Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Diminished US Virus Mandate/Lockdown Fears, Short-Covering, Oil Gain, Energy/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance:  Mixed
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.0 -1.2%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,296.0 +137.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.17 -.59%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.4 +.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 26.4 -6.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 88.0  -53.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .74 -7.5%

• NYSE Arms .66 -53.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.63 +.17%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 381.53 -1.2%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.76 +.01%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 132.0 -3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 76.97 -1.0%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 185.93 -1.2%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 32.96 +.12%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 19.5 unch.
  

• TED Spread 18.0 unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 2.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  70.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.0 -.25 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.12 +.6%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% +2.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 80.5 unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 120.40 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 17.9 -1.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 36.4 +6.6 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index .9 +2.2 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.63 +4.0 basis points
• 39.5%(-4.0 percentage points) chance of no change at March 16th FOMC meeting, 24.7%(-4.3 percentage points) chance of no change at May 4th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 891 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +195/100K people
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -22.8%(+15.5 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/3/21-1/9/21
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +204 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +40 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +26 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/tech sector longs

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  75% Net Long