Wednesday, August 29, 2012

Wednesday Watch


Night Trading

  • Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 152.0 +2.0 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 126.75 +1.5 basis points.
  • FTSE-100 futures -.05%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.07%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.11%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (HNZ)/.81
  • (GCO)/.25
  • (JOY)/1.89
  • (TFM)/.27
  • (BF/B)/.63
  • (P)/-.03
  • (JOSB)/.72
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

  • Preliminary 2Q GDP is estimated to rise +1.7% versus a prior estimate of a +1.5% gain.
  • Preliminary 2Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +1.5% versus a prior estimate of a +1.5% gain.
  • Preliminary 2Q GDP Price Index is estimated to rise +1.6% versus a prior estimate of a +1.6% gain.
  • Preliminary 2Q Core PCE is estimated to rise +1.8% versus a prior estimate of a +1.8% gain.

10:00 am EST

  • Pending Home Sales for July are estimated to rise +1.0% versus a -1.4% decline in June.

10:30 am EST

  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,750,000 barrels versus a -5,412,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate supplies are estimated to rise by +200,000 barrels versus a +992,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline inventories are estimated to fall by -1,450,000 barrels versus a -962,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.3% versus a -1.4% decline the prior week.

2:00 pm EST

  • Fed's Beige Book

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

  • The Italian Retail Sales/Consumer Confidence reports, Germany inflation data, 5Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA mortgage applications report and the (HMY) investor day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and real estate shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

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