Monday, April 20, 2026

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Fading Mideast War Resolution Hopes, Global Supply Chain Disruption Fears, Technical Selling, Airline/Pharma Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.7 +1.0%
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 77.1 -.6% 
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .22 -1.0 basis point
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.03 -4.0 basis points
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.7 +1.3%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 154.7 -.01%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 68.1 +1.4% 
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .6 unch.
  • US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 87.9 -.4
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 5.6 -3.0
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -24.5 -1.7
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 29.0 -2.7
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(46 of 500 reporting) +32.1% +1.6 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 341.20 +1.31:  Growth Rate +22.9% +.5 percentage point, P/E 20.8 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.10% +2.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 10 reporting) +314.5% -375.5%
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 818.01 +4.94: Growth Rate +105.6% +1.2 percentage points, P/E 19.3 -.4 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .92 unch.
  • US Yield Curve 52.75 basis points (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 178.61 -.5%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 39.7 euros/megawatt-hour +2.4% 
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 22.3% +.3 percentage point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +1.3% unch.
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.25% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.42 +7.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for June 17th FOMC meeting: 96.1% (+2.2 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for July 29th meeting: 87.9%(+5.9 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +420 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -10 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +180 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

No comments: