Saturday, December 26, 2020

Today's Headlines

 Bloomberg:          

Wall Street Journal:
CNBC:
  • Had bullish commentary on (STAY), (CZR), (NCLH), (VAC), (WYNN) and (WH).
MarketWatch.com:    
Fox News:
Newsmax:
Zero Hedge:
TheGatewayPundit.com:
The Epoch Times:
Politico:
Daily Caller:
ProtectTheVote.com: 
HereIsTheEvidence.com:

Friday, December 25, 2020

Evening Headlines

 Bloomberg:                   

Wall Street Journal:
CNBC:
IG:
MarketWatch.com:     
Newsmax: 
Zero Hedge:
TheGatewayPundit.com:
The Epoch Times:
Politico:
Daily Caller:
ProtectTheVote.com: 
HereIsTheEvidence.com:

Thursday, December 24, 2020

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Stimulus Hopes, Seasonal Strength, Technical Buying, Homebuilding/REIT Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Light
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 22.0 -5.7%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 1,484.0 +99.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.58 +.07%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.5 unch.
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.4 -4.2%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 108.0 +2.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .75 -6.3%
  • NYSE Arms 2.5 +236.4%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.75 -3.1%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 575.29 -.18%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.31 -5.4%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 113.0 unch.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 58.02 -.52%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 157.27 -1.08%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 183.81 -.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.75 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 15.75 -1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.75 +2.75 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  74.75 +.5 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.75 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.55 +.29%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% unch.
  • Yield Curve 82.5 +3.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 160.48 USD/Metric Tonne -2.32%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 50.0 -1.0 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 200.20 -1.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 70.6 -.2 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.97 unch.
  • 100.0% chance of no change at March 17th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -33 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -1 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -3 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/industrial sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth -.6%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Oil Service -1.7% 2) Digital Health -1.4% 3) Social Media -1.4%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • MTDR, INSG, FLGT, RVP, PLTR, CRDF, LOAK, RKT, REGI, NK, MSTR, PEN, AXTI, DDD, SPCE, FIII, RIDE, ZI, IPV, MRNA, RIOT, PACB, SI, ADPT, CRSR, SSYS, OMI, LQDT, LUNA, NKLA, TCS, SYRS, HYLN, LMND, ROOT, PRLB, NVTA, FEYE, XL, LAZR, FCEL, CDAK, DM, VLDR, ALT, FUBO and EOSE
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) CALA 2) KWEB 3) FEYE 4) JNK 5) IWO
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) BABA 2) FUBO 3) DM 4) CFII 5) ALT
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth +.2%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Homebuilding +1.5% 2) Gold & Silver +.6% 3) Road & Rail +.5%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • NLTX, BLNK, RMG, IEA, GHIV, ODT, FUV, STPK, SBE, PRPL, APXT, IPOC, THBR, APXT, SOL, NGA, QS and ATAC
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) SENS 2) UFS 3) UUP 4) FLIR 5) NOC
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) AIM 2) SENS 3) ALSK 4) SCTY 5) XP
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:
  • Volume Running -29.3% Below 100-Day Average
  • 4 Sectors Rising, 7 Sectors Declining
  • 52.5% of Issues Advancing, 44.3% Declining
  • 155 New 52-Week Highs, 2 New Lows
  • 84.7% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 51.4% 
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 1,476.0 +91.0 points
  • Vix 22.0 -5.7%
  • Total Put/Call .68 -15.0%
  • TRIN/Arms 2.38 +222.9%

Wednesday, December 23, 2020

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 58.25 -.25 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 29.0 -.25 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.39 +.03%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 1,375.0 -10.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.45 -.71%
  • FTSE 100 futures +.26%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.13%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.05%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • None of note
After the Close:
  • None of note
Economic Releases
  • None of note
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Japan Unemployment Rate and the Bloomberg Weekly Consumer Comforit Index could also impact trading today.
Market Hours
Normal:
  • 9:30 am - 1:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, weighed boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Stimulus Hopes, Oil Gain, Short-Covering, Energy/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 22.5 -7.2%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 1,447.0 +270.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.53 +.13%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.5 -.75%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.5 unch.
  • ISE Sentiment Index 106.0 +20.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .73 +21.7%
  • NYSE Arms .61 -53.8%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.22 -2.76%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 576.78 -.72%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.55 -8.86%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 113.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 58.31 +1.18%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 159.04 -1.75%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 183.82 +.18%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 9.0 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 16.75 +.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -25.5 +8.25 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  74.25 -1.75 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.75 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.36 +.13%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 79.25 -1.5 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 162.50 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 51.0 -14.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 201.80 +1.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 70.8 +.5 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.97 +3.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at March 17th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +166 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +36 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +9 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/industrial/consumer staple sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Growth -.2%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Homebuilding -1.7% 2) Internet -.6% 3) Networking -.6%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • SPRO, MP, ACMR, KPTI, SFIX, SQ, ATOM, LGIH, IIPR, REAL, TPIC, IPV, MITK, RDFN, RVNC, SBE, MDB, PTGX, VLDR, LQDT, LAZR, ZM, CLSK, EVLO, DNLI, INSG, PRTS, CVM, LQDT, W, CVNA, FUBO, MARA, BAND, BLNK, NKLA, ARCT and QS
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) DISCA 2) SWN 3) IVR 4) ITB 5) DD
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) FUBO 2) ARCT 3) VYGR 4) PAYS 5) WMT
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value +1.4%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Airlines +3.4% 2) Banks +3.1% 3) Energy +3.1%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • FCEL, EOSE, LGVW, SUPN, MGNI, DMTK, RIDE, LOAK, GME, GIK, NGA, IPOC, FEYE, TCS, PRLB, LMND, AXTI, GLSI, GHIV, HYLN, ITRI, DM, THBR, FIII, GAN and MWK
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) WATT 2) MARK 3) FLIR 4) PAYX 5) KOS
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) IZEA 2) GNSS 3) PLTR 4) COP 5) DSS
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:
  • Volume Running -8.7% Below 100-Day Average
  • 10 Sectors Rising, 1 Sector Declining
  • 69.5% of Issues Advancing, 27.5% Declining
  • 179 New 52-Week Highs, 4 New Lows
  • 84.0% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 50.0% 
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 1,394.0 +218.0 points
  • Vix 23.0 -5.0%
  • Total Put/Call .68 +13.3%
  • TRIN/Arms .62 -53.0%