Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Mideast War Resolution Hopes, Oil Plunge, Sector Rotation, Consumer Discretionary/Transport Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.3 +.3%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 69.5 +1.1% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .36 -1.0 basis point
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .15 +10.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 73.5 -.7% 
• Emerging Market CDS Index 168.2 -.6% 
• Israel Sovereign CDS 58.6 -5.4% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .4 unch.
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 83.2 -2.2

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 51.4 -1.0

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 6.3 +1.7

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 38.8 +3.1
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(309 of 500 reporting) +29.3% +4.1 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 414.30 +.85:  Growth Rate +26.4% +.4 percentage point, P/E 18.4 -.3
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.35% -6.0 percentage points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(6 of 10 reporting) +41.2% -12.2 percentage points
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 1,100.90 +3.48: Growth Rate +63.9% +.5 percentage point, P/E 16.1 -.5
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .74 -10.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 31.0 basis points (2s/10s) -2.75 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 175.25 +1.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 94.4 euros/megawatt-hour -9.1%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 12.6% unch.
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +3.7% +.5 percentage point
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.89% -4.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.39 -20.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for Jan. 27th FOMC meeting: 61.2% (+.9 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for March 17th meeting: 42.7%(+2.7 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -120 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -141 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating -35 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating -5 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts 
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% net long