Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Rising Fed Rate-Cut Odds, Diminishing Yen Carry Trade Unwind Worries, Lower Long-Term Rates, Financial/Retail Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average
  

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.9 -2.3%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .64 +6.1%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 54.5 +3.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 179.3 -.7%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.3 -1.6%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 14.2 -.6% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 153.0 +23.0
  

• Total Put/Call .84 -12.5%

• NYSE Arms 1.15 +88.5%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$64.5M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.2 -2.1%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 301.0 -.18%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 259 -1
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.8 -1.7%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 166.7 -2.2%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 139.0 basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 96.3 -2.3%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 168.7 +.71%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 142.6 +2.3%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.03 +.14%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -19.5 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -10.75 basis points -.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.75 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 140.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 700.0 -9.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 66.0 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.08 +.08%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.21% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 93.0 USD/Metric Tonne +1.1%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 39.6 euros/megawatt-hour +.11%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -36.6 -1.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -58.9 -.1

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -11.2 -1.1 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(463 of 500 reporting) +8.5% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 264.23 +.05:  Growth Rate +15.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.0 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.68% -4.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +26.3% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 342.52 +.18: Growth Rate +27.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.8 +.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .89 +13.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .71 unch.
  
• US Yield Curve -17.5 basis points (2s/10s) +.5 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +1.99% -92 basis points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 68.9% +1.0 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.64% unch.: CPI YoY +2.60% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.10 -2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th FOMC meeting: 62.3%(+.4 percentage point) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th meeting: 42.7%(+1.9 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -318 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +2 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +90 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/utility sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long