Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.5 -.1%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 74.6 -.03%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .23 unch.
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .03 +2.0 basis points
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.6 +.4%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 160.9 +.3%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 66.5 -2.0%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .5 unch.
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 89.2 -.5
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 8.7 -3.2
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -51.5 -3.1
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 35.6 -3.5
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(139 of 500 reporting) +24.8% -.8 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 343.60 +1.60: Growth Rate +24.0% +.6 percentage point, P/E 20.8 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.12% -4.0 basis points
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 10 reporting) +314.5% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 823.53 +2.42: Growth Rate +108.0% +.6 percentage point, P/E 19.9 +.3
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .87 unch.
- US Yield Curve 53.5 basis points (2s/10s) +3.75 basis points
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 179.6 -.5%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 44.3 euros/megawatt-hour -1.2%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 19.9% unch.
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +1.2% unch.
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.32% +2.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.64 +10.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for June 17th FOMC meeting: 94.9% (+1.1 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for July 29th meeting: 88.8%(+5.0 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -395 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -68 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +185 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/tech/industrial sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
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