Thursday, April 09, 2026

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Mideast Ceasefire Holds Hopes, Stable Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Homebuilding/Financial Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.8 -1.8%
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 72.2 -.7% 
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .23 unch.
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .19 -14.0 basis points
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 63.5 -1.6%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 161.3 -2.3%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 73.9 -.5% 
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .6 -.1
  • US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 88.5 -2.4
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 19.5 -9.0
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -20.1 -2.1
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 40.7 -1.4 
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(18 of 500 reporting) +81.3% -4.3 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 337.42 +.41:  Growth Rate +21.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.2 +.7
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.06% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +690.0% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 800.48 +2.68: Growth Rate +101.2% +.2 percentage point, P/E 18.5 +.7 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .66 +16.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 50.75 basis points (2s/10s) +.25 basis point
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 171.1 -.3%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 46.2 euros/megawatt-hour +1.9% 
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 20.5% +2.0 percentage points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +1.3% unch.
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.29% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 5.47 -1.5 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for June 17th FOMC meeting: 94.7% (-2.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for July 29th meeting: 92.7%(-4.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +870 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -6 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +270 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

No comments: