Monday Watch

Today's Headlines 

Bloomberg:                  

• U.S. Urges China to Halt ‘Provocative’ Flybys Near Taiwan.  
• China Steps Up Efforts to Ring-Fence Evergrande, Not to Save it.   
• China’s Energy Crisis Highlights Weaknesses in Xi’s Power Plans. 
• U.K. Plans All Electricity From Renewable Sources by 2035: Times.
• U.K. Drivers Face Higher Petrol Prices as Troops Deployed.  
• Europe’s Power Crisis Is Moving North as Water Shortage Worsens.  
• Puerto Ricans Fume as Outages Threaten Health, Work, School.    
• Asian Stocks Set for Gains; Dollar Holds Losses: Markets Wrap.
• OPEC+ Will Drive Oil Prices Over Coming Months, Says Vitol.   
• U.S. Payrolls Hinge on Progress With Record Vacancies: Eco Week.
• Progressives Offer to Cut Spending Short to Save Biden Plan.
• Vaccine Mandates Hit Amid Historic Health-Care Staff Shortage. Nearly one in four beds lies empty at TaraVista Behavioral Health Center in central Massachusetts -- not for lack of patients, but for lack of staff. Even before the pandemic, nurses and lower-paid aides were in perennially short supply, but the 116-bed facility could still run full, said Chief Executive Officer Michael Krupa. At similar hospitals around Massachusetts, hundreds of beds can’t be filled, and “the reason is exclusively staff,” he said. What some are calling the worst U.S. health-care labor crisis in memory is sharpening concerns about attrition from resistance to vaccine mandates -- even in the medical mecca of Massachusetts, where Covid cases remain well within hospital capacity. About 16% of American hospitals had critical staffing shortages as of Oct. 1, according to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.
  
• Pandora Papers Highlight How Wealthy Use Offshore Companies.  
• Amazon Makes a Robot Bet That Apple Wouldn’t—But Consumers Aren’t Ready. 
• A Stock Trader’s Guide to Navigating the Global Energy Crisis. 
• Delta to Ramp Up Boston Service, Add New International Routes.

Wall Street Journal:

• Robots Take Over Italy’s Vineyards Amid Worker Shortages 
• Unlearned AIDS Lessons for Covid. In the 1980s, Fauci and Redfield sowed fear about a heterosexual epidemic that never happened.  
• Will China Save Evergrande?
• Mortgage Payments Are Getting More and More Unaffordable.
• Covid-19 Charges at Hospitals Can Vary by Thousands of Dollars.  
• Abandoning Bagram May Have Cost 13 U.S. Lives.  
• The ACLU Decides ‘Woman’ Is a Bad Word.
• China’s Evergrande Debt Crisis: Sizing Up a Big Mess.
• Medical Device Makers Seek Priority in Chip Shortage.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (TGT), (WMT), (XPO), (HAS), (MAT), (XEC), (MRO), (LNG), (TELL), (MTOR), (CLF) and (X).

Fox News:  

• Dem governor candidate belittles Black group for endorsing Republican.

CNBC:

• Google’s pivot away from bank accounts shows why finance is a tough industry for tech giants.
• Semiconductor chip shortage could extend through 2022, Marvell CEO says.
• Restaurant owners nationwide push to make street-side dining permanent.

Zero Hedge: 

• Reports Of Military Planes At Bagram Air Base Fuel Speculation Of Chinese-Afghan Alliance. 
• $2.2 Million Raised For Marine In Military Detainment After Criticizing Afghan Chaos.
• Hollywood Stageworkers Consider First Strike In History In Threat To "Cripple" Content Studios.
• Corporate Insiders With Impeccable Trading Records Send Clear Signal "Stock Market Is Rigged".
• Goldman On The Biggest Story In The Markets Right Now And 9 Other Observations.
• The Next "Lehman Moment" - Will China Try To Create A Dangerous Diversion?
• NBC Reporter Goes Into Damage Control After NASCAR Fans Chant "F**K Joe Biden".
• J&J Vaccine Possibly Linked To Two More Serious Health Conditions, EU Regulator Finds.
• Progressives Blink First, Offer To Cut Spending Short To Reduce $3.5 Trillion Plan.
• "It's A Really Dangerous Situation" - Afghanistan Faces Imminent Blackouts As Power Bills Skyrocket.
• In Deep Ship: What's Really Driving The Supply-Chain Crisis.
• Tesla Posts Record 241,300 Deliveries In Q3.
• Lessons To Learn From The Recent Decline.
• Kemp: Europe's Rising Energy Prices Will Force Factory Closures.
• "Running Out Of Space" - UK Farmers To Cull 120,000 Pigs Amid Labor Shortages At Slaughterhouses.
• Fed Vice Chair Clarida Traded Millions One Day Before Powell Emergency Pandemic Statement.
• Disinfo Vs. Democracy.
• India's Ivermectin Blackout: The Secret Revealed. 
• Goldman's Stagflationary Horror Chart Book.

NY Times:

• Covid on the Border: Migrants Aren’t Tested on Arrival in U.S. The Border Patrol says it has insufficient time and space to conduct coronavirus testing at crowded processing stations. Officials in border cities fear further spread of the virus.
  
• Covid-19 cases are plunging in the South over the last two weeks despite packed college football games and campuses. Florida -51%(vaccination rate: 57%), Louisiana -43%(vaccination rate: 46%), Tennessee -58%(vaccination rate: 46%), Georgia -40%(vaccination rate: 45%), Texas -38%(vaccination rate: 51%), Mississippi -52%(vaccination rate: 44%) and South Carolina -47%(vaccination rate: 47%), Arkansas -46%(vaccination rate: 46%) and Alabama -41%(vaccination rate: 43%).
• Covid-19 hospitalizations are rising at some of the fastest rates in the country over the last two weeks in three of the most vaccinated states. Maine +20%(vaccination rate: 69%), Vermont +14%(vaccination rate: 70%) and Rhode Island +11%(vaccination rate: 68%).

Reuters:

• Colombia has administered at least 35,750,492 doses of COVID vaccines so far. (graph) Assuming every person needs 2 doses, that’s enough to have vaccinated about 40.1% of the country’s population. COVID-19 infections are decreasing in Colombia, with 1,518 new infections reported on average each day(21 infections per 100K people reported last 7 days). That’s 5% of the peak — the highest daily average reported on June 27.
• South Africa has administered at least 14,670,161 doses of COVID vaccines so far. Assuming every person needs 2 doses, that’s enough to have vaccinated about 14.9% of the country’s population. COVID-19 infections are decreasing in South Africa, with 1,423 new infections reported on average each day(17 infections per 100K people reported last 7 days). That’s 7% of the peak — the highest daily average reported on July 7.
• Singapore has administered at least 9,403,389 doses of COVID vaccines so far. Assuming every person needs 2 doses, that's enough to have vaccinated about 82.4% of the country's population(4th best rate in world). Singapore is reporting 2,131 new infections on average each day(261 infections per 100K people reported last 7 days), 100% of the peak - the highest daily average reported on Oct. 2.

OANN:

• Sen. Paul: Biden, Fauci Continue To Ignore ‘The Science’ Of Natural Immunity.

NewsMax:

• Biden Loses Support From Independent Voters.
• Sen. Blackburn Slams Unraveling Biden 'Build Back Broke' Agenda.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Science and Medicine are Now Political Weapons Used Against Americans.
• White House Dubs “We Love Joe!” Chant in Video of Congressional Ballgame Appearance to Make Biden Seem Popular.  
• Fired Healthcare Workers in New York Protest Vaccine Mandates by Burning Their Hospital Scrubs (VIDEO).
• Denver Police Officer and Father of Four Takes the Jab and Now Cannot Walk.
• Taiwan Says 77 Chinese Warplanes Enter its Defense Zone in the Span of Two Days.
• What Are They Hiding? UK Government Blacks Out Details of Conversations Between Fauci and British Doctors on COVID’s Origins.
• House Budget Committee Chairman Says The Federal Government “Can Afford Anything” (VIDEO).
• BOOM! Sen. Ron Johnson Drops Truth-Bomb on Senate Floor – 63% of UK Delta Deaths in Last 7.5 Months Were Fully Vaccinated (VIDEO).
• Former Australian Member of Parliament Says Pfizer and AstraZeneca Paid Lobbyists to Direct Australia’s Leaders to Push Vaccine Mandates (VIDEO). 
• “I’m Vaccinated, But I Also Have Covid – And it Spread Through My Entire Family!” – CNBC Host Grills Fauci on Vaccine ‘Breakthrough’ Cases (VIDEO).
  

The Epoch Times:

• Does Collusion Between Wall Street and the CCP Fuel Chinese Trading in US?

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading

• Asian indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 84.25 -.25 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 46.5 unch.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.0 +.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,909.0 -25.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.90 -1.4%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.
• S&P 500 futures +.30%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.34%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (CMTL)/.49
• (PEP)/1.73
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Factory Orders for Aug. is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a +.4% gain in July.
• Factory Orders Ex Transports for Aug. is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.8% gain in July.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone PMI report, HealthTech Innovation Day and the (IBM) investor meeting could also impact trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.