Tuesday, December 18, 2018

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Fed Rate-Hike Fears, Global Growth Worries, Oil Plunge, Energy/Biotech Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 25.0 +2.2%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.03 -.05%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.67 -.72%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.98 +3.62%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 79.0 +27.4%
  • Total Put/Call 1.11 -17.8%
  • NYSE Arms .87 -24.8%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 81.51 -.09%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 700.0 +2.70%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 104.77 +.65%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 269.25 -1.25 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 9.22 +2.82%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 198.14 -.31%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 150.88 +1.37%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 13.0 -1.25 basis points
  • TED Spread 40.25 +.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -7.25 -.75 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.90 +.13%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.37% -2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 17.0 +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 68.50 USD/Metric Tonne +.78%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -9.4 +3.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -76.20 -2.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.4 unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.82 +1.0 basis point
  • 69.4% chance of Fed rate hike at Jan. 30th meeting, 75.3% chance at March 20th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -5 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +47 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +27 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/retail/medical/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

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