Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.2 +3.3%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 72.5 -.7%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .23 unch.
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .31 -3.0 basis points
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 72.0 +.8%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 187.4 +1.0%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 79.1 +.6%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .8 unch.
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 87.5 -.5
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 29.0 -.7
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -14.4 -4.4
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 42.4 -2.9
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +85.6% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 337.01 +.20: Growth Rate +21.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 19.5 -.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.07% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +690.0% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 797.88 +1.64: Growth Rate +101.0% +.5 percentage point, P/E 17.8 unch.
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .50 +4.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 50.5 basis points (2s/10s) +2.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 169.5 -.1%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 53.2 euros/megawatt-hour +6.4%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 18.5% unch.
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +1.3% -.3 percentage point
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.32% -1.0 basis point
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 5.38 +5.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for June 17th FOMC meeting: 91.9% (-3.0 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for July 29th meeting: 89.9%(-3.1 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +116 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -90 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +346 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 25% Net Long
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