Stocks Falling Substantially into Final Hour on Russia/Ukraine War Fears, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Worries, Fed "Behind the Curve" Concerns, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume:  Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 30.4 +5.6%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,938.0 -130.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.90 -.26%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.0 -1.5%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 50.4 +8.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 104.0 +2.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.02 -11.5%

• NYSE Arms .86 -18.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 70.24 +1.4%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 425.17 -.71%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 80.98 +1.4%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 171.0 +3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 102.18 -.7%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 246.60 +6.6%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 31.23 -.48% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 1,041.31 +15.5%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 20.0 +.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 14.5 -.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.5 -1.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  106.0 +5.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 51.29 -.14%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.31 -.23%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .35% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 41.0 unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 138.80 USD/Metric Tonne +1.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 31.5 -.2 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 65.2 -2.0 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 38.1 +.7 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.54 +7.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 186 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 11.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak -3/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -70.6%(-1.0 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -85 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -97 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -131 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my commodity sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 25% Net Long