Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.7 -2.3%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 77.2 +2.6%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .25 +1.0 basis point
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .00 +3.0 basis points
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 63.0 -1.2%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 161.6 -1.0%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 66.1 -3.9%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .6 +.2
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 91.3 +2.0
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 21.1 +2.5
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -70.8 -3.9
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 47.5 +7.5
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(286 of 500 reporting) +30.1% +7.4 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 344.93 +.71: Growth Rate +24.5% +.3 percentage point, P/E 20.8 +.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.13% +1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(6 of 10 reporting) +72.7% -241.8 percentage points
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 825.69 +1.10: Growth Rate +108.6% +.3 percentage point, P/E 19.4 -.2
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .92 +2.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 50.5 basis points (2s/10s) +2.75 basis points
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 177.2 +.6%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 46.3 euros/megawatt-hour -1.2%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 17.2% -1.2 percentage points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.7% n/a
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.38% -5.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.32 -2.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 88.8% (-1.2 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 85.3%(-13.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +576 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -20 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +140 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my energy/tech/biotech/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
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