Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• ADB Downgrades Asia GDP Forecast as China Sticks To Covid Zero.
• Biden Expects to Speak With China’s Xi Within Next 10 Days.
• Yuan Shorts Gather Pace on Lockdown Threat, Property Sector Risk.
  
• Europe Counts Down to Dawn as Russia Gas Pipe Set to Restart.  
• Korean Early Exports Rise in Sign of Resilient Global Demand.
  
• Don’t Forget to Turn Off the Lights, French Government Urges.
• Japan Logs Trade Deficit for 11th Month on Energy, Weak Yen.
• Stock Rally Sputters in Asia as Dollar Advances: Markets Wrap.
• Microsoft Cuts Many Open Job Listings in Weakening Economy.
  
• Lyft Plans to Shut Down Its Car-Rental Unit and Cut About 60 Jobs.
  
• Microsoft, Google Are Latest Tech Giants to Hit Brakes on Hiring.
• Bitcoin Erases Gains After Tesla Discloses Second-Quarter Sales.  
• United Air Cuts 2023 Growth Plans as Flight Disruptions Persist.   
• Stocks Latest Rally Has Bears Calling It Just a Bounce.

Wall Street Journal:    

• Putin’s Gas Game: Toy With Europe’s Supply and Make Its Leaders Squirm.
• Crypto Market Rout Shows Dangers of Margin Lending.
• Putin Says Russia Will Honor Europe Gas Commitments but Warns of New Curbs.
• U.S. Starts Trade Fight With Mexico Over Energy Policy.
• Proposal Would Clarify Vice President’s Role in Vote Certification.
• The Senate’s Semiconductor Spending Trick. How a $76 billion bill became $250 billion. Hide the children.
• Robinhood Was Behind Phantom Surge in Berkshire Trade Volume, Study Finds.
• Travel Anxiety Is Soaring: Are Mindfulness Gadgets the Solution?
• Why More People Are Dating Without Drinking.

Fox News:

• Conservatives, journos criticize NPR's new 'disinformation reporting team,' recall Hunter Biden dismissal.
• Twitter erupts after Biden suggests home-state oil refinery gave him cancer.

CNBC.com:

• Tesla grows revenue 42%, but automotive margins decline.
• Tesla has dumped 75% of its bitcoin holdings a year after touting ‘long-term potential’.
• Mortgage demand drops to a 22-year low as higher interest rates and inflation crush homebuyers.
• Raimondo warns of ‘deep and immediate recession’ if U.S. cut off from Taiwan chip manufacturing. 
  

MarketWatch:         

• Who can afford a home? Roughly 60% of the U.S. could be frozen out of starter homes, warns S&P.
  
• Chip stocks rally despite an ominous forecast, as U.S. semiconductor funding bill advances in Senate.
  
• The news from this giant volcano suggests world economy getting worse — and the U.S. may be to blame.
  
• These are the airlines with the most delays and cancellations.

Zero Hedge: 

• Bitcoin Slides After Tesla Admits Dumping Most Of Its Crypto In Q1.
• Tesla Pumps And Dumps After Earnings Beat; Sells 75% Of All Bitcoins.
• "We Decided To Stop Paying": China's Mortgage Payment Boycott Spreads As Property Suppliers Refuse To Pay Their Bills.
• Current Flu Season More Severe Than COVID: Australian State Premier.
• ESG Funds Are Quietly Buying Oil Stocks.
• Biden Approval Rating Hits New All-Time Low Of 31%, Now 'Underwater' With Own Party.
• George Soros Gave $1 Million To Help Beto O'Rourke Unseat Texas Gov. Greg Abbott.
• Battery Replacement Of Family's EV Ford Focus Would Cost More Than Car Itself.
• Russia Declares War Goals Have Expanded After West Pumped More Arms Into Ukraine.
• Wall St. shrugged off European geopolitical concerns with tech underpinned by Netflix - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Taibbi: The Great American Military Rebrand.
• Strengthening Ties With Iran, Putin Meets With Supreme Leader In Tehran.
• Ford Plans To Cut 8,000 Jobs To Help Fund EV Endeavors.
• TME Daily: Consensus complacency turns into complicated confusion.
• "This Is Just The Beginning": Starbucks CEO Warns Of More Store Closures In Leaked Video.
• Italy Government On Verge Of Collapse After Coalition Members Abandon Draghi; Euro Tumbles.
• US outperforms as Italy's crisis, NS1 angst, and Ukraine woes hit Europe - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Army Set To Cut Force-Size By 20,000 Amid "Unprecedented Challenges" In Recruitment.
• Big-Tech & Bitcoin Jump, Bonds & Bullion Dump As Housing Market Slumps.

Newsmax:

• Yellen Welcomes Ukraine Debt Freeze, Calls on Creditors to Join.
• Russia Won't Supply Oil to the World Market if Price Caps Imposed.
• Rep. Burgess: Biden's Missteps 'Purposefully Destructive'.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• NEW: Federal Investigators Weigh Charges Against Hunter Biden as Probe Enters Final Stages.
• The Deep State Coup’s Final Assault on President Trump: DOJ Blocked Release Declassified Documents that Revealed Truth of Trump-Russia Lies as Trump Requested.
• Biden To Use Executive Powers To ‘Combat Climate Crisis’: ‘Since Congress Is Not Acting As It Should…This Is An Emergency’.
• Buttigieg Says He’s “Astonished” That People “Seem to Really Struggle to Let Go” of Their Gas-Powered Vehicles in Favor of $65,000 Electric Vehicles (VIDEO).
• Biden Set to PURGE 27.5% of Army (Or More) Who Aren’t Fully Vaccinated Against COVID with Non-FDA Approved Vaccine.
• FBI Investigated Decision by NIH, Fauci and Dr. Collins to Fund Wuhan Lab – And Its Controversial Testing of Bat Coronavirus — BUT SAID NOTHING!

The Epoch Times: 

• SEC Chief Says It’s Unknown If China Can Avoid Its Companies Being Delisted From US Markets.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 842,573 Reports(+3,276 from prior week) Through July 8th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 170.75 unch. 

• China Sovereign CDS 85.25 +1.0 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 49.14 -.01%.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,619.0 +72.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 26.5 +.7%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.48%.

• S&P 500 futures -.15%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.17%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (AIR)/.73
• (ABB)/.41
• (ALK)/1.95
• (AAL)/.75
• (T)/.63
• (AN)/6.22
• (BX)/1.46
• (DHI)/4.52
• (DHR)/2.34
• (DPZ)/2.90
• (DOW)/2.13
• (FITB)/.87
• (FCX)/.68
• (HRI)/2.62
• (KEY)/.52
• (NUE)/8.69
• (PM)/1.25
• (POOL)/7.36
• (DGX)/2.26
• (SAP)/1.08
• (SNA)/3.95
• (TSCO)/3.52
• (TRV)/1.97
• (UNP)/2.84
  

After the Close:

• (BJRI)/.26
• (SAM)/4.62
• (COF)/5.05
• (ISRG)/1.20
• (MAT)/.06
• (PPG)/1.72
• (RHI)/1.59
• (STX)/1.89
• (SNAP)/-.032
• (THC)/.84
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST:

• The Philly Fed Business Outlook Index for July is estimated to rise to .8 versus -3.3 in June.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 240K versus 244K prior.
• Continuing Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 1340K versus 1331K the prior week.
  

10:00 am EST

• The Leading Index for June is estimated to fall -.6% versus a -.4% decline in May.

Upcoming Splits

• (GME) 4-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The ECB rate decision, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the (CRTD) investor day could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.