Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Mid-East War De-Escalation Hopes, Decelerating Inflation Expectations, Technical Buying, Tech/Defense Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.0 -3.2%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 70.2 -1.1% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .27 -1.0 basis point
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .42 -6.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 71.8 -7.7%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 187.5 -3.2%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 76.3 -7.0% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .6 -.1
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 89.6 +.6

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 24.6 +4.1

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -5.2 -1.5

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 45.4 +3.2 
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +85.6% -8.8 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 335.80 +.21:  Growth Rate +20.9% -.1 percentage point, P/E 19.7 +.6
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.07% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +690.0% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 794.40 +3.50: Growth Rate +99.7% +.9 percentage point, P/E 17.8 +.7 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .26 +45.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 52.0 basis points (2s/10s) +1.25 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 171.4 +1.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 47.5 euros/megawatt-hour -6.4% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 19.8% +.7 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +1.9% -.1 percentage point
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.30% -5.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 5.09 -12.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for June 17th FOMC meeting: 93.7% (+.2 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for July 29th meeting: 90.8%(+3.2 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +430 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -66 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +134 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my biotech/tech/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long