Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on US Soft-Landing Hopes, Meme Stock Frenzy, Loosening US Financial Conditions, Retail/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 18.3 -3.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .76%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 63.5 +1.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 148.9 +.27%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.7 -4.7%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 31.7 -2.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 119.0 +18.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .85 -11.5%

• NYSE Arms .73 -27.7%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 71.4 +.32%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 355.04 -.38%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 326.0 +1.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 84.7 -1.1% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 381.9 +.2%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 186.0 basis points +7.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 109.67 +.67%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 227.6 +.41%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.5 -.38%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 35.0 basis points +1.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 11.5 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -8.25 +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  147.0 unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 102.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .66 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.7 -.56%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.75% +2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 123.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.29%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 54.7 euros/megawatt-hour +4.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 36.0 +12.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 82.7 -3.4 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 7.0 +.9 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 224.06 +.11:  Growth Rate +.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 18.4 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.44% +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .50 +7.0 basis points
  
• Yield Curve -82.0 basis points (2s/10s) +3.25 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.42% +26.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.30% unch.: CPI YoY +6.24% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 +4.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 3rd FOMC meeting: 71.0%(-4.3 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for June 14th meeting: 46.6%(-5.1 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 84 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.8%(-0.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -83.4%(+0.0 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +134 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +43 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +83 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my industrial/tech/medical sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long