Stocks Modestly Lower into Final Hour on Mideast War Resumption Worries, Fed Rate-Hike Concerns, Oil Bounce, Financial/Consumer Discretionary Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.82 +.7%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 69.1 -.5% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .26 unch.
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.24 +3.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.0 +2.8%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 142.0 +.6%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 57.1 +1.5% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .5 unch.
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 91.3 -.1

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 58.6 -.1

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 3.10 +.5

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 36.1 -.6
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(15 of 500 reporting) +174.4% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 372.56 +.03:  Growth Rate +26.7% unch., P/E 20.0 -.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.63% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +1,226.6% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 897.46 -1.50: Growth Rate +73.1% -.3 percentage point, P/E 19.1 -.1 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.20 +3.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 36.25 basis points (2s/10s) -.5 basis point
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 169.8 -1.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 48.8 euros/megawatt-hour +4.8%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 15.1% -.4 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +1.3% -.1 percentage point
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.56% +1.0 basis point
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 1.53 +10.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for September 29th FOMC meeting: 51.5% (+2.4 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th meeting: 47.2%(+.3 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +930 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -246 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +48 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +250 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs and index hedges
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long