Tuesday, December 13, 2016

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Economic Optimism, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Yen Weakness, Tech/Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Slightly Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.1 +3.8%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 127.84 +.03%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.12 -1.51%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.55 -1.56%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 108.0 +44.0%
  • Total Put/Call .60 -25.0%
  • NYSE Arms .92 +3.87%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.38 -.57%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 437.0 -11.03%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 93.30 -1.01%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 19.78 -12.8%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 36.27 -.06%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 242.69 -.86%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 133.13 +.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 22.0 -.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 43.50 -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -55.0 -.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 70.34 +.01%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .53% +2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 131.0 -2.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $83.58/Metric Tonne -.19%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 32.60 +2.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 59.0 -1.1 basis points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 3.20 +1.2 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.99% -1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate hike at Feb. 1 meeting, 100.0% chance at March 15 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +90 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +25 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +7 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

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