Thursday, April 16, 2026

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Mideast War Resolution Hopes, Israel/Lebanon Ceasefire, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Telecom Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.7 +1.6%
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 76.3 -.5% 
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .23 unch.
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .02 -1.0 basis point
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.1 +1.2%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 159.9 +2.1%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 72.4 +.8% 
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .6 +.1
  • US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 89.1 +.9
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 9.4 -1.2
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -22.4 -.4
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.2 -1.2
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(41 of 500 reporting) +30.5% -.9 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 339.89 +.55:  Growth Rate +22.4% +.2 percentage point, P/E 20.7 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.08% +2.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +690.0% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 813.08 +3.95: Growth Rate +104.4% +1.0 percentage point, P/E 19.7 +.1 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .91 +9.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 53.25 basis points (2s/10s) +1.75 basis points
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 180.0 +.3%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.4 euros/megawatt-hour +2.5% 
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 22.0% +.3 percentage point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +1.3% unch.
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.31% +2.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.57 +1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for June 17th FOMC meeting: 98.0% (-.6 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for July 29th meeting: 89.7%(-2.6 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -298 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -97 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +110 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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