Tuesday, April 14, 2026

Stocks Rising into Afternoon on Mideast War Resolution Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Lower Long-Term Rates, Transport/Tech Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.7 -1.8%
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 74.8 +1.8% 
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .22 unch.
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .11 -1.0 basis point
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.1 -4.2%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 155.5 -4.3%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 70.4 -3.9% 
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .4 -.1
  • US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 88.7 +.7
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 9.4 -2.3
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -22.1 -.6
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 33.2 -5.3
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(25 of 500 reporting) +35.3% -31.2 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 338.82 +.67:  Growth Rate +22.3% +.5 percentage point, P/E 20.5 +.3
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.05% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +690.0% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 808.43 +5.67: Growth Rate +103.2% +1.4 percentage points, P/E 19.2 +.5 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .80 +4.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 50.0 basis points (2s/10s) -1.75 basis points
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 178.2 +.8%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.5 euros/megawatt-hour -8.5% 
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 21.1% +.7 percentage point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +1.3% unch.
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.30% -2.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.56 +11.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for June 17th FOMC meeting: 98.0% (+.6 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for July 29th meeting: 91.7%(+.5 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +868 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +53 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +190 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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