Monday, November 21, 2016

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Oil Bounce, Short-Covering, Commodity/Gaming Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Slightly Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.44 -3.27%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 123.11 +.38%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.0 -1.35%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 29.78 n/a
  • ISE Sentiment Index 96.0 +37.14%
  • Total Put/Call .82 -12.77%
  • NYSE Arms .69 -38.45
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 75.68 -.78%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 633.0 +2.52%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 108.75 +.04%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 22.14 +.87%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 44.35 -1.17%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 272.91 -2.66%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 132.89 +.08%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 21.75 -2.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 48.0 -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -53.50 -2.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.51 +.41%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .43% unch.
  • Yield Curve 125.0 -3.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $70.34/Metric Tonne -3.37%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 5.60 -2.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 43.2 +2.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -6.0 -.2 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.95% unch.
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate hike at Feb. 1 meeting, 100.0% chance at March 15 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +54 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +15 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +11 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my medical/tech/retail/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

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