers in the U.S., Europe and Asia see investment opportunities, down from 35 percent in the previous survey in July. Almost 40 percent in the latest quarterly survey, the Bloomberg Global Poll, say they are still hunkering down. U.S. investors are even more cautious, with more than 50 percent saying they are in a defensive crouch. “The doubt and the pessimism just won’t go away,” says James Paulsen, who helps oversee $375 billion as chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management in Minneapolis. “They’re still so shell-shocked by what they went through despite the improvement in the market and the economy.”

- A Federal Bureau of Investigation money-laundering sting targeting two financial professionals in Florida and Nebraska is tied to an international probe of German hedge-fund firm K1 Group, people familiar with the matter said. K1 Group, a firm that invests in other hedge funds, is embroiled in an international inquiry after saddling lenders including Barclays Plc, JPMorgan Chase & Co., BNP Paribas SA and Societe Generale SA with about $400 million in losses, people familiar with the matter said before Seuss’s case became public. Prosecutors in Wuerzburg, Germany, said they are investigating K1’s founder, Helmut Kiener, for fraud and breach of trust. Police yesterday raided his home near Frankfurt.

- A U.S. labor board plans to make it easier for unions to organize workers at carriers including Delta Air Lines Inc., people familiar with the matter said. The proposal, to be announced in coming days, would let workers form unions with a majority approval of those voting, according to the people, who asked not to be identified discussing the plan. The change would overturn a standard that requires support of most workers in a class, not just those who cast ballots. The change would be a victory for the AFL-CIO, the largest U.S. labor federation. The group asked the National Mediation Board to overhaul the voting standard last month, saying it would be more democratic. Delta, the least unionized major passenger airline, has fought the proposed change that would make it harder for the carrier to block organizing campaigns. Pilots are the only large work group completely organized at the Atlanta-based carrier. “We do not believe the NMB has the authority to change these long-standing rules,” Delta spokeswoman Gina Laughlin said in an interview. “Nor do we believe a minority union should be allowed without giving employees a similar process to vote out a union.” The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Air Transport Association, a trade group for major U.S. carriers, also oppose the change. “If the NMB goes forward with its proposal, we will be enormously disappointed, as nothing has changed to warrant a new rule,” James May, the Air Transport Association president, said in a statement. The National Mediation Board helps resolve labor disputes and oversees elections for airlines and railroads under the Railway Labor Act. The three-member board, criticized by labor for actions under Republican George W. Bush’s administration, now has a Democratic majority with President Barack Obama in office. The Obama administration added a former flight-attendants’ union leader to the board in May, replacing a former lobbyist for Northwest Airlines. Another board member is a former pilot- union official.

- Southern Copper Corp.(PCU), which holds the world’s second-largest reserves of the metal, can “easily” double annual output to more than 1 million metric tons, Chief Executive Officer Oscar Gonzalez Rocha said. Southern, which expects to produce 500,000 metric tons this year, plans to raise output 70 percent at its Peruvian mines by 2012, Gonzalez said. It may increase production further if parent company Grupo Mexico SAB regains control of U.S. producer Asarco LLC, he said. “Southern can become the world’s biggest copper producer,” Gonzalez said yesterday in an interview in Lima. “We can easily reach more than 1 million tons of production from mines in Mexico, Peru and the U.S.”

- Traders bought December $70 put options in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange today, as the underlying futures dropped the most in more than a month. The December $70 puts, or bets that prices will fall below that level, rose 21 cents to 70 cents a barrel, or $700 a contract, at 3:53 p.m. in New York on trading of 845 lots, 22 percent more than the next-most-active contract.

- President Barack Obama plans to sign legislation today adding gays to the list of groups covered by the federal hate-crime law, the biggest expansion of such protections in decades. Obama will sign a defense policy and funding measure that includes the provision and, according to a White House statement.

- Senate Democrats plan to extend an $8,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers and allow benefits for some people who already own residences, a spokeswoman for Majority Leader Harry Reid said.

- Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s arrival in Pakistan for what was meant to be an outreach mission to support economic development and counter rising anti-U.S. sentiment was overshadowed by the country’s worst terrorist attack in two years. A car bombing of a crowded bazaar in the northwestern city of Peshawar killed at least 97 people, many of them women and children, hours after Clinton touched down yesterday in the capital, Islamabad, less than 100 miles (160 kilometers) away. The latest in a wave of bombings and assaults in Pakistan that have claimed nearly 270 lives this month.

- A U.S. effort to pressure Iran into nuclear concessions by curbing gasoline imports may have little impact because the United Arab Emirates and other countries are willing to keep shipping fuel to the Islamic Republic. About $2.8 billion worth of gasoline passes through the U.A.E. to Iran each year, amounting to 75 percent of Iran’s refined fuel imports. Sanctions passed yesterday by the House Foreign Affairs Committee will have limited effect unless international curbs follow, said Cliff Kupchan, a senior analyst at Eurasia Group, a New York political-risk consulting firm. “U.S.-imposed gasoline sanctions would place a crimp but not a stranglehold on the Iranian economy,” Kupchan said. “The problem with unilateral sanctions is that companies in countries that don’t support them can provide Iran with gasoline.”

Wall Street Journal:

- Democratic enthusiasm for President Barack Obama's liberal domestic agenda—particularly for a government-run health insurance program—could wane after the results of the gubernatorial elections next Tuesday in Virginia and New Jersey. GOP victories in either state will tell Democrats in red states and districts that support for Obama's policies is risky to their political health. The more significant is the open race for governor in Virginia, a purple state. The Washington Post poll released Monday showed 55% support for Republican Attorney General Bob McDonnell and 44% for Democratic State Senator Creigh Deeds. The president is trying to reverse these numbers by stumping the state for Mr. Deeds.

- Beleaguered high-end retailer Saks Inc. is testing online "private event" sales of discounted designer goods, in a bid to compete with discount Web retailers that are gaining popularity in the U.S. in the recession. Saks on Tuesday launched a 36-hour sale, dubbed Fashion Fix, open only to those who received emails from Saks directing them to the site. "Today, the rush begins," read the email sent to a large number of Saks.com customers on Tuesday.

- After shelling out billions of dollars to Wall Street banks last year on souring trades, American International Group Inc. has gotten some of that money back, thanks to a turnaround in the very securities that helped level the insurer. Billions of dollars have flowed from banks into AIG coffers in recent months, according to people familiar with the matter. For the second quarter, the figure may have topped $3 billion, public filings suggest.

- The Federal Trade Commission would get new powers to oversee and punish companies that run afoul of its rules as part of a financial-services oversight bill currently before Congress, a further step in the Obama administration's beefing up of the U.S. regulatory machinery. The provision, which has reached this point virtually unnoticed by all but a few lobbyists and interest groups, will be debated in the House Energy and Commerce Committee Thursday. The legislation, if approved, would strengthen the FTC by allowing the agency to craft regulations more quickly and enhance its ability to impose civil penalties on companies. It would also allow the agency to take action against companies "aiding and abetting" unfair or deceptive business practices, not just the original perpetrator, according to people familiar with the legislation.

- If you're an elected Democrat anywhere to the right of Barney Frank, and trying to defend a competitive seat next November, you've got to be starting to sweat. You wake up in the morning and just like every other morning as far as the eye can see the only thing in the news is the president's health-care reform. It's starting to look like Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi are leading the Donner Party, the snowbound emigrants who bogged down in the Sierra Nevada winter in the 1840s and resorted to cannibalism to survive. The betting is that with raw political muscle and procedural magic, the Congressional Democrats will pass something, call it reform and hand Barack Obama a "victory." Maybe, but I think what we are seeing with this massive legislation is that the Democrats in Washington have a bigger problem: Their party is looking so yesterday. In a world defined by nearly 100,000 iPhone apps, a world of seemingly limitless, self-defined choice, the Democrats are pushing the biggest, fattest, one-size-fits all legislation since 1965. And they brag this will complete the dream Franklin D. Roosevelt had in 1939. The culture still believes the U.S. has a hipster for president. But the Obama health-care bill, and maybe this whole administration, is starting to look totally out of sync with the new zeitgeist, the spirit of the age.

- Montana Rep. Denny Rehberg was no fan of the $58 billion federal rescue of General Motors Co., saying he worried taxpayer money would be wasted and the restructuring process would be vulnerable to "political pressure." Now the lawmaker says it's his "patriotic duty" to wade into GM's affairs. Along with Montana's two Democratic senators, the Republican congressman is battling to get GM to reinstate a contract with a Montana palladium mine nullified in bankruptcy court. "The simple fact is, when GM took federal dollars, they lost some of their autonomy," Mr. Rehberg says.

- It's hard not to laugh when viewing the results of the federal first-time home-buyer tax credit. The credit, worth up to $8,000 for the purchase of a home, has only been available since April of last year. Yet news of the latest taxpayer-funded mortgage scam has traveled fast. The Treasury's inspector general for tax administration, J. Russell George, recently told Congress that at least 19,000 filers hadn't purchased a home when they claimed the credit. For another 74,000 filers, claiming a total of $500 million in credits, evidence suggests that they weren't first-time buyers.

Barron’s:

- IF YOU THINK THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC RECOVERY is underway, it could be smart to buy shares of companies with established brands like Coca-Cola (ticker: KO). That may be what Barry Diller, a high-profile director at the beverage giant, was thinking this week when he bought $27.6 million in shares. Diller bought 510,000 shares at an average price of $54.03 each on Oct. 26, more than doubling his holdings.

CNBC.com:

- We know what you’re thinking, the market needs a weak dollar to go higher. Well maybe not. The wisdom in the market right now is that a weak dollar provides a tailwind for stocks. At the risk of sounding like a broken record that’s largely because it drives commodity prices higher. Then, energy shares and natural resource names follow along. It also benefits multi-nationals as they repatriate profits back into dollars. (They get more dollars for every euro, etc.) Well, maybe it’s time for the wind to change direction – or to re-think that wisdom. Gary Kaminsky, the former Neuberger Berman managing director says “a stronger dollar does not equal a weaker market.” And he’s far from alone. In fact, Bespoke research shows that equities do better when the dollar rallies. During the last 5 dollar bull markets the average return on the S&P was 59%. That’s largely because the stronger dollar signals strength in the US economy. And it generates new sectors of leadership. Typically, the industrials, airlines and retailers all benefit as the dollar gains. And it keeps a lid on prices at the pump – arguably the most important influence of all.

- The hopeful mood that accompanied the start of President Obama's term has given way to deepening concern about the nation’s economic troubles, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. In the survey, a 52 percent majority of Americans described the nation as headed "off on the wrong track," compared to 36 percent who said the U.S. is "headed in the right direction." Though Obama's overall approval rating remained unchanged at 51 percent, assessments of Obama's handling of the economy have declined. Some 47 percent approve his economic stewardship, down from 50 percent in September, while 46 percent disapprove, up from 42 percent in September.

CNNMoney.com:

- If you own IBM(IBM) shares, hold 'em. If you don't, now might still be a good time to get a piece of Big Blue.

Newsweek:

- The foreclosure crisis may be coming to a middle-class neighborhood near you. As joblessness continues to rise and as a person's unemployment lasts on average 6.5 months, roughly 3.4 million homes are expected to go into foreclosure by the end of 2009. That's up from 1.2 million homes in 2007, according to RealtyTrac, a subscription-based site that tracks foreclosures nationwide. "We're not out of the woods yet," says Rick Sharga, RealtyTrac's senior vice president. Sharga recently spoke to NEWSWEEK's Nancy Cook about the various waves of the foreclosure crisis, the future of homeownership and why the Obama administration’s loan-modification program won't stem this latest crop of foreclosures. Excerpts:

Seattlepi.com:

- Boeing(BA) has decided to put its second line for building the 787 in North Charleston, S.C., not Everett. "The decision has been reached," Snohomish County Executive Aaron Reardon told reporters in front of the Everett Machinists Hall.

Politico:

- One of the 20 finalists in health care video contest run by Barack Obama’s campaign arm features a mural of an America flag splattered with health care graffiti until it’s covered completely by black paint. In the video – which is accompanied by the sound of a heart monitor pumping and then flat-lining – words such as “pre-existing conditions,” “homeless” and “death panel” ultimately obliterate the flag, which reappears on screen seconds later with the words “Health Will Bring Our Country Back to Life” on the blue field where the 50 stars usually are. According to the Organizing for American Web site, the 20 finalists in the “Health Reform Video Challenge” were chosen by a panel of “qualified” Democratic National Committee “employee judges.” A contestant whose video didn’t make the final-20 cut complains that a video “defacing the flag” won’t do much to help President Barack Obama or the Democrats sell health care reform.

Detroit Free Press:

- The leader of what federal authorities describe as a fundamentalist group was shot and killed today during a series of raids in Dearborn and Detroit that resulted in federal charges against a dozen men. Luqman Ameen Abdullah, 53, also known as Christopher Thomas, was gunned down after refusing to surrender and opening fire when the FBI raided a Dearborn warehouse, according to the U.S. Attorney’s Office. “The eleven defendants are members of a group that is alleged to have engaged in violent activity over a period of many years and known to be armed,” according to a joint statement from the FBI and U.S. Attorney’s Office. Abdullah and 10 others were charged in a complaint with conspiracy to commit several federal felony crimes, including illegal possession and sale of firearms and theft from interstate shipments. A 12th man, A.C. Pusha, was arrested late Wednesday in connection with the investigation. Three of the men who were charged still were at large tonight. One was already in prison. Abdullah was the leader of a group which calls itself "Ummah, a group of mostly African-American converts to Islam, which seeks to establish a separate Sharia-law governed state within the United States,” the press release states. “The Ummah is ruled by Jamil Abdullah Al-Amin, formerly known as H. Rap Brown, who is serving a state sentence… for the murder of two police officers in Georgia.”

Reuters:

- Two-thirds of U.S. adults plan to spend less this holiday season and 6 percent say they still are carrying debt from last year's holiday purchases, according a new Consumer Reports Holiday Shopping Poll released on Thursday. As recession lingers on Main Street and job losses mount, 65 percent of Americans say they plan to cut overall holiday expenses such as gifts, travel and entertaining. In last year's poll, 76 percent of shoppers said they planned to cut back on holiday spending. The planned pull-back comes on top of last year's dismal shopping season, when consumer spending lagged markedly and shoppers weren't yet sure how far the U.S. financial market meltdown would spread.

Financial Times:

- Morgan Stanley(MS) has been dragged into a risky Chinese court battle over a hedging contract with a local company in the latest stand-off between foreign investment banks and mainland enterprises over loss-making derivatives deals. The case comes at a sensitive time for global banks, with Beijing seeking to clamp down on the over-the-counter derivatives markets after a raft of state-owned companies made disastrous bets on currency and commodity movements. A legal battle in China could be prolonged and subject Morgan Stanley to financial and reputational risks, lawyers said. The investment bank now faces two court battles, one each in England and China, over the same set of contracts. Morgan Stanley has suffered a number of recent challenges relating to its China business. Earlier this year, the US SEC started a probe into the bank’s former China property head over possible violations of the US foreign corrupt practices act relating to mainland property deals while one of its former investment bankers was convicted in Hong Kong last month for insider trading while advising Beijing-based Citic Resources.

- The Galleon hedge fund at the centre of an insider trading scandal paid hundreds of millions of dollars a year to its Wall Street banks and in return regularly received market information that would not have been disclosed to most investors, executives familiar with the matter say. A person familiar with Galleon, whose founder, Raj Rajaratnam, was charged with insider trading this month, said it paid about $250m to its banks last year. Executives who dealt with the fund said it paid more in fees and other charges during the boom years of this decade. Morgan Stanley(MS), which counted Galleon as one of its top-five hedge fund clients, and Goldman Sachs(GS) were Galleon’s top providers of hedge-fund services – or prime brokerage. Galleon, which had about $7bn in assets at its peak, paid large amounts to banks because it specialized in short-term trading strategies, which put its officials in close contact with Wall Street traders and salespeople. As it grew, the hedge fund became known for pushing its contacts at banks for hints about market developments such as big buy and sell orders. Although bank policies often prohibit employees from divulging specific information about orders, executives who dealt with Galleon said it regularly received “color” on market developments, frequently delivered in Wall Street slang. One example would be traders discussing a “page one seller” of shares – a reference to the first page of the Bloomberg list of top holders of listed companies. One executive who dealt with Galleon said: “They wanted anything the public did not have. They got various pieces and put them together and that was their edge.” A former Goldman executive who provided services to funds including Galleon said: “They were tough and aggressive. They cared about short-term returns and cared a lot about the impact of their trading and the costs. They expected a lot of market information.” Market participants say the Galleon case could have a chilling effect on the distribution of market “color” – possibly affecting other hedge funds that trade frequently to make quick returns. “High-velocity hedge funds aren’t really about investing,” said one hedge fund founder. “It is a cat and mouse kind of thing, a game.” Goldman, Morgan Stanley and a Galleon representative declined to comment.

- China is preparing to launch a trade investigation into whether US carmakers are being unfairly subsidized by the US government, according to people familiar with the matter. The move comes at a time of heightened trade tensions between the two countries after the US imposed duties on Chinese tires last month. Many warned this would prompt Beijing to retaliate. US labour groups have long accused Beijing of unfairly subsidising its exporters. However, through a “countervailing duties” investigation, China would assess whether the US was open to the same charge. The investigation could lead to import duties. General Motors and Chrysler have received about $60bn in government bail-out funds, though Ford has received nothing. Washington has also provided substantial aid to US and foreign carmakers, as well as parts suppliers, to encourage investment in “green” technology. The wildly popular “cash-for-clunkers” sales incentive scheme this summer was also a boon for both US and foreign manufacturers. Elliot Feldman, head of international trade at Baker & Hostetler, the law firm, said his firm warned the USTR last January that the approach the US was taking towards China and other countries over subsidies was dangerous in the light of the US’s own support for carmakers, banks and financial institutions. “We warned that other countries could apply to the United States the same principles the United States was applying to them,” he said. “Apparently we have arrived.”

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:

- Raised (VIA/B) to Buy, boosted target to $32.

- Reiterated Buy on (BWA), target $36.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -2.75% to -1.25% on average.

Asia Ex-Japan Inv Grade CDS Index 121.50 +9.0 basis points.
S&P 500 futures +.15%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.09%.

Morning Preview

BNO Breaking Global News of Note

Google Top Stories

Bloomberg Breaking News

Yahoo Most Popular Biz Stories

MarketWatch News Viewer

Asian Financial News

European Financial News

Latin American Financial News

MarketWatch Pre-market Commentary

U.S. Equity Preview

TradeTheNews Morning Report

Briefing.com In Play

SeekingAlpha Market Currents

Briefing.com Bond Ticker

US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Futures
IBD New America
Economic Preview/Calendar
Earnings Calendar

Conference Calendar

Who’s Speaking?
Upgrades/Downgrades

Politico Headlines
Rasmussen Reports Polling

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (AGN)//.69

- (WMB)/.19

- (AMSC)/.05

- (TDW)/1.37

- (PG)/.98

- (XOM)/1.02

- (PTEN)/-.16

- (STRA)/1.15

- (BKC)/.37

- (UTHR)/.27

- (CL)/1.11

- (NEM)/.55

- (CME)/3.29

- (EXPE)/.42

- (AET)/.66

- (MOT)/.00

- (S)/-.11

- (EK)/-.19

- (K)/.85

- (APA)/1.61

- (MWW)/.00

- (MXIM)/.14

- (MFE)/.60

- (BMC)/.58

- (MET)/.86

- (LVS)/.00

- (ODP)/-.10

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

- Advance 3Q GDP is estimated to rise +3.2% versus a -.7% decline in 2Q.

- Advance 3Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +3.1% versus a -.9% decline in 2Q.

- Advance 3Q GDP Price Index is estimated to rise +1.14% versus unch. in 2Q.

- Advance 3Q Core PCE is estimated to rise +1.4% versus a +2.0% gain in 2Q.

- Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 523K versus 531K the prior week.

- Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 5905K versus 5923K prior.

Upcoming Splits
- None of Note

Other Potential Market Movers
- Geithner’s testimony before the House on regulation, the weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Treasury’s 7-Year Note Auction, (AVP) analyst meeting and the (JNPR) analyst meeting could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are sharply lower, weighed down by financial and real estate shares in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.