Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -11.3% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 16.2 +1.2
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 75.8% of Issues Advancing, 22.6% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.03 +24.1% 
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$279.4M
  
• 60 New 52-Week Highs, 15 New Lows
• 62.9% (+2.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 54.3 +2.4

Polymarket:

• Will Congress pass a funding bill by Oct. 31st?  37.0% +14.0 percentage points
• US tariff rate on China on Nov. 12th? 25-40% 69.0% -1.0 percentage point
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 17.0% +1.0 percentage point

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 80.4 +5.1%
• US High-Yield All Sectors OAS Index 351.5 -2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 247.6 +.7%
  
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 169.9 +.5%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 31.0 (FEAR) +5.0
• 1-Day Vix 10.7 -41.0%
  
• Vix 18.6 -10.4%
  
• Total Put/Call .83 -7.8%

Monday Watch

Around X:

• @Business 

• The Gaza truce that Donald Trump hopes to parlay into broader Middle East peace is under fire, with Israel and Hamas accusing each other of violations.
• Japan Innovation Party lawmakers are set to meet to decide whether to form an alliance with the ruling Liberal Democratic Party that would likely lead to Sanae Takaichi becoming the country’s first woman prime minister. 
• China said it’s uncovered “irrefutable evidence” of US government cyber attacks on the country’s main agency responsible for timekeeping. 
• China's decision to curb access to rare earths has far-reaching implications for investors. 
• Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is expected to meet US President Donald Trump on Monday in Washington for talks that will include discussions over the supply chain of rare earth materials
  .
• All it took was a classic bout of haven buying to wake up a slumbering Treasuries market and drive benchmark yields to the lowest in months
  .
• Trump Cuts Off US Aid to Colombia, Calling Leader a Drug Dealer
  . 
• President Volodymyr Zelenskiy says the war with Russia should be frozen along current battle lines before peace negotiations, even as Vladimir Putin continues to demand that Ukraine cede the entire Donetsk region.
• From viral videos to screaming clients, inside the historic squeeze that's gripped the global silver market. 
• Here's what you need to know to start your day.

• @Zerohedge 

• Vaguely incredible that the @ft writes an article about how current GPU rental prices suggest that AI a bubble, but makes a math error such that all of their calculations are off by a factor of 8 by conflating per server and per GPU economics. Doing the math correctly was actually reasonably bullish for the “subscalers” and super bullish for the hyperscalers. The article is ironically another positive indicator for GPU residual values.
• GS FICC "There was much to-do in fixed income carry this week with Powell on the tapes speaking on reserves, funding markets, and what sounded like sooner-than-later end to QT, combined with higher SOFR rates (SOFR set 15bp higher on Thursday vs last Friday), SRF usage on Wednesday and Thursday ($6.75bn and $8.35bn, respectively), TGCR ticking up from 4.12 last Friday to 4.25 (which is the SRF rate) yesterday. It feels like those with cash currently have the upper hand."
• *FRENCH BOND FUTURES OPEN 15 TICKS LOWER AFTER S&P DOWNGRADE.
• Is This MAGA? Trump Wants Lindsey Graham Donor To Challenge 'RINO' Massie.
• "I've Never Seen Anything Like This": One Bullion Dealer Sees A Rupture In Gold And Silver Markets.
• The U.S. is pushing a peaceful path in Ukraine. So why is the Ukrainian delegation leaking confidential White House talks to pals in the EU/UK—and to the press? 
• Best summary of the US-China dance, from Morgan Stanley. "If you’ve been following the US/China relationship this year, a pattern has emerged: A new round of tariffs or export controls, a flurry of headlines, and market tremors, followed by a search for the next uneasy equilibrium. The latest episode is no exception: China’s move to tighten rare earth export controls and the US threat of 100% tariffs are launching another cycle. While an unsatisfying conclusion for bears and bulls alike, it’s our view that a continued dynamic of rolling negotiations and truces is more likely than either a durable trade peace or a hard economic decoupling. We see this as a grinding, tactical contest for advantage as the US and China seek to secure their economic futures. Against this backdrop, neither Washington nor Beijing seems eager for a true split, at least not anytime soon. The economic costs would be staggering, and both sides know it. Key strategic interdependencies (e.g., rare earths, semiconductors) remain."  
• "Hence, we think both sides are calibrating their moves carefully to avoid tipping the balance. China’s export controls, for example, may end up providing enough flexibility to keep civilian trade flowing, even as they create leverage ahead of high-level negotiations this month. The US, meanwhile, is attempting to ramp up domestic investment in critical sectors while not slamming the door on Chinese imports altogether. The result is a relationship defined by uncertainty, periodic flare-ups, and a persistent sense that the rules of engagement could change at any moment." 
• After Reported "Shouting Match", Zelensky & Trump Agree Battlelines Should Be Frozen Before Final Peace Can Be Brokered. 
• Washington Nuclear Facility Will Deploy 12 Amazon-Funded SMRs.
• Hartnett: Fed Will Cut Aggressively When "Krunchy Kredit" Cracks.
• *FBI PROBING SUSPICIOUS HUNTING STAND W/ LINE TOWARD TRUMP: FOX. *SECRET SERVICE UNCOVERED LINE OF SIGHT TOWARD TRUMP EXIT: FOX. *FOX NEWS REPORTS ON FBI PROBE AT PALM BEACH INTL AIRPORT. 
• China now transshipping exports to the US via Africa. 
• UN Body Votes To Postpone Decision On Global Carbon Tax Amid US 'Outrage'.
• *IDF: STRUCK DOZENS OF HAMAS TARGETS ACROSS GAZA EARLIER TODAY. *IDF: STRIKES TARGETED WEAPONS STORAGE FACILITIES, FIRING POSTS. 
• Secret Service Discovers Hunting Stand Overlooking Trump's Air Force One Exit. 
• They love their gold too. (graph) 
• If the tech bubble has burst, investors don't seem too concerned. (graph)
• Capito on Fox on shutdown: We're ready to talk about healthcare, to talk the system they created, Obamacare, that they now is unaffordable, which we knew it would be when we voted against it several years ago. But Senator Thune has said numerous times that we will talk about this, but he's not gonna let the government be held hostage and hijacked.  
• When Could The Government Shutdown End And What Might Finally Force Breakthrough? 
• *TRUMP: I'M NOT LOOKING TO DESTROY CHINA. *TRUMP: WE'LL SEE WHAT HAPPENS IN MEETING W/ XI IN 2 WEEKS. 
• "Coup d'Flat": Billionaire-Funded 'No Kings' Color-Revolution Turns Into White Liberal Boomer Parade As Democrats Become National Laughingstock.
• Digital ID Black Pill Moment?  
• 12 Years Of Data Prove China's Belt & Road Initiative Is A Debt Trap.
• The World Has Woken Up To China's Supply Chain Weaponization: Navarro.
• Most Of The Population Of The World Lives In A Nation Where Christians Are Being Persecuted.
• Mamdani Poses With WTC-Linked Imam Whose Son Ran 'Decomposing Child' Terrorist Compound.   

• @CNBC

• Asia-Pacific markets set to climb as investors look toward slate of China economic data
  .
• Stock futures rise ahead of big earnings week: Live updates.
• Trump administration agrees to deliver more student loan forgiveness.
• Global week ahead: 'Cockroaches' crawling toward Europe? 
   
• Earnings playbook: Netflix and Tesla among the big companies slated to report.
• China wants to play the long game with the U.S. What that means for Chinese stocks.

• @MJTruthUltra

• THOUSANDS of Women are Suing Pfizer over their Popular Birth Control Shot, Depo-Provera, linked to BRAIN TUMORS. EU added a warning in 2024 Canada has warned since 2006 The US has no such warning. Pfizer kills people. (video)

• @ProjectConsitu

• ICYMI: This CIA-linked program hiding in plain sight at Utah State Could Hold The Key To The 4 Missing Years Of Tyler Robinson's Past That Are Missing. The internet’s not talking enough about this. Enter "Center For Anticipatory Intelligence" (CAI) At Utah State University — a CIA-affiliated research hub — briefly had Robinson enrolled. $2.4M in US-Israel research funding. Ex–CIA leadership. (video)

• @sheisLaurenLee

• Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla announces their new ELECTRONIC TRACKING PILL: “It is a biological chip, and once you take the tablet, it dissolves into your stomach, and it sends a signal.” “Imagine the applications of that — the compliance.” (video)

• @EYakoby

• Zohran Mamdani’s intern Arzoo Malik is calling for a Holy War through Jihad and martyrdom: “This is all jihad, this is all ibada, and this is all counted for by Allah. How committed am I to this? What am I willing to sacrifice for this noble cause?” (video)

• @DC_Draino

• Nothing to see here. Just a major New Jersey county refusing to allow cameras in ballot storage areas and a sign-in/out log. If there’s no election fraud, then why would they prohibit common sense security like this? Because there is fraud. (pic)

• @Albuffalo2nite

• They call it the No Kings Rally… but they’re marching into the hood to protest the cleaning up of the hood. 100,000 white liberals chanting about “justice”… while demanding we live with gang wars, overdoses, theft, and fear. They don’t live here. They don’t hear the gunfire. They just want to feel moral while we deal with the mess. This video will hit you where it hurts. (video)

• @GenXGirl1994

• AG PAM BONDI CLEARED THE WAY FOR ISRAEL’S FOREIGN INFLUENCE OPERATION. On her 1st day, newly appointed AG Pam Bondi, disbanded the Foreign Influence Task Force, the DOJ office responsible for enforcing FARA. The change specifically limits DOJ prosecutors from criminally charging those involved in public-relations work & policy advocacy on behalf of foreign businesses & nonprofits.

• @joma_gc

• No Crown. #NoKings! She's 86. Has been in Congress for 37 years. Made over $200 million while in office. Filed to run for re-election in 2026. (video)

• @DerrickEvans4WV

• Bernie Sanders openly admits that the Democrats will lose leverage if the shutdown ends. The Democrats care more about their leverage for illegals than they do for the American people. (video)

• @jjauthor

• President Trump urges us to tag @LeaderJohnThune and demand the Senate pass: A. Watermarked paper ballots. B. Same-day voting. C. Voter photo ID. D. Proof of citizenship. E. Election Day holiday. F. Hand counting. G. All of the above. Now or we are doomed. Pass it on - until it is law! What do democrats hate an honest election?

• @AmyMek

• WARNING AMERICA... You think Mamdani is bad? You have no idea what is coming. While everyone is finally waking up to what one CAIR-backed Marxist Muslim candidate in New York represents… CAIR is openly building an entire generation. By 2050, they are working to produce: • 100,000 journalists. • 100,000 filmmakers. • 100,000 lawyers & policy operatives. • 100,000 potential candidates & officeholders — and those candidates can now be supported by CAIR’s new Super PAC. And what is the GOP doing while this political-Islam machine — with documented terror-ties — maps out a 25-year plan to penetrate media, law, government, academia, and culture? Talking. Holding hearings. Drafting “ban CAIR / ban political Islam” bills that will never pass. Tweeting. “Expressing concern.”

• @HerbsandDirt

• THIS IS WHY YOUR DOCTOR GETS AGGRESSIVE. “Blue Cross Blue Shield pays your doctor a $40,000 bonus for fully vaccinating 100 patients under the age of 2. If your doctor manages to fully vaccinate 200 patients, it jumps to $80,000. But here’s the catch: Under BCBS’s rules, pediatricians LOSE THE WHOLE BONUS unless at least 63% of patients are fully vaccinated. This includes the flu vaccine. So it’s not just $400 on your child’s head -it could be the whole bonus.”

Night Trading

• Asian indices are +.75% to +1.75% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 70.5 unch.
• China Sovereign CDS 44.75 -.5 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 104.60 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%.
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.99 -.08% 
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.26 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 78.6 +2.9%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.02% +1.0 basis point.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.5 -1.3%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.55%.
• S&P 500 futures +.14%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.22%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Around X:

• @Business 

• Chinese officials told their global counterparts that tightened export controls will not harm normal trade flows.
• President Donald Trump is counting on his familiar negotiating formula and face-to-face meetings to reach deals with China and Russia. 
• A global carbon tax on shipping seemed sure to pass. Here's how Donald Trump forced a delay.
• S&P Global Ratings downgraded France, dealing another blow to the country’s credibility as a weakened minority government struggles to pass legislation to tackle a swelling debt burden.
• Italy regained its highest score from any major credit assessor since 2018 after an upgrade by Morningstar DBRS that commended the government’s push to tame the budget deficit
  . 
• Boeing Co. has secured the backing of US aviation regulators to raise production of its 737 jetliner to 42 jets a month, a person familiar with the matter said, a crucial step in the US planemaker’s path to recovery following a series of crises.
• The bad loans reported by Zions Bancorp and Western Alliance Bancorp this week can be traced back to the bankruptcy of a commercial real estate investment firm in Southern California: Here’s your Evening Briefing.
• Blackstone and TPG are in advanced negotiations to acquire medical device maker Hologic, according to sources. 
• Walmart named a company veteran to lead the expansion of drones and other new technologies for the big-box retailer to bring products to shoppers. 
• Retail investors have lost an estimated $17 billion in an attempt to gain Bitcoin exposure through digital asset treasury firms such as Metaplanet and Michael Saylor’s Strategy, according to a new research report. 
• After two months of market bliss, Wall Street is stirring from its slumber.
• What happened to the global economy this week — in charts. 

• @Zerohedge 

• Salesforce CEO Apologizes For Pro-Trump Comments Amid Democratic Party Machine's Outrage. 
• No Kings Kicks Off Across Country As States Prepare For Violence. 
• The US Has Given Ukraine The Most Aid To Date. 
• The EU Has To Get Real If Europe Is To Matter In AI. 
• Tests Find High Levels Of Lead In Protein Powders, Shakes: Consumer Reports. 
• Senate Candidate Returns AIPAC Money As Pro-Israel Group Becomes Political Poison
  . 
• Get Woke, Go Broke: Hollywood Productions Plummet To All Time Lows. 
• China Expels 9 Top Generals, Including Two From Communist Party Leadership, In Sweeping Purge. 
• Texas Governor To Deploy National Guard To Austin's 'No Kings' Protest.
• BOMBSHELL: The Acosta transcript just DESTROYED the Democrats' Epstein–Trump smear. Ranking Member Garcia and @OversightDems have spent months pushing a LIE against President Trump. Here are the receipts they don't want you to see: (thread)
• Trump Commutes Sentence Of Former Rep. George Santos; Savages 'Da Nang Dick' Blumenthal.
• Can Diet-Changes Really Transform ADHD? One Family's Remarkable Discovery.
• DOE Unveils National Roadmap To Deliver Commercial Fusion Power By Mid-2030s. 
• SPX and NASDAQ bounce hard off the 50-day as volatility panic unwinds and tech flows hit records. Fear got ahead of itself — again. 
• The Decline Of Boys Participating In Youth Sports Has Led To A Generation Of Soft & Isolated Young Men.
• And here it is: Documents declassified by CIA Director John Ratcliffe — at the Olympic level. Emails from George Soros’ Open Society Terrorist Foundation: “It will be a long-term affair to demonize Putin and Trump,” approved by HRC — Hillary Rodham Clinton — “to tie Trump to Russia as a means of distracting people from her own missing emails, especially if the affair reaches an Olympic level. For now, it serves to provide a post-convention bounce. Later, the FBI will be right there to add more oil to the fire.”
• Head Of Russia's Sovereign Wealth Fund Pitches "Putin-Trump" Undersea Tunnel Linking Russia-US.
• US Masses 10,000 Troops Near Venezuela, A Top Admiral Resigns.
• First Arrests Hint At How Billions In California Homeless Dollars Vanished Without A Trace on Newsom's Watch. 
• "Fueled By Billionaires": No Kings Prepares Color-Revolution-Style Mobilization Against Trump
  .
• George Soros is funding liberal anarchy across the country. We need to investigate and prosecute anyone who would fund domestic terrorism.
• BREAKING. In the aftermath of emails he and his former wife sent to Jeffrey Epstein being revealed, Prince Andrew says he has given up his title as the Duke of York, among other honors. This also means that his former wife, Sarah, Duchess of York, will now only be known as Sarah Ferguson. Personal Statement from Prince Andrew: 
• It turns out the “Hate America” Rallies tomorrow are being funded by the billionaire who hates America the MOST. Anyone surprised? 

• @BarronsOnline

• Had bullish commentary on (CL) and (PWR).

• @IGSquawk 

• Weekend markets update: #DAX 23998 +0.03% #DOW 46252 +0.05% #NASDAQ 24889 +0.09% #FTSE 9391 +0.10% #HANGSENG 25872 +0.05% #EURUSD 11652 +0.00% #GOLD 4260 +0.18% #USOIL 5750 +0.42% #TSLA 43974 +0.14% #IGWeekendMarkets.

• @CNBC 

• AI headshots are changing the way job seekers are seen and get hired in changing labor market.
• The alleged 'sweeping betrayal of trust' that rocked Zions bank and spooked Wall Street. 
• As secondhand luxury soars, authentication becomes a new gold standard.

• @MarioNawfal

• BREAKING: POLICE RAID CHINESE-RUN HUMAN TRAFFICKING RINGS. The Austin Police Department raided illicit “spas” secretly run by Chinese crime networks. There were no cucumber facials, just a whole lot of illegal stuff. The sting, called "Operation Coast to Coast," pulled in more than 150 law enforcement agencies from places like Texas, California, and NY. It wasn’t your average police day; officers found over 60 victims of human trafficking and arrested more than 30 people. Some of the victims were just teenagers, including a 14-year-old girl who was forced to “work” for over 10 men a day. Officials say all the cash and victims were being funneled straight back to China. They're calling it the fastest-growing form of trafficking in the U.S. So, if your “spa” has bars on the windows and a kitchen behind the massage table, it’s probably not a spa.

• @LauraLoomer

• Here’s a photo of @ZohranKMamdani with anti-American pro-animal abuse (and obviously Muslim) streamer Hasan Piker who said Americans deserved 9/11. This photo was taken during Mamdani’s Mayoral campaign. Tonight at the NYC Mayoral debate, he pretended like he has no association with Piker. Another Mamdani lie. (pic)

• @TheIntel SCIF

• USAID spotted at NO KINGS event. You just can't make this stuff up, ladies and gentlemen. This literally solidifies everything we've been telling you. (video)

• @BasedMikeLee

• We shouldn’t stay in the UN after this—not another day. Even though it’s great that the carbon-tax measure failed, we can be confident they’ll try it again. Americans are ill-served by continuing to legitimize the UN through our membership and dues—paid for by U.S. taxpayers.

• @0HOUR1_

• "Make American Planes Crash Again." -@mehdirhasan. I can’t believe @ZohranKMamdani friend @mehdirhasan posted this what did he mean by this post? (pic)
  

• @BGatesIsaPsycho

• Brits gather in London to protest The Government’s tyrannical mandatory Digital ID. This issue is uniting everyone across the Political Spectrum - even The Left are rejecting a ‘Papers Please’ Society in which the State would have total control. (video)
• Britain to introduce new laws that means if your own private home is non-compliant with zero you could go to prison! All at the alter of the Climate Change Hoax Scam - Truly insane. (video)
• Meanwhile in The UK. Robot Police Dogs are now being seen guarding Luxury Migrant Hotels & the Grounds in which they reside in. You are all living in some kind of Dystopian Sci-Fi Novel - except it’s real life. (video)

• @SpeakerJohnson

• It turns out the “Hate America” Rallies tomorrow are being funded by the billionaire who hates America the MOST. Anyone surprised?
• Democrats have now voted 11 TIMES to keep the government closed — blocking pay for troops, Border Patrol, TSA agents, air traffic controllers, and the rest of our federal workforce. Yesterday, they went EVEN FURTHER — voting against a bipartisan standalone bill to fund our national defense and pay our troops. Their message couldn’t be clearer: politics OVER patriots, and the American people LAST. (video)

• @GenFlynn

• Conspiracy Theorists have an amazing track record. This is so good. I’m certain it is dedicated to all you conspiracy theorists around the world. (video)

• @WallStreetApes

• This needs MASSIVE attention. New York Mayor candidate Zohran Mamdani’s Lead Director is asked “What did the police think about Zohran?” His response “You're a city employee. You get told what to do. Shut up. When did you get an opinion”. HOLY CR*P. (video)

• @VigilantFox

• Bill Maher appears genuinely alarmed as he discusses Democrats’ growing preference for socialism over capitalism. If you thought Democrats were already flirting with communism, wait until you see these poll numbers. “I read these [poll numbers]: 74% [of Democrats] are for democratic socialism, only 16% favor capitalism.” “Is this going to be a country that I don’t recognize in five to ten years if we don’t have these two pillars [democracy and capitalism]?” Maher asked. “I mean, where are the Democrats going with this? If Mamdami is the face of the Democrats on the East Coast and Katie Porter is the face on the West Coast, I don’t know if that’s great politically for that party.” (video)

• @stocktalkweekly

• *NVIDIA AND TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR HAVE OFFICIALLY PRODUCED THE FIRST ‘MADE IN AMERICA’ BLACKWELL AI CHIPS AT TSMC ARIZONA. $TSM $NVDA $AMKR. This is a historic moment for the American semiconductor industry & national security. For all intents and purposes, TSM is now American.

• @Matt_Vanswol

• This is the "No Kings" protest in Marion NC, about a 30 minute drive from Asheville NC. The crowd that showed up is BEYOND PARODY at this point... ...literally every single person at this protest is retired and white. Honestly, I've never seen anything like it. (video)

• @ChanelRion

• Don’t be naive. Venezuela isn’t some “independent” nation. We’re not sending 10k troops and 8 warships over drug dealers…. Trump is going after CHINA. Trump’s Venezuela offensive is a THIRD BLOW to Xi: Iran - Gaza - Venezuela. Just WATCH… (video)

• @NiohBerg

• Ex-muslim speaks clarity about voting for Zohran Mamdani: "The muslims are LAUGHING at you guys. Give it 50 more years, the entire New York is gonna be muslim. Before you know it there'll be sharia courts... And he's going to win, because we're too stupid." (video)

• @RWMaloneMD

• “Women who use Depo-Provera face a higher risk of developing a slow-growing brain tumor, according to a new study that comes as the contraceptive’s maker, Pfizer, faces hundreds of lawsuits claiming that it was aware of the potential risks. For the new study, researchers examined over 61 million female patient records, finding that women who used DMPA had a twofold higher risk of getting diagnosed with meningioma compared to women not on hormonal birth control. How much more will we have to tolerate from Pfizer? (video)

• @ScottJenningsKY

• Jones: I will murder Republicans and their children. Dem donors: take all my money.

• @RepMTG

• One good thing to come from this government shutdown… CLEAR SKIES! No taxpayer-funded weather modification experiments Americans never asked for. My Clear Skies Act will BAN geoengineering and weather modification. No more spraying chemicals in our skies. It’s time to end this dangerous and unregulated practice!!

OpenVAERS:  

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,026,944 Reports(+441 from prior report) Through August 29th, 2025.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.