Monday, April 06, 2026

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Mideast War Ceasefire Hopes, Bargain-Hunting, Short-Covering, Consumer Discretionary/Defense Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 59.4 -2.3%
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 72.9 +1.5% 
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .23 -1.0 basis point
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .34 -3.0 basis points
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 71.4 +.1%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 185.6 -.6%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 78.7 -.1% 
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .8 unch.
  • US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 88.0 -1.2
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 29.7 +1.7
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -10.0 -4.7
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 45.3 -2.4 
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +85.6% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 336.81 +1.01:  Growth Rate +21.3% +.4 percentage point, P/E 19.6 -.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.07% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +690.0% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 797.88 +3.48: Growth Rate +100.5% +.8 percentage point, P/E 17.8 unch. 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .46 +3.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 48.5 basis points (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 169.7 +.1%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 50.0 euros/megawatt-hour unch. 
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 18.5% -1.3 percentage points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +1.6% -.3 percentage point
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.33% -1.0 basis point
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 5.33 -1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for June 17th FOMC meeting: 97.5% (+3.2 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for July 29th meeting: 97.5%(+7.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +490 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +7 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +n/a open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

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