Stocks Surging into Afternoon on Falling Long-Term Rates, Fed Rate-Cut Hopes, Diminished Yen Carry Trade Unwind Fears, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average
  

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 19.0 -8.3%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .86 +1.6%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 44.0 +9.8%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 177.46 +.17%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.79 +.11%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 19.5 -5.4% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 132.0 +14.0
  

• Total Put/Call .88 -14.6%

• NYSE Arms 1.39 +36.3%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$224.1M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.9 -2.6%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 320.10 +1.4%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 261 +6
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 70.0 +.02%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 183.0 +.8%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 139.0 basis points -3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 102.3 +1.1%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 178.4 -.8%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 143.9 +5.3%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.9 +.17%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -21.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -14.75 basis points -2.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.5 -.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 146.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 709.0 +6.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 64.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.0 +.29%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.18% -3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 98.3 USD/Metric Tonne -.31%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 39.5 euros/megawatt-hour -.45%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -31.1 +1.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -57.1 -6.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -10.9 -5.4 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(456 of 500 reporting) +9.2% n/a
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 264.47 n/a:  Growth Rate +15.9% n/a, P/E 20.4 n/a
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.74% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +26.3% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 342.22 n/a: Growth Rate +27.6% n/a, P/E 31.7 n/a
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .55 -4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .61 +12.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -9.75 basis points (2s/10s) +1.75 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.91% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 69.8% -1.0 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.73% unch.: CPI YoY +3.01% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.10 -2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th FOMC meeting: 51.2%(+1.2 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.75%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th meeting: 43.3%(-3.3 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +142 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -35 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +95 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/biotech/consumer discretionary/utility sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long