Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• China’s August Exports Shrink as Tariff War Hurts U.S. Sales.

• Embattled Johnson Proceeds With Brexit Plan Despite Tory Turmoil.    

• Grim Trade Plus Modest Easing Keeps China Stimulus Debate Alive.

• Central Hong Kong Beset With Violence After Lam's Big Concession.  

• EM Rally Hinges on Draghi Being the Dove Traders Want Him to Be.

• Saudi King Installs Prince as Oil Minister as Al-Falih Ousted.

• Iran’s Dark Fleet of Tankers Poses Oil Market’s Biggest Mystery.

• Asian Stocks Set For Muted Start to the Week. Stocks in Asia looked set for a muted start to the week amid further signs of economic softening alongside moves by monetary policy makers to address them. Futures in Japan and Australia were little changed, with contracts in Hong Kong edging higher. On Friday, the People’s Bank of China said it will cut the amount of cash banks must hold as reserves to the lowest level since 2007, injecting liquidity into an economy facing both a domestic slowdown and trade-war headwinds. U.S. stocks and the 10-year Treasury yield were little changed Friday as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s last speech before next week’s policy meeting cemented views for another interest-rate reduction. The S&P 500 Index rose 0.1% on Friday. Futures on Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.1%. Hang Seng futures added 0.2%. Futures on Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index slid 0.1%.  

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.

• Amgen’s(AMGN) Gene-Targeting Drug Shrank 54% of Lung Tumors in Study.

• More Democrats Question Biden’s Ability to Beat Donald Trump.

Wall Street Journal:

• Negative Bond Yields Bring Positive Returns.

• Workers Flee Big Cities—and Take Their Jobs With Them.

• Apple Bets More Cameras Can Keep iPhone Humming.

• Manufacturers Cut Spending as Trade War Dents Confidence.

• Hong Kong Protesters Flood Streets to Call for U.S. Support.

• China Says Growth Is Fine. Private Data Show a Sharper Slowdown.

• High Debt Levels Are Weighing on Economies.

• WeWork Parent Weighs Further Valuation Cut.

• Bahamas Officials Struggle to Coordinate Recovery from Massive Hit by Dorian.

• As U.S. Cracks Down on Iran’s Oil Sales, It Calls Out an Ally.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (LULU), (T), (GLU), (MCK) and (DHI).

Fox News:

• Google(GOOG) search results manipulated to favor Hillary in 2016 election: researcher.

• 6 suspects in brutal murder of Maryland man are gang members in US illegally, ICE says.

CNBC:

• As investors scramble for income, these are the best dividend ETFs, according to Morningstar.

• Why Wall Street changed its mind on Activision Blizzard(ATVI).

• JP Morgan has created an index to track the effect of Trump’s tweets on financial markets.

• JP Morgan is close to winning a lead role in history’s biggest IPO: Saudi Aramco.

• China’s exports to the US are falling sharply as Trump escalates the trade war.

Zero Hedge: 

• America's 100 Largest Landowners... And Here Is What They Own.

• Who Is Buying Bonds With Negative Yields? JPMorgan Answers.

• Drone Bubble Implodes, Wipes Out Startups And Hammers VC Firms.

• Universal Basic Income + Automation + Plutocracy = Dystopia.

• Silicon Valley's 'Neoliberal Takeover Of The Human Body' To Supercharge Spending.

• Baltimore On Track For Record Homicides As City Descends Into Chaos.

• Brexit - As Explained To The Bemused And Befuddled.

• "Manifestly Criminal" College-Scam Parents Must Go To Prison: DOJ.

• Former Prosecutor Says BoJo Could Wind Up In Prison If He Refuses Brexit Delay.

• Hong Kong Protesters Urge Trump To "Liberate" City In March On US Consulate.

• Socialism Sucks: Two Economists Drink Their Way Through The Unfree World.

• China's Long Con: A Paper Tiger In A Fragile Economy.

Business Insider:

• Goldman Sachs analyzed 4,481 IPOs over 25 years and concluded that these 5 attributes can make or break a newly public company.

• Most kids today dream of influencer fame, but YouTubers are warning their young fans about anxiety, exploitation, and burnout.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 58.75 unch.

• China Sovereign CDS 39.75 -1.0 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.76 -.01%.

• FTSE 100 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures +.06%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.09%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• None of note

After the Close:

• (CASY)/2.03

• (CTRP)/.30

Economic Releases

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for July is estimated at $16.35B versus $14.596B in June.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The UK Industrial Production report, UBS Business Services/Leisure/Transport Conference, CSFB Steel/Mining Conference, Morgan Stanley Healthcare Conference, Barclays Financial Services Conference, CSFB Basic Materials Conference, Janney Montgomery Healthcare Conference and the (CR) financial analyst meeting could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

• Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters. 
• Weekly Market Outlook by Yahoo. (video)
• Global Economy Week by Bloomberg.
• Stocks to Watch Next Week by Seeking Alpha.
• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly higher on less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield debt angst, technical buying, diminished China trade tensions, oil strength, diminished global growth concerns and short-covering. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:        

• Iran Says It’s No Longer Abiding by Uranium Enrichment Limit.

• Police Prevent Airport Chaos, Barricade Burns: Hong Kong Update.   

• U.S. Is Still Considering French Wine Tariffs in G-7 Reversal.

• Merkel Has Made a U-Turn on China But It May Be Too Late.

• Vaping Injuries Left a Trail of Dire Cases Around the U.S.

• Powell Waves Off Recession Fear While Leaving Rate Cuts on Table.

• Apple’s New iPhones Launch on Tuesday. Here’s What to Expect.   

• Your Weekend Reading: Fed Sticks to the Script. 
  

• Boris Johnson Trapped, Merkel Warily Eyes China: Weekend Reads.

Wall Street Journal:

• Iran Moves to Boost Uranium Stockpile.

• CNN Climate Show Wasn’t Just Boring.

• In the Bahamas, Days of Desperation After Dorian Hits.

• In the Race to Dominate 5G, China Sprints Ahead.

• Workers Are Fleeing Big Cities—and Taking Their Jobs With Them.

• Deaths Prompt Alert About Vaping Risks.

• WeWork’s List of Potential Conflicts Adds to Questions Ahead of IPO.

• Buyout Firms Seek to Acquire Symantec for More Than $16 Billion.

MarketWatch.com:

• Apple(AAPL) iPhone launch event: 5 things to watch for.

Fox News:

• Stranded Bahamians try to leave island destroyed by Dorian as death toll rises: ‘Only animals can live here’.

• Biden dismisses latest verbal gaffe at Dem event as 'Freudian slip'.

CNBC:

• Trump’s recession toolkit could include tax cuts and infrastructure spending.

• Here’s where the jobs are — in one chart.

• Special chart suggests the market is starting a hot streak.

• The 10 fastest-growing jobs of the next decade—and what they pay.

Zero Hedge:

• Russia Formally Warns Google, Facebook Against Election 'Interference' & Meddling.

• Trucking Recession: Heavy-Duty Truck Orders Collapse, Production Slashed, Cancellation Orders Soar.

• Amusing Poll On Brexit Preferences.

• Leprosy Could Be The Next Public Health Crisis To Hit Los Angeles.

• George Soros Is Lobbying Lawmakers To Take Your Guns Away.

• Researchers Blame Marriage Rate Decline On A "Lack Of Economically-Attractive Men"

• China RRR Cuts Are Not Stimulus, They Are A Warning!

• Trump Congratulates "Both Countries" As Russia And Ukraine De-Escalate Tensions With Prisoner Swap.

• China Is Using Fentanyl As "Chemical Warfare" Against US, Experts Say.

• It's Now "Incendiary" To Say There Are Two Genders.

• Powell Doesn't Change His Tune... And Rabobank Sees Fed Cutting To Zero.

• ThinkProgress Website Shuts Down After Failing To Find Buyer.

• Stocks & Bond Yields Rise On Trade War Hope, Commodities Collapse Most In 28 Years.

Business Insider:

• Officials are investigating 4 deaths and more than 450 cases of serious lung disease tied to vaping. Here are all the health risks you should know about.

• Beyond Meat’s blockbuster year has ignited the plant-based food industry. Here are 6 companies that have launched fake 'meat' products to compete.

• 400 murders a day: 10 reasons why Latin America is the world's most violent place.

• Now's the time to invest in biotech, according to VCs who've analyzed 1,227 early-stage biotech startups. Here's why they're so sure.

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 2,981.27 +2.01%

 
























The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

 
Indices

• DJIA 26,823.67 +1.73%

• NASDAQ 8,122.37 +1.87%

• Russell 2000 1,508.93 +1.12%

• S&P 500 High Beta 41.63 +3.3%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 143.32 +1.99%

• Wilshire 5000 30,504.64 +1.86%

• Russell 1000 Growth 1,634.28 +1.62%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,246.02 +2.28%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 628.70 +.90%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,106.20 +1.32%
  

• NYSE Technology 1,969.27 +2.77%

• Transports 10,316.49 +2.01%

• Utilities 847.84 +.20%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 67.69 +3.41%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 41.33 +3.73%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,234.19 +.27%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 946.56 +.19%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 370,304 +.87%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 186 +229

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 29.4 -28.9%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 391,650 -5.5%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,003,007 +.01%

• Total Put/Call .93 -24.6%

• OEX Put/Call 1.93 +87.8%

• ISE Sentiment 75.0 +21.31%

• NYSE Arms 1.39 +127.60%

• Volatility(VIX) 15.02 -15.66%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 37.57 -14.71%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.90 -12.55%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.26 -7.09%

• Smart Money Flow Index 14,602.66 +.98%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $3.381 Trillion +.50%

• ICI Domestic Equity Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$5.322 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 28.6 +9.6%

• AAII % Bears 39.5 -6.4%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 168.61 -1.02%

• Crude Oil 56.56 -.25%

• Reformulated Gasoline 157.43 -.21%

• Natural Gas 2.49 +9.23%

• Heating Oil 189.94 +1.84%

• Gold 1,509.30 -1.24%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 175.65 +2.04%

• Copper 262.75 +2.86%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 256.0 USD/Metric Tonne -9.22%

• China Iron Ore Spot 85.35 USD/Metric Tonne -2.37%

• Lumber 354.20 -5.12%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 810.99 -1.51%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +1.47%+20.0 basis points

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -2.9% -80.0 basis points
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 35.0% unch.

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.2179 +5.51%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 174.06 -27.3%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 176.15 +.20%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 5.40 +16.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -39.30 +2.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -14.80 +2.3 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0% chance of no change, 100.0% chance of rate cut on 9/18

• US Dollar Index 98.36 -.46%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,603.63 +.51%

• Bitcoin/USD 10,410.34 +8.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 122.43 +.94%

• Yield Curve 4.0 +4.0 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.55% +5.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $3.722 Trillion +.04%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 13.34 -9.59%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 166.01 -10.1%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 199.25 -8.75 basis points

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 47.23 -8.53%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 138.67 -.57%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 52.59 -1.73%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 28.16 -14.0%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 84.81 -14.3%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 165.21 +.16%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.55% +1.0 basis point

• TED Spread 15.25 +.5 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 3.75 +4.5 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.5 -1.0 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 51.05 -5.41%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 417.0 +.75%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 57.22 -6.26%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 197.90 -9.17%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 180.0 unch.
  

• M1 Money Supply $3.824 Trillion +.35%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,123.80 +.3%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 216,250 +1,500

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.49% -9.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 558.50 -3.07%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 63.4 +.9 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +5.40% +40.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.57/gallon -.03/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 2,499 +5.09%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 823.75 -1.14%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 25.0 -9.09%

• Rail Freight Carloads 273,348 +.70%

Best Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Value +2.3%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth +.8%

Leading Sectors

• Computer Hardware +7.5%

• Oil Service +6.2%

• Semis +5.0%

• Robotics +4.4%

• Shipping +4.2%

Lagging Sectors

• Tobacco -.4% 

• Biotech -.6%

• Education -1.6%

• Gold & Silver -1.8%

• Coal -6.0%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (12)

• DOCU, LCI, GWRE, LE, ZUMZ, BRC, NAV, REGI, ELAN, IFF, IOTS and IRTC

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (5)

• ZS, LOPE, RARE, LYFT and CRWD

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change