Thursday, November 03, 2016

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines
  • Is China Repeating Japan’s Missteps? Beijing may seem dynamic, but it’s heading down a path we’ve seen before. China and Japan may seem to inhabit alternative economic universes. After more than two decades of stagnation, Japan is a fading global power that can’t seem to revive its fortunes no matter what unorthodox gimmicks it tries. By contrast, China’s ascent to superpower status appears relentless as it gains wealth, technology, and ambition.
  • IMF Knocks on Doors in Quest for Intelligence on Chinese Banks. As part of the International Monetary Fund’s biggest review of China’s banking system in half a decade, a top official recently did some detective work that didn’t involve an Excel spreadsheet. On a trip to the mega-city of Chongqing in the nation’s interior, Ratna Sahay, acting director of the IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department, visited a property fair. Her objective was to learn more about typical real-estate sales transactions, amid rising risks of property bubbles across the world’s No. 2 economy. After talking with developers, she came away with mixed feelings.
  • Billionaire Wang Purchases Dick Clark Productions for $1 Billion.
  • It’s Not Just Trump Casting Political Cloud Over Southeast Asia. Foreign investors pulled out of Thailand stocks at the fastest pace this year in October. The Philippine peso has sunk close to levels last traded during the global financial crisis. Malaysia’s currency is also in a funk. The common denominator is heightened political risk -- from President Rodrigo Duterte’s stinging attacks on the U.S. and his violent crackdown on crime in the Philippines to the death of King Bhumibol Adulyadej in Thailand that’s removed an anchor of stability in the country. Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak, meanwhile, is embroiled in a funding scandal that’s being investigated by authorities around the world.
  • Japanese Households in the Era of Abe and KurodaEquity holdings have grown but pay and consumption have stalled.
  • Asian Stocks Extend Pre-Vote Slide as Crude Oil Trades Below $45. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.7 percent as of 9:24 a.m. Tokyo time, with all 10 industry groups losing ground. Japan’s Topix index sank 1.3 percent from Wednesday’s close.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider: 
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 118.75 +.25 basis point. 
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 36.25 unch.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.18 -.06%
  • S&P 500 futures +.12%
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.07%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

  • (AES)/.33
  • (DUK)/1.58
  • (HUM)/3.15
  • (REGN)/2.70
  • (SNH)/.46
  • (WLH)/.34
  • (BRK/B)/3056.76
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Trade Deficit for September is estimated at -$38.0B versus -$40.7B in August.   
  • The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for October is estimated to rise to 175K versus 156K in September.
  • The Unemployment Rate for October is estimated to fall to 4.9% versus 5.0% in September.
  • Average Hourly Earnings MoM for October is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.2% gain in September.    
Upcoming Splits 
  • (ICE) 5-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Fischer speaking, Fed's Lockhart speaking, Fed's Kaplan speaking, Eurozone Services PMI report and the (FAST) October sales report could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

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