Sunday, April 12, 2026

Monday Watch

Around X:

  • @Zerohedge
  • @CNBC 
  • @Barron's 
  • Had bullish commentary on (UPS) and (CP).
  • @MarioNawful
  • Remember credit default swaps? The thing that blew up the world in 2008? They were so dangerous regulators spent years trying to rein them in. Wall Street just brought them back for a new sector. S&P Dow Jones is launching a credit default swap index tied to 25 North American financial firms, including giants like Blackstone, Ares Capital and Apollo. Major banks start selling it next week. Here's why it matters: private credit has been on shaky ground... 
  • BREAKING: Iran releases a blistering statement after 21 hours of talks collapse in Islamabad: "The American enemy, which is vile, wicked and dishonest, attempted to achieve on the negotiating table what it could not achieve through war. Iran has decided to reject these terms and continue the sacred defense of its fatherland by any means necessary, military or diplomatic." That's the IRGC calling the United States "vile, wicked and dishonest" minutes after Vance boarded Air Force Two. They say the U.S. demanded Iran hand over enriched uranium and give up sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran said no to both. This statement wasn't written after the talks failed. This was written before they started.
  • Lebanon was the deal-breaker nobody is talking about enough... The nuclear issue and Hormuz get the headlines. But according to sources inside the talks, a critical breakdown came over Lebanon. The U.S. offered to convince Israel to stop strikes in Beirut first, then "gradually expand" the pause to southern Lebanon and the rest of the country. Iran wanted an immediate, full ceasefire across all of Lebanon. They couldn't bridge that gap. This is the pattern playing out exactly as predicted throughout this war. 
  • Netanyahu from South Lebanon: "The war in Lebanon will continue." Ok.... and what about the Iran ceasefire? Who's calling the shots?? 
  • Russia is now protecting its oil with warships... this isn't going to end well. Fed up with other countries taking its shadow tankers, Putin's Northern Fleet destroyer Severomorsk is now patrolling off the coasts of Denmark and Germany. (video)
  • @TheSCIF
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @visegrad24
  • @Watcherguru
  • @PeterSweden7
  • @WallStreetMav
  • @AaronRDay
  • @HormuzLetter  
  • @legitgov
  • @FinanceLancelot
  • @TheIranWatcher
  • @ClashReport
  • @BabakTaghvaee1
  • @BRICSinfo
  • JUST IN: Turkey says Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's "current objective is to undermine ongoing peace negotiations." "Failing this, he risks being tried in his own country and is likely to be sentenced to imprisonment."
  • JUST IN: Turkish President Erdogan threatens military action against Israel, The Telegraph reports. "Just as we entered Libya and Karabakh, we can enter Israel." 
  • @JRobFromMN
  • @TheChiefNerd
  • JASON: “All the Jewish-Americans I talk to say Netanyahu is causing — with his actions in Gaza, Lebanon, Iran — he's gone too far, and it's causing the anti-Semitism we're experiencing.” (video)
  • @LeadingReport
  • @allenanalysis
  • @HealthRanger
  • @NicHulscher
  • @BrianEastwoodx
  • @redpillb0t
  • @WideAwake_Media
  • @KellyLMcCarty
  • @Bitcoin_Teddy
  • Prepare for the most jaw-dropping 4 minutes and 21 seconds you will watch this year. Nicole Shanahan — ex-wife of Google co-founder Sergey Brin, former running mate of RFK Jr., and a woman who personally signed nine-figure philanthropy checks — went full whistleblower on the entire Silicon Valley “tech wife mafia” and how they were used. Her exact words: (video)
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -1.0% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 76.75 +.25 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 45.5 +.5 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 103.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.13%.
  • Crude Oil 104.40/bbl. +8.1%
  • Gold 4,744.7 USD/t oz. -.91% 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.63 +.26%. 
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.69 -.06%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 111.6 +.9%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.35% +3.0 basis point. 
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.69% +5.0 basis points. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.2 +2.7%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -1.4%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.74%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.81%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by transportation and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 25% Net Long heading into the week.

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