Monday, April 27, 2026

Stocks Reversing High into Final Hour on Mideast War Resolution Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Financial/Energy Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.5 -.1%
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 74.6 -.03% 
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .23 unch.
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .03 +2.0 basis points
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.6 +.4%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 160.9 +.3%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 66.5 -2.0% 
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .5 unch.
  • US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 89.2 -.5
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 8.7 -3.2
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -51.5 -3.1
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 35.6 -3.5
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(139 of 500 reporting) +24.8% -.8 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 343.60 +1.60:  Growth Rate +24.0% +.6 percentage point, P/E 20.8 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.12% -4.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 10 reporting) +314.5% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 823.53 +2.42: Growth Rate +108.0% +.6 percentage point, P/E 19.9 +.3 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .87 unch.
  • US Yield Curve 53.5 basis points (2s/10s) +3.75 basis points
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 179.6 -.5%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 44.3 euros/megawatt-hour -1.2% 
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 19.9% unch.
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +1.2% unch.
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.32% +2.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.64 +10.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for June 17th FOMC meeting: 94.9% (+1.1 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for July 29th meeting: 88.8%(+5.0 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -395 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -68 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +185 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/tech/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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