Tuesday, April 02, 2013

Tuesday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 12:47 AM
Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 
  • Cyprus Seeks More Time to Meet Targets in Talks With Troika. Cyprus government officials will seek easier bailout terms in talks with representatives of the European Union and International Monetary Fund today, before a meeting of euro-area finance officials later this week. “Final outstanding issues in talks with the troika primarily relate to the wider financial sector and fiscal policy and adjustment,” Christos Stylianides, the government’s spokesman, said in Nicosia yesterday. The government has been granted an extension to 2017 from 2016 to secure a primary budget surplus, which excludes interest payments, and it hopes to negotiate an additional year to 2018, he said.
  • China's Electricity Use Darkens Metals Outlook: Chart of the Day. China's shrinking electricity use may signal a decelerating economy, a bearish sign for a price index of industrials metals that posted a first-quarter decline for the first time in 12 years. A gauge of six prices from the LME fell 5.6% in the three months ended March, the first drop for the period since 2001. China's electricity demand in January and February gained 5.5% from a year earlier, compared with an increase of 6.7% in those months in 2012 and more than 12% in 2011. "China's power consumption data is flatlining, and that augurs poorly for metals," Peter Sorrentino, a senior fund manager who helps oversee $14.7 billion at Huntington Asset Advisors in Cincinnati, said in a telephone interview. 
  • Hong Kong Businesses Vanish as Rents Soar: Real Estate. Over the past decade, car-repair shop owner Benny Chan has seen more than 70 percent of his small-business peers disappear as his Hong Kong neighborhood fills up with high-end Western bars and Japanese restaurants. “Rents here are going up multiple times,” said Chan, who’s been in business since 1985 in the Tai Hang area, just east of the ritzy Causeway Bay shopping district. “We’ll all be out of here in the next four to five years.”
  • China Cited by U.S. for Trade Barriers on Autos, Steel, Beef. China continues to restrict U.S. producers of autos, steel and beef from gaining access to its markets, and its protection of intellectual-property rights remains inadequate, the U.S. Trade Representative’s office said. While the Asian nation has made progress opening its markets to foreign competition, “some serious problems remain, such as China’s refusal to grant trading rights for certain industries,” according to the agency’s annual report to Congress on trade barriers, released today. The USTR also released two other reports covering health and regulatory trade barriers in China and other countries. 
  • China Backs North Korea Economic Zone Amid Kim Nuclear Threat. China expressed support for developing a shared economic zone in a North Korean border city amid Kim Jong Un’s threats to build nuclear weapons and attack South Korea and the U.S. Chen Jian, a vice commerce minister, said at a briefing in Beijing today that he’s “optimistic” about the zone in Rason. “Various work in the Rason zone is proceeding smoothly,” Chen said to reporters. “I haven’t heard anything that it has slowed down.”
  • Japan Auto Sales Fall on End of Subsidies as Korea Extends Slump. Japanese vehicle sales fell the most in six quarters after government subsidies ended, while deliveries in South Korea extended their slump. The number of vehicles sold in Japan, Asia’s second-largest auto market, fell 9.4 percent to 1.53 million during the quarter, with Toyota Motor Corp. (7203) seeing a 15 percent drop, according to association data released yesterday. In South Korea, the region’s fourth-largest vehicle market, deliveries declined 2.5 percent as Hyundai Motor Co. (005380) saw a 0.7 percent contraction, based on company statements.
  • Corn, Silver, Rubber Expanding Commodity Bear Markets on Supply. Corn, silver and rubber tumbled into bear markets, joining slumps in commodities such as sugar and wheat, on signs that expanding supplies will outpace demand amid increasing concern that global growth will falter. The price of corn in Chicago plunged the most in 24 years yesterday, leaving futures down 23 percent from last year’s closing high and exceeding the 20 percent benchmark for bear markets. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Agriculture Index of eight raw materials touched a nine-month low yesterday, falling 21 percent from its 2012 peak. Silver in New York and rubber in Tokyo were down more than 20 percent from closing highs. 
  • Copper Below March Low Signaling More Losses: Technical Analysis. Copper futures that posted their biggest first-quarter decline in more than a decade are headed lower this month, according to technical analysis by Paul Kavanaugh at FuturePath Trading LLC. The attached chart shows the contract for May delivery on the Comex in New York closed at $3.3745 a pound yesterday, below the intraday low on March 19 of $3.388, the lowest for a most- active contract since August. That suggests the price will drop within a few weeks to $3.31, the lowest price for the May contract last year, Kavanaugh said.
  • S&P 500 Rally Shows Analysts Slow or Investors Sanguine. The advance that pushed the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) to a record left companies trading closer to analyst price estimates than any time in at least seven years. Shares in the index are 5 percent away from analysts’ mean forecasts after the benchmark gauge rallied 10 percent in the first quarter, according to data compiled by Bloomberg starting in 2006. That’s the smallest difference ever for the median stock and compares with the historical average of 14 percent. 
  • Humana(HUM) Among Insurers Winning U.S. Medicare Payment Rise. UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH), Humana Inc. (HUM) and other medical insurers won an increase rather than a reduction in U.S. payments for Medicare Advantage plans starting next year. Humana shares jumped 9.8 percent in late trading. The February proposal for a 2.2 percent cut in a rate that determines the payments is being revised to a 3.3 percent increase, according to a decision today by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. The change came after insurers and more than 130 lawmakers complained the Obama administration relied on faulty accounting assumptions.
  • Small-Business Insurance Market Promised by Health Law Delayed. Small-business employees will have to wait a year before they can choose their own medical-coverage after the Obama administration delayed implementation of a provision in the 2010 U.S. health-care law. Starting in 2014, workers at companies with fewer than 100 employees were supposed to have been able to choose from a variety of health plans through new small-business insurance marketplaces. They’ll instead wait until at least 2015, according to regulations released by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. In the meantime, small-business employees will face a situation similar to what most companies offer, with their employers choosing the coverage. Health insurers will still offer the plans, though they’ll be competing for business from companies, not individuals.
Wall Street Journal: 
  • Regulators Let Big Banks Look Safer Than They Are. Capital-ratio rules are upside down—fully collateralized loans are considered riskier than derivatives positions. The recent Senate report on the J.P. Morgan Chase "London Whale" trading debacle revealed emails, telephone conversations and other evidence of how Chase managers manipulated their internal risk models to boost the bank's regulatory capital ratios. Risk models are common and certainly not illegal. Nevertheless, their use in bolstering a bank's capital ratios can give the public a false sense of security about the stability of the nation's largest financial institutions. Capital ratios (also called capital adequacy ratios) reflect the percentage of a bank's assets that are funded with equity and are a key barometer of the institution's financial strength—they measure the bank's ability to absorb losses and still remain solvent. This should be a simple measure, but it isn't. That's because regulators allow banks to use a process called "risk weighting," which allows them to raise their capital ratios by characterizing the assets they hold as "low risk."  
  • Iran Cools Nuclear Work as Vote Looms. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has decided to keep Iran's nuclear program within limits demanded by Israel for now, according to senior U.S., European and Israeli officials, in a move they believe is designed to avert an international crisis during an Iranian election year.
  • Businesses Stay Cautious About Renting Office Space. Businesses moved slowly to fill office space in the first quarter, reflecting continued caution about the economic recovery. An additional 4 million square feet of office space was leased during the quarter, increasing the amount of occupied space by just 0.12%, according to real-estate research service Reis Inc. Asking rents increased 0.7% to $28.66 a square foot annually, while the national office vacancy rate fell to 17% from 17.1%.
  • Western Union Eyes Digital Currency Services. Western Union is trying to transform its business for the digital generation. In addition to mobile and online payments, the company is looking at digital currency services.
  • Gulf States Curtail Online Dissent. Some Persian Gulf monarchies have been shutting down critics who use social media to spread their views, in response to rising dissent unleashed by the region's Arab Spring rebellions.
  • Wind-Power Subsidies? No Thanks. I'm in the green-energy business. If Washington sent a little less 'green' our way, it would be good for the industry.
Fox News: 
  • China mobilizing troops, jets near N. Korean border, US officials say. China has placed military forces on heightened alert in the northeastern part of the country as tensions mount on the Korean peninsula following recent threats by Pyongyang to attack, U.S. officials said. Reports from the region reveal the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) recently increased its military posture in response to the heightened tensions, specifically North Korea's declaration of a "state of war" and threats to conduct missile attacks against the United States and South Korea. According to the officials, the PLA has stepped up military mobilization in the border region with North Korea since mid-March, including troop movements and warplane activity. China's navy also conducted live-firing naval drills by warships in the Yellow Sea that were set to end Monday near the Korean peninsula, in apparent support of North Korea, which was angered by ongoing U.S.-South Korean military drills that are set to continue throughout April. 
MarketWatch.com:
Zero Hedge: 
Business Insider: 
Reuters:
  • Spain to revise down 2013 GDP growth target to -1 percent. Spain will revise down its economic growth forecast for 2013 next week and seek more time from the European Union to reduce its budget deficit as recession cuts deeper than previously expected, a government source told Reuters. Spain's gross domestic product (GDP) will be forecast to shrink by 1 percent, rather than 0.5 percent, the source said, adding that the government intended to shift emphasis to growth rather than deficit reduction. Spain will increase its 2013 deficit target to 6 percent of GDP, from an existing forecast of 4.5 percent. 
  • March was bloodiest month in Syria war: rights group. March was the bloodiest month yet in Syria's two-year conflict, with more than 6,000 people killed, a third of them civilians, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said on Monday. The group opposes President Bashar al-Assad but has monitored human rights violations on both sides of a revolt that began as peaceful protests but is now a brutal war between forces loyal to Assad and an array of rebel militias. The Britain-based Observatory, which has a network of sources across Syria, has documented 62,554 dead in the conflict, said Rami Abdelrahman, the head of the group. "But we know the number is much, much higher," he told Reuters by telephone. "We estimate it is actually around 120,000 people. Many death tolls are more difficult to document so we are not officially including them yet."
  • Nasdaq(NDAQ) to buy eSpeed platform for $750 mln. Nasdaq OMX Group Inc agreed to buy the eSpeed platform from BGC Partners Inc for $750 million in cash, providing the exchange operator an entry point in the electronic fixed income business - one of the largest and the most liquid cash markets in the world. The deal gives Nasdaq more exposure to fixed income markets, at a time when falling stock trading volumes have spurred the exchange operator to find other income sources.
  • A fiscal warning from two former U.S. budget chiefs. Two former U.S. budget chiefs who worked for presidents from opposing political parties said on Monday that the government should reduce military spending, scale back Social Security payments and end decade-old income tax cuts to reduce the federal deficit. 
Financial Times:
Telegraph: 
The Standard:
Shanghai Securities News:
  • China 2nd Mortgage Rules May Vary City to City. People's Bank of China won't make unified requirements for down payments and interest rates on second home mortgages after local governments announced detailed property curbs, citing a person familiar with the matter. Local branches of the central bank can "appropriately" raise both requirements, the report said.
Evening Recommendations 
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 122.0 -.5 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 98.0 +.5 basis point.
  • FTSE-100 futures -.09%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.04%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.05%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (GPN)/.89
  • (PBY)/.05
  • (MKC)/.56  
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
  • Factory Orders for February are estimated to rise +2.9% versus a -2.0% decline in January.
Afternoon:
  • Total Vehicle Sales for March are estimated to fall to 15.3M versus 15.33M in February.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Lockhart speaking, Fed's Kocherlakota speaking, Fed's Evans speaking, Fed's Lacker speaking, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone Unemployment data, German Consumer Confidence, China Non-Manufacturing PMI, ISM New York for March, weekly retail sales reports and the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index for April could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

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