Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Mideast War Resolution Hopes, Surging Israel/Hezbollah Ceasefire Odds, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.8 -.6%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 76.77 +2.2% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .23 +1.0 basis point
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .03 -8.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.4 +.4%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 156.4 +.3%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 71.8 +2.0% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .5 +.1
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 88.2 -.5

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 10.6 +1.2

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -22.0 +.1

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 32.4 -2.4
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(30 of 500 reporting) +31.4% -3.9 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 339.34 +.52:  Growth Rate +22.2% -.1 percentage point, P/E 20.6 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.06% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +690.0% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 809.13 +.70: Growth Rate +103.4% +.2 percentage point, P/E 19.6 +.4 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .82 +2.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 51.5 basis points (2s/10s) +1.5 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 179.5 +.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 41.6 euros/megawatt-hour -4.0% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 21.7% +.6 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +1.3% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.30% -2.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.56 +11.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for June 17th FOMC meeting: 99.1% (+1.7 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for July 29th meeting: 92.8%(+1.6 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +470 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +53 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +205 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial/biotech sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long