Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Rising Long-Term Rates, Less Dovish FOMC Commentary, Global Supply Chain Disruption Worries, Medical/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 55.8 +1.4%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 74.9 -1.2% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .24 +3.0 basis points
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.03 unch.
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 63.8 +1.1%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 163.7 +1.0%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 68.8 +.9% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .4 unch.
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 89.3 -.5

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 18.6 +10.2

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -66.90 -13.2

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 40.0 -1.9
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(219 of 500 reporting) +22.7% -1.3 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 344.22 +.48:  Growth Rate +24.2% +.2 percentage point, P/E 20.7 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.12% +2.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 10 reporting) +314.5% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 824.59 +.78: Growth Rate +108.3% +.3 percentage point, P/E 19.6 unch. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .90 -4.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 47.75 basis points (2s/10s) -3.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 176.2 -1.1%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 46.9 euros/megawatt-hour +7.5% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 18.4% -.4 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +1.2% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.40% +6.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.35 +8.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for June 17th FOMC meeting: 98.6% (+1.2 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for July 29th meeting: 96.5%(+5.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -677 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -28 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +105 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my energy/tech sector longs, emerging market shorts and index hedges
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long