Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 59.4 -2.3%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 72.9 +1.5%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .23 -1.0 basis point
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .34 -3.0 basis points
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 71.4 +.1%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 185.6 -.6%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 78.7 -.1%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .8 unch.
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 88.0 -1.2
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 29.7 +1.7
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -10.0 -4.7
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 45.3 -2.4
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +85.6% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 336.81 +1.01: Growth Rate +21.3% +.4 percentage point, P/E 19.6 -.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.07% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +690.0% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 797.88 +3.48: Growth Rate +100.5% +.8 percentage point, P/E 17.8 unch.
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .46 +3.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 48.5 basis points (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 169.7 +.1%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 50.0 euros/megawatt-hour unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 18.5% -1.3 percentage points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +1.6% -.3 percentage point
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.33% -1.0 basis point
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 5.33 -1.0 basis point
- Highest target rate probability for June 17th FOMC meeting: 97.5% (+3.2 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for July 29th meeting: 97.5%(+7.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +490 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +7 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +n/a open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 25% Net Long
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