Wednesday, May 05, 2021

Stocks Higher into Afternoon on Economic Optimism, Earnings Outlooks, Stable Long-Term Rates, Commodity/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.3 -6.2%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,217.0 +135.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.5 -.2%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.63 -.21%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 51.5 -1.4%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 99.0 -19.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .83 -3.5%
  • NYSE Arms .70 -36.9%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.93 +.42%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 433.76 -.54%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.26 -.59%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 111.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 79.10 -.19%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 168.10 -1.85%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 39.31 -.15%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 11.5 unch.
  • TED Spread 16.75 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.5 +.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  63.0 unch.
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.5 -.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.69 +.1%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
  • Yield Curve 148.0 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 185.20 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 22.2 -.6 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 159.5 +1.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 51.9 +.1 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.46 +3.0 basis points
  • 89.0% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting, 89.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +338 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -173 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +7 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/industrial/energy sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades:  None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

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