Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Loose US Financial Conditions, Meme Stock Frenzy, Short-Covering, Tech/Transport Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume:  Heavy

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 18.8 +5.1%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .87%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 55.5 -6.5%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 145.73 -.97%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.2 +.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 31.5 -3.6% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 129.0 +39.0 point
  

• Total Put/Call .76 -14.6%

• NYSE Arms 1.23 -8.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 66.76 -3.4%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 345.47 -3.4%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 314.0 -3.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 80.91 -6.7% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 348.44 -2.0%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 182.0 basis points -19.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 100.77 -4.3%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 208.8 -2.2%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.93 -.43%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 29.5 basis points +1.75 basis points
  

• TED Spread 18.5 basis points +3.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -10.75 +.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  122.0 -8.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 106.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .71 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.8 +.06%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.62% -3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 123.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.8%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 57.0 euros/megawatt-hour -4.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -11.0- -.2 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 97.7 -3.6 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 2.4 -.3 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 224.81 -.20:  Growth Rate +.6% -.3 percentage point, P/E 18.6 +.5
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.23% -5.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .36 +2.0 basis points
  
• Yield Curve -69.5 basis points (2s/10s) +4.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +.67% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.30% unch.: CPI YoY +6.44% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.23 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 3rd FOMC meeting: 59.7%(+3.8 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for June 14th meeting: 56.5%(+3.6 percentage point) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 91 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 5.2%(-0.0 percentage points) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -81.8%(-.1 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +53 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -69 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +21 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/medical/industrial/utility sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long