Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, China Economy Concerns, Technical Selling, Financial/Biotech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.6 -1.6%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .75% +42.4%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 63.1 -2.4%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 172.7 +.5%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.78 -.77%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 23.8 -3.0% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 119.0 -4.0
  

• Total Put/Call .91 -7.1%

• NYSE Arms 1.38 +1.47% 
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$37.9M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 69.30 -1.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 347.05 +1.76%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 376 +9
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 87.7 -2.0% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 265.7 +.03%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 186.0 basis points -3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 113.32 -4.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 210.56 -.86%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 122.87 -1.7%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.8 unch.

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -15.25 basis points +.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 20.25 basis points -.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.75 -2.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 170.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 908.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 98.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.60 -.18%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.42% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 125.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 45.78 euros/megawatt-hour -.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 50.6 +.1 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -45.2 -.1 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 22.2 +1.3 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(424 of 500 reporting) +2.2% -.3 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 239.84 +.08:  Growth Rate +8.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 18.2 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.14% +1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +38.4% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 274.84 +.13: Growth Rate +62.1% unch., P/E 28.4 unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .12 +5.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .81 -2.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -40.75 basis points (2s/10s) -6.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.09% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.63% unch.: CPI YoY +3.28% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 -3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Jan. 31st FOMC meeting: 82.9%(-1.7 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 20th meeting: 68.2%(+1.8 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +143 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +1 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +50 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long