Indices
S&P 500 1,222.12 +.89%
Dow 10,940.55 +.91%
NASDAQ 2,070.61 +.25%
Russell 2000 644.95 +1.16%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,038.82 +.89%
S&P Equity Long/Short Index 1,034.02 +.88%
S&P Barra Growth 588.02 +.91%
S&P Barra Value 629.65 +.86%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 591.58 +.69%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 784.26 +.98%
Morgan Stanley Technology 474.31 +.20%
Transports 3,830.97 +3.12%
Utilities 361.75 +1.60%
Put/Call .82 -1.20%
NYSE Arms 1.10 +35.80%
Volatility(VIX) 11.94 +3.92%
ISE Sentiment 152.00 +4.83%
AAII % Bulls 39.51 +24.17%
US Dollar 82.52 -.14%
CRB 309.16 +2.97%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 53.78 +4.22%
Unleaded Gasoline 150.89 +6.79%
Natural Gas 6.74 +.51%
Heating Oil 148.34 +3.37%
Gold 435.10 -.21%
Base Metals 130.28 +2.77%
Copper 149.40 +.71%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.31% +.94%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 5.79% +1.76%
Leading Sectors
Airlines +5.46%
Retail +3.69%
Papers +3.69%
Lagging Sectors
Insurance -1.22%
Semis -2.33%
Biotech -6.21%
*% Gain or loss for the week
Friday, March 04, 2005
Mid-day Report
Indices
S&P 500 1,221.14 +.88%
Dow 10,926.73 +.87%
NASDAQ 2,071.44 +.63%
Russell 2000 643.88 +.88%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,028.77 +.86%
S&P Barra Growth 587.67 +.77%
S&P Barra Value 629.33 +1.05%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 591.04 +.55%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 783.90 +1.57%
Morgan Stanley Technology 474.85 +.45%
Transports 3,834.04 +1.96%
Utilities 361.50 +1.87%
Put/Call .81 -1.22%
NYSE Arms 1.07 -11.57%
Volatility(VIX) 12.36 -4.41%
ISE Sentiment 176.00 -6.88%
US Dollar 82.50 -.97%
CRB 308.40 +.29%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 53.25 -.60%
Unleaded Gasoline 149.80 -.63%
Natural Gas 6.73 +1.17%
Heating Oil 148.00 -.72%
Gold 435.60 +1.11%
Base Metals 130.28 +1.42%
Copper 149.40 +1.22%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.31% -1.54%
Leading Sectors
Airlines +3.50%
Iron/Steel +3.26%
Papers +3.08%
Lagging Sectors
Networking -.05%
Gaming -.27%
Biotech -.86%
Market Movers
ELN - 7.5% after it and Biogen Idec confirmed that a second patient taking the MS drup Tysabri have developed a rare and usually fatal neurological condition.
SILI +25.3% after Vishay Intertechnology announced that it has today delivered to the board of directors a notice of its intention to commence a tender offer for all outstanding shares not owned already.
ASPV +22.7% on strong demand for IPO.
ABLE +23.59% on strong 2Q results.
CLSR +19.0% after Johnson and Johnson agreed to buy it for about $370 million.
YELL +6.11% on continuing optimism over US economic growth.
MON +6.2% after Brazil’s Congress approved a bill allowing farmers to plant modified soybeans.
BXG -33.4% after missing 4Q estimates and lowering 05 guidance.
TACT -29.45% on lower 05 guidance.
SONS -14.88% after missing 4Q revenue estimates and multiple downgrades.
MCRI -11.79% on no news.
CPS -3.8% after saying it plans to limit sales of social-security numbers and other personal information it collects on consumers.
Market Internals
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Hot Spots
Option Dragon
Economic Data
- The Unemployment Rate for February rose to 5.4% versus estimates of 5.2% and 5.2% in January.
- Average Hourly Earnings for February were unchanged versus an estimate of a .2% increase and an upwardly revised .3% rise in January.
- The Change in Non-farm Payrolls for February was 262K versus estimates of 225K and 132K in February.
- The Change in Manufacturing Payrolls for February was 20K versus estimates of 7K and -20K in January.
- Average Weekly Hours for February were 33.7 versus estimates of 33.8 and 33.7 in January.
- The Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence reading for February fell to 94.1 versus estimates of 94.5 and a reading of 94.2 in January.
- Factory Orders for January rose .2% versus estimates of a .1% decline and an upwardly revised .5% increase in December.
Recommendations
- Goldman Sachs: Reiterated Outperform on DD, ADP, CEN and PAYX.
- Smith Barney: Reiterated Buy on HLT, target $26. Reiterated Buy on IGT, target $45. Reiterated Buy on MCD, target $37. Reiterated Buy on ROP, target $79. Reiterated Buy on AVO, target $49. Downgraded UCL to Sell, target $50. Reiterated Buy on SONS, target $7.10. Reiterated Buy on RRI, target $15. Reiterated Buy on PLAY, target $30.
- Deutsche Bank: Rated MBI Buy, target $66. Rated ABK Buy, target $90. Rated HHS Buy, target $32. Rated AD Buy, target $44. Rated VCI Buy, target $41.
- CSFB: Raised ECL to Outperform, target $38.
- Raymond James: Raised BJS to Strong Buy, target $61.
Mid-day News
US stocks are higher mid-day on optimism over US economic growth and falling long-term interest rates. OMI Corp., a US oil-tanker company, said its joint venture with Frontline might be hurt if Frontline should enter a partial integration with their rival General Maritime Corp., TradeWinds said. Hong Kong’s economy is in its best state since the 1997-98 Asian crisis, Chief Executive Tung Cheehwa said in Beijing. Sony Corp. is giving efforts to sell the PlayStation Portable video game console a boost from movies released by Lions Gate Entertainment in a format suitable for the device, the Wall Street Journal reported. Shares of many airlines have fallen 25% or more this year because of concern about rising fuel prices and fare-cuts by Delta Air, but some analysts say the decline has gone too far, the Wall Street Journal said. Yahoo! said it acquired Stadeon Inc. a maker of technology that connects game players on mobile phones and computers, for an undisclosed price, the Wall Street Journal reported. Mutual funds that concentrate on big-capitalization growth shares are starting to look like a good bet again, the Wall Street Journal said. The US government is seeking information from AIG in a probe of an insurance transaction between AIG and Berkshire Hathaway, the Wall Street Journal reported. Jones Apparel Group executive vice president of finance Anita Britt said Federated Department Stores’ acquisition of May Department Stores will help boost profit at the apparel and shoemaker, the Philadelphia Inquirer reported. Pennsylvania’s Gaming Control Board said yesterday the state’s first slot-machine licenses may be issued to horse racing tracks as soon as December, the AP reported. OPEC is producing enough oil is producing enough oil and doesn’t need to raise its quotas, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said. Biovail Corp., Canada’s biggest publicly traded drugmaker, said the SEC has begun a formal probe into the company’s accounting and financial-disclosure practices, Bloomberg reported. Delphi said CFO Alan Dawes resigned, Bloomberg reported. US employers added 262,000 workers in February, the most since October, suggesting companies have greater confidence in the economy, Bloomberg said. Carlos Slim, MCI Inc.’s biggest investor, said he opposes the company’s planned sale to Verizon Communications, adding to pressure on MCI CEO Capellas to negotiate a better deal, Bloomberg reported. Orders placed with US factories unexpectedly rose .2% in January on demand for paper, petroleum and electrical equipment, Bloomberg reported. Investors should buy stocks worldwide because sustainable economic growth in the US will spur gains, according to Fortis’, which manages $62 billion, chief global market strategist. President Bush urged Syria to withdraw all troops immediately from Lebanon, saying the global community is united in seeking an end to the occupation, Bloomberg reported. Blockbuster should be forced to delay its $883 million hostile bid to take over video-rental rival Hollywood Entertainment, the FTC said. GlaxoSmithKline Plc stopped distributing its Paxil CR antidepressant and Avandamet diabetes tablets after regulators seized the drugs, saying manufacturing practices failed US standards, Bloomberg reported.
S&P 500 1,221.14 +.88%
Dow 10,926.73 +.87%
NASDAQ 2,071.44 +.63%
Russell 2000 643.88 +.88%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,028.77 +.86%
S&P Barra Growth 587.67 +.77%
S&P Barra Value 629.33 +1.05%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 591.04 +.55%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 783.90 +1.57%
Morgan Stanley Technology 474.85 +.45%
Transports 3,834.04 +1.96%
Utilities 361.50 +1.87%
Put/Call .81 -1.22%
NYSE Arms 1.07 -11.57%
Volatility(VIX) 12.36 -4.41%
ISE Sentiment 176.00 -6.88%
US Dollar 82.50 -.97%
CRB 308.40 +.29%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 53.25 -.60%
Unleaded Gasoline 149.80 -.63%
Natural Gas 6.73 +1.17%
Heating Oil 148.00 -.72%
Gold 435.60 +1.11%
Base Metals 130.28 +1.42%
Copper 149.40 +1.22%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.31% -1.54%
Leading Sectors
Airlines +3.50%
Iron/Steel +3.26%
Papers +3.08%
Lagging Sectors
Networking -.05%
Gaming -.27%
Biotech -.86%
Market Movers
ELN - 7.5% after it and Biogen Idec confirmed that a second patient taking the MS drup Tysabri have developed a rare and usually fatal neurological condition.
SILI +25.3% after Vishay Intertechnology announced that it has today delivered to the board of directors a notice of its intention to commence a tender offer for all outstanding shares not owned already.
ASPV +22.7% on strong demand for IPO.
ABLE +23.59% on strong 2Q results.
CLSR +19.0% after Johnson and Johnson agreed to buy it for about $370 million.
YELL +6.11% on continuing optimism over US economic growth.
MON +6.2% after Brazil’s Congress approved a bill allowing farmers to plant modified soybeans.
BXG -33.4% after missing 4Q estimates and lowering 05 guidance.
TACT -29.45% on lower 05 guidance.
SONS -14.88% after missing 4Q revenue estimates and multiple downgrades.
MCRI -11.79% on no news.
CPS -3.8% after saying it plans to limit sales of social-security numbers and other personal information it collects on consumers.
Market Internals
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Hot Spots
Option Dragon
Economic Data
- The Unemployment Rate for February rose to 5.4% versus estimates of 5.2% and 5.2% in January.
- Average Hourly Earnings for February were unchanged versus an estimate of a .2% increase and an upwardly revised .3% rise in January.
- The Change in Non-farm Payrolls for February was 262K versus estimates of 225K and 132K in February.
- The Change in Manufacturing Payrolls for February was 20K versus estimates of 7K and -20K in January.
- Average Weekly Hours for February were 33.7 versus estimates of 33.8 and 33.7 in January.
- The Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence reading for February fell to 94.1 versus estimates of 94.5 and a reading of 94.2 in January.
- Factory Orders for January rose .2% versus estimates of a .1% decline and an upwardly revised .5% increase in December.
Recommendations
- Goldman Sachs: Reiterated Outperform on DD, ADP, CEN and PAYX.
- Smith Barney: Reiterated Buy on HLT, target $26. Reiterated Buy on IGT, target $45. Reiterated Buy on MCD, target $37. Reiterated Buy on ROP, target $79. Reiterated Buy on AVO, target $49. Downgraded UCL to Sell, target $50. Reiterated Buy on SONS, target $7.10. Reiterated Buy on RRI, target $15. Reiterated Buy on PLAY, target $30.
- Deutsche Bank: Rated MBI Buy, target $66. Rated ABK Buy, target $90. Rated HHS Buy, target $32. Rated AD Buy, target $44. Rated VCI Buy, target $41.
- CSFB: Raised ECL to Outperform, target $38.
- Raymond James: Raised BJS to Strong Buy, target $61.
Mid-day News
US stocks are higher mid-day on optimism over US economic growth and falling long-term interest rates. OMI Corp., a US oil-tanker company, said its joint venture with Frontline might be hurt if Frontline should enter a partial integration with their rival General Maritime Corp., TradeWinds said. Hong Kong’s economy is in its best state since the 1997-98 Asian crisis, Chief Executive Tung Cheehwa said in Beijing. Sony Corp. is giving efforts to sell the PlayStation Portable video game console a boost from movies released by Lions Gate Entertainment in a format suitable for the device, the Wall Street Journal reported. Shares of many airlines have fallen 25% or more this year because of concern about rising fuel prices and fare-cuts by Delta Air, but some analysts say the decline has gone too far, the Wall Street Journal said. Yahoo! said it acquired Stadeon Inc. a maker of technology that connects game players on mobile phones and computers, for an undisclosed price, the Wall Street Journal reported. Mutual funds that concentrate on big-capitalization growth shares are starting to look like a good bet again, the Wall Street Journal said. The US government is seeking information from AIG in a probe of an insurance transaction between AIG and Berkshire Hathaway, the Wall Street Journal reported. Jones Apparel Group executive vice president of finance Anita Britt said Federated Department Stores’ acquisition of May Department Stores will help boost profit at the apparel and shoemaker, the Philadelphia Inquirer reported. Pennsylvania’s Gaming Control Board said yesterday the state’s first slot-machine licenses may be issued to horse racing tracks as soon as December, the AP reported. OPEC is producing enough oil is producing enough oil and doesn’t need to raise its quotas, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said. Biovail Corp., Canada’s biggest publicly traded drugmaker, said the SEC has begun a formal probe into the company’s accounting and financial-disclosure practices, Bloomberg reported. Delphi said CFO Alan Dawes resigned, Bloomberg reported. US employers added 262,000 workers in February, the most since October, suggesting companies have greater confidence in the economy, Bloomberg said. Carlos Slim, MCI Inc.’s biggest investor, said he opposes the company’s planned sale to Verizon Communications, adding to pressure on MCI CEO Capellas to negotiate a better deal, Bloomberg reported. Orders placed with US factories unexpectedly rose .2% in January on demand for paper, petroleum and electrical equipment, Bloomberg reported. Investors should buy stocks worldwide because sustainable economic growth in the US will spur gains, according to Fortis’, which manages $62 billion, chief global market strategist. President Bush urged Syria to withdraw all troops immediately from Lebanon, saying the global community is united in seeking an end to the occupation, Bloomberg reported. Blockbuster should be forced to delay its $883 million hostile bid to take over video-rental rival Hollywood Entertainment, the FTC said. GlaxoSmithKline Plc stopped distributing its Paxil CR antidepressant and Avandamet diabetes tablets after regulators seized the drugs, saying manufacturing practices failed US standards, Bloomberg reported.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is substantially higher mid-day on gains in my software, homebuilding, I-Banking and steel longs. I added a few new longs this morning, thus bringing the Portfolio’s market exposure to 125% net long. One of my new longs is ELN and I am using a $5.75 stop-loss on this position. The tone of the market is modestly positive as the advance/decline line is decent, almost every sector is higher and volume is ok. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly lower. As I anticipated a few days ago, the DJIA and S&P 500 are making new cycle highs and the Russell 2000 is breaking out of its recent trading range. However, the Nasdaq is lagging due to underperformance by tech shares. The current rally likely has further to run as there is still an unusual amount of skepticism by many investors. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher from current levels into the close on optimism over US economic growth, short covering, falling long-term interest rates and bargain hunting.
Friday Watch
Late-Night News
Asian indices are mixed as strength in commodity-related stocks in the region is being offset by weakness in manufacturing shares. SonoSite Inc., which makes handheld ultrasound devices, plans to introduce a new device it says will match or exceed the quality of big systems, at a cheaper price, boosting the value of the $200 million handheld market, Business Week reported. HSBC Holdings Plc will tomorrow announce plans to overhaul its research unit in an attempt to compete with investment banks in the US, the Financial Times reported. Freddie Mac, the second-biggest provider of financing for US residential mortgages, said investors in Asia today bought 38% of its $3 billion two-year note sale, Reuters reported. China's domestic steel prices are unlikely to increase by as much as the 71.5% jump in the price of imported iron ore because of the nation's plentiful stocks of the raw material and possible slowing demand, the China Daily said. Taiwan's parliament may pass retaliatory legislation if China's National People's Congress enacts an anti-secession law aimed at the island, the China Times reported. Teva Pharmaceutical Industries may try to buy Impax Labs to regain its ranking as the world's No.1 maker of generic drugs, Business Week reported. Merrill Lynch is in talks with Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group to form a firm specializing in financial services for wealthy individuals, Nikkei English News reported. Nine Chinese insurers, holding 94% of the domestic insurance assets, applied for approval to invest directly in China's stock markets, the China Securities Journal reported. The European Union will seek to resume "open skies" talks with the US by demanding that European airlines are allowed to buy their ailing US counterparts, the Financial Times reported. Growth in the European Union economies may slow to 1.7% this spring, Financial Times Deutschland said. Intel has created a new cell-phone memory technology that the company says will help it regain the lead in the fastest-growing part of the industry, Bloomberg reported. Aon Corp. may pay $190 million to settle fraud investigations by Spitzer and two other states, Bloomberg said. The US Senate today voted to scrap the government's plan to resume imports of Canadian cattle, which opponents said would jeopardize domestic herds and US consumers by exposing them to mad cow disease, Bloomberg reported. Martha Stewart left federal prison in West Virginia after a five-month sentence for lying to regulators about a stock sale, Fox News reported. China, which raised oil imports 71% last year, plans to pass laws aimed at conserving power and encouraging development of renewable energy to curb pollution and a soaring energy bill, Bloomberg said. The price of pulp, used to make paper, will fall in 2005 because "there's too much" supply, said Anthony Paul, manager of futures trading at Sweden-based CellMark AB, the world's biggest pulp trader.
Late Recommendations
- Goldman Sachs: Reiterated Outperform on DEX, CAT, IR, PXD and SU. Reiterated Underperform on PCZ, GCO, CMOS and WTW.
- Business Week: Shares of Deere & Co.(DE) were recently bought by Dave Young, president of Paragon Capital Management and Prudential rates the stock "Accumulate," target $83.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are unch. to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.13%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.20%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Analyst Actions
Macro Calls
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
CRDN/.37
NTLI/-1.11
SKS/.66
SKE/.41
Splits
None of note.
Economic Data
- The Unemployment Rate for February is estimated to remain unchanged at 5.2% versus 5.2% in January.
- Average Hourly Earnings for February are estimated to rise .2% versus a .2% increase in January.
- The Change in Non-farm Payrolls for February is estimated at 225K versus 146K in January.
- The Change in Manufacturing Payrolls for February is estimated at 7K versus -25K in January.
- Average Weekly Hours for February are estimated to rise to 33.8 versus 33.7 in January.
- The Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence reading for February is estimated to rise to 94.5 versus a prior estimate of 94.2.
- Factory Orders for January are estimated to fall .1% versus a .3% increase in December.
Asian indices are mixed as strength in commodity-related stocks in the region is being offset by weakness in manufacturing shares. SonoSite Inc., which makes handheld ultrasound devices, plans to introduce a new device it says will match or exceed the quality of big systems, at a cheaper price, boosting the value of the $200 million handheld market, Business Week reported. HSBC Holdings Plc will tomorrow announce plans to overhaul its research unit in an attempt to compete with investment banks in the US, the Financial Times reported. Freddie Mac, the second-biggest provider of financing for US residential mortgages, said investors in Asia today bought 38% of its $3 billion two-year note sale, Reuters reported. China's domestic steel prices are unlikely to increase by as much as the 71.5% jump in the price of imported iron ore because of the nation's plentiful stocks of the raw material and possible slowing demand, the China Daily said. Taiwan's parliament may pass retaliatory legislation if China's National People's Congress enacts an anti-secession law aimed at the island, the China Times reported. Teva Pharmaceutical Industries may try to buy Impax Labs to regain its ranking as the world's No.1 maker of generic drugs, Business Week reported. Merrill Lynch is in talks with Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group to form a firm specializing in financial services for wealthy individuals, Nikkei English News reported. Nine Chinese insurers, holding 94% of the domestic insurance assets, applied for approval to invest directly in China's stock markets, the China Securities Journal reported. The European Union will seek to resume "open skies" talks with the US by demanding that European airlines are allowed to buy their ailing US counterparts, the Financial Times reported. Growth in the European Union economies may slow to 1.7% this spring, Financial Times Deutschland said. Intel has created a new cell-phone memory technology that the company says will help it regain the lead in the fastest-growing part of the industry, Bloomberg reported. Aon Corp. may pay $190 million to settle fraud investigations by Spitzer and two other states, Bloomberg said. The US Senate today voted to scrap the government's plan to resume imports of Canadian cattle, which opponents said would jeopardize domestic herds and US consumers by exposing them to mad cow disease, Bloomberg reported. Martha Stewart left federal prison in West Virginia after a five-month sentence for lying to regulators about a stock sale, Fox News reported. China, which raised oil imports 71% last year, plans to pass laws aimed at conserving power and encouraging development of renewable energy to curb pollution and a soaring energy bill, Bloomberg said. The price of pulp, used to make paper, will fall in 2005 because "there's too much" supply, said Anthony Paul, manager of futures trading at Sweden-based CellMark AB, the world's biggest pulp trader.
Late Recommendations
- Goldman Sachs: Reiterated Outperform on DEX, CAT, IR, PXD and SU. Reiterated Underperform on PCZ, GCO, CMOS and WTW.
- Business Week: Shares of Deere & Co.(DE) were recently bought by Dave Young, president of Paragon Capital Management and Prudential rates the stock "Accumulate," target $83.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are unch. to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.13%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.20%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Analyst Actions
Macro Calls
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
CRDN/.37
NTLI/-1.11
SKS/.66
SKE/.41
Splits
None of note.
Economic Data
- The Unemployment Rate for February is estimated to remain unchanged at 5.2% versus 5.2% in January.
- Average Hourly Earnings for February are estimated to rise .2% versus a .2% increase in January.
- The Change in Non-farm Payrolls for February is estimated at 225K versus 146K in January.
- The Change in Manufacturing Payrolls for February is estimated at 7K versus -25K in January.
- Average Weekly Hours for February are estimated to rise to 33.8 versus 33.7 in January.
- The Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence reading for February is estimated to rise to 94.5 versus a prior estimate of 94.2.
- Factory Orders for January are estimated to fall .1% versus a .3% increase in December.
BOTTOM LINE: I expect US equities to open modestly higher and to build on gains throughout the day on lower-to-stable long-term interest rates, optimism over the US economy, bargain hunting and short-covering. More important than the actual employment report will be the bond market's reaction to the report. A substantial rise in long-term rates would likely send US stocks lower. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into tomorrow.
Thursday, March 03, 2005
Thursday Close
Indices
S&P 500 1,210.47 +.03%
Dow 10,833.03 +.19%
NASDAQ 2,058.40 -.44%
Russell 2000 638.29 +.15%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,926.32 +.01%
S&P Barra Growth 583.20 +.03%
S&P Barra Value 622.81 +.03%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 587.86 -.08%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 771.81 +.01%
Morgan Stanley Technology 472.73 -.73%
Transports 3,760.59 +.22%
Utilities 354.90 +.41%
Put/Call .82 +2.50%
NYSE Arms 1.21 +32.97%
Volatility(VIX) 12.93 +3.44%
ISE Sentiment 189.00 +23.53%
US Dollar 83.28 +.24%
CRB 307.52 +.28%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 53.49 -.15%
Unleaded Gasoline 149.85 -.60%
Natural Gas 6.63 -.41%
Heating Oil 148.58 -.34%
Gold 430.80 % unch.
Base Metals 128.46 +1.43%
Copper 147.40 -.14%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.37% unch.
Leading Sectors
Oil Service +2.37%
Airlines +1.89%
Energy +1.72%
Lagging Sectors
Wireless -1.16%
Biotech -1.17%
Semis -1.27%
After-hours Movers
TACT -25.5% after missing 4Q estimates and lowering 1Q guidance.
FLML -14.4% after ending a licensing agreement that would have allowed Biovail to market an antiviral drug in the US and Canada.
CMOS -6.0% after missing 1Q estimates and lowering 2Qoutlook.
Detailed Market Summary
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
Futures Recap
NASDAQ 100 After-hours Indicator
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
Afternoon Recommendations
- Goldman Sachs: Reiterated Outperform on MRVL.
- Raymond James: Rated THE Strong Buy, target $42. Reiterated Strong Buy on ALL, target $65. Reiterated Strong Buy on BBY, target $71.
- Morgan Stanley: Reiterated Overweight on HSIC, target $43. Reiterated Overweight on MHS, target $49.
- Deutsche Bank: Reiterated Buy on ARO, target $37.
- Banc of America: Reiterated Buy on SSI, target $70. Reiterated Buy on CHS, target $34.
- UBS: Reiterated Buy on FL, target $36.
After-hours News
US stocks finished mostly higher today as optimism over US economic reports mostly offset worries over higher energy prices. After the close, Iran accused the IAEA of leaking information form inspections of its nuclear facilities, the Financial Times reported. Financier Wilbur Ross has raised $35 million for a nanotechnology company that he hopes will play a key role in his drive to wring profits from bankrupt textile companies, Bloomberg reported. Billionaire financier Icahn reported buying a stake in Kerr-McGee and urged the company to sell its chemicals business and give he and another investor board seats, Bloomberg said. US retailers including Wal-Mart and Kohl’s posted their biggest sales gain in nine months in February, spurred by job growth and spring fashions, Bloomberg reported. The SEC approved a rule allowing mutual funds to charge a 2% redemption fee on frequent trades to deter market timing, Bloomberg said. Martha Stewart will be released from federal prison tonight after a five-month sentence for lying to regulators about a stock sale, Bloomberg reported. Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing, Singapore’s biggest chipmaker, lowered its first-quarter revenue forecast and said its loss will be “at the higher end” of its predictions, Bloomberg said. Martha Stewart’s daily tv show featuring the company’s founder will be broadcast in the top 20 US tv markets, Bloomberg reported. XM Satellite Radio and the Indy Racing League signed a multiyear agreement to broadcast races starting this weekend, including the Indy 500, Bloomberg said.
S&P 500 1,210.47 +.03%
Dow 10,833.03 +.19%
NASDAQ 2,058.40 -.44%
Russell 2000 638.29 +.15%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,926.32 +.01%
S&P Barra Growth 583.20 +.03%
S&P Barra Value 622.81 +.03%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 587.86 -.08%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 771.81 +.01%
Morgan Stanley Technology 472.73 -.73%
Transports 3,760.59 +.22%
Utilities 354.90 +.41%
Put/Call .82 +2.50%
NYSE Arms 1.21 +32.97%
Volatility(VIX) 12.93 +3.44%
ISE Sentiment 189.00 +23.53%
US Dollar 83.28 +.24%
CRB 307.52 +.28%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 53.49 -.15%
Unleaded Gasoline 149.85 -.60%
Natural Gas 6.63 -.41%
Heating Oil 148.58 -.34%
Gold 430.80 % unch.
Base Metals 128.46 +1.43%
Copper 147.40 -.14%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.37% unch.
Leading Sectors
Oil Service +2.37%
Airlines +1.89%
Energy +1.72%
Lagging Sectors
Wireless -1.16%
Biotech -1.17%
Semis -1.27%
After-hours Movers
TACT -25.5% after missing 4Q estimates and lowering 1Q guidance.
FLML -14.4% after ending a licensing agreement that would have allowed Biovail to market an antiviral drug in the US and Canada.
CMOS -6.0% after missing 1Q estimates and lowering 2Qoutlook.
Detailed Market Summary
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
Futures Recap
NASDAQ 100 After-hours Indicator
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
Afternoon Recommendations
- Goldman Sachs: Reiterated Outperform on MRVL.
- Raymond James: Rated THE Strong Buy, target $42. Reiterated Strong Buy on ALL, target $65. Reiterated Strong Buy on BBY, target $71.
- Morgan Stanley: Reiterated Overweight on HSIC, target $43. Reiterated Overweight on MHS, target $49.
- Deutsche Bank: Reiterated Buy on ARO, target $37.
- Banc of America: Reiterated Buy on SSI, target $70. Reiterated Buy on CHS, target $34.
- UBS: Reiterated Buy on FL, target $36.
After-hours News
US stocks finished mostly higher today as optimism over US economic reports mostly offset worries over higher energy prices. After the close, Iran accused the IAEA of leaking information form inspections of its nuclear facilities, the Financial Times reported. Financier Wilbur Ross has raised $35 million for a nanotechnology company that he hopes will play a key role in his drive to wring profits from bankrupt textile companies, Bloomberg reported. Billionaire financier Icahn reported buying a stake in Kerr-McGee and urged the company to sell its chemicals business and give he and another investor board seats, Bloomberg said. US retailers including Wal-Mart and Kohl’s posted their biggest sales gain in nine months in February, spurred by job growth and spring fashions, Bloomberg reported. The SEC approved a rule allowing mutual funds to charge a 2% redemption fee on frequent trades to deter market timing, Bloomberg said. Martha Stewart will be released from federal prison tonight after a five-month sentence for lying to regulators about a stock sale, Bloomberg reported. Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing, Singapore’s biggest chipmaker, lowered its first-quarter revenue forecast and said its loss will be “at the higher end” of its predictions, Bloomberg said. Martha Stewart’s daily tv show featuring the company’s founder will be broadcast in the top 20 US tv markets, Bloomberg reported. XM Satellite Radio and the Indy Racing League signed a multiyear agreement to broadcast races starting this weekend, including the Indy 500, Bloomberg said.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my alternative energy, retail and steel longs. I did not add any new positions in the afternoon, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market improved modestly from morning lows as the advance/decline line finished slightly lower, sector performance was mixed and volume fell. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly higher into the close ahead of tomorrow’s employment report. Technology stocks underperformed throughout the day and energy-related stocks outperformed. Gains in the airline sector were surprising considering the rise in oil. Overall, today’s performance was impressive considering the rise in oil. The bears had their chance to take stocks substantially lower and failed to do so. TradeSports.com is currently giving a 60% chance of the Non-farm payroll report exceeding the 225K estimate. I continue to expect a number slightly below or right around 225K which should result in a modest drop in long-term interest rates and a gain in stock prices. A blowout number above 325K would likely result in a spike in long-term interest rates and an initial decline in stocks. A number significantly below the estimate would likely result in a fairly large decline in long-term interest rates and a modest rally in stocks.
Mid-day Report
Indices
S&P 500 1,208.48 -.13%
Dow 10,810.57 -.02%
NASDAQ 2,054.59 -.62%
Russell 2000 636.38 -.15%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,906.11 -.15%
S&P Barra Growth 582.20 -.14%
S&P Barra Value 621.89 -.11%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 586.68 -.29%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 770.08 -.21%
Morgan Stanley Technology 471.52 -.98%
Transports 3,752.18 -.01%
Utilities 353.53 +.02%
Put/Call .79 -1.25%
NYSE Arms 1.04 +14.29%
Volatility(VIX) 12.96 +3.68%
ISE Sentiment 174.00 +13.73%
US Dollar 83.29 +.25%
CRB 307.64 +.32%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 54.45 +2.64%
Unleaded Gasoline 152.15 +2.57%
Natural Gas 6.71 -.03%
Heating Oil 150.50 -.17%
Gold 431.00 -.65%
Base Metals 128.46 +1.43%
Copper 147.55 -.10%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.38% +.23%
Leading Sectors
Oil Service +2.51%
Energy +1.87%
Airlines +1.40%
Lagging Sectors
Computer Hardware -1.07%
Wireless -1.14%
Semis -1.45%
Market Movers
AAPL -5.6% on profit-taking and worries over competition to iTunes.
CVC -4.59% after Bear Stearns downgrade to Underperform and announcing SEC inquiry into share trading.
TASR +7.56% after saying that US District Court for the Eastern District of Michigan dropped a lawsuit alleging harm from their stun gun.
DSTI +16.64% after saying it introduced a foil with solar cells for use on high altitude airships, winged unmanned aerial vehicles and satellites.
ESRX +7.09% after meeting 4Q estimates and raising 1Q outlook.
UCL +10.3% after a Wall Street Journal report that ChevronTexaco is interested in buying the company.
LDG +9.6% after beating 4Q estimates and raising 1Q outlook.
BEBE +8.43% after beating February same-store-sales substantially.
TECH +7.0% after announcing 2.9M share buyback and Robert Baird upgrade to Outperform.
CVS +5.2% after beating February same-store-sales estimate and raising 1Q outlook.
KSS +4.62% after beating February same-store-sales estimates.
ELN -11.0% after a Merrill Lynch analyst cut future sales estimates and said Tysabri may be limited to patients who have failed on other MS treatments as a safety precaution if it returns to market.
NKTR -8.82% after an SG Cowen analyst said it may have trouble getting FDA approval for Exubera.
EAGL -11.2% after missing 4Q estimates and widening 05 guidance.
SPW -5.6% after missing 4Q estimates.
LSCP -8.06% after beating 4Q estimates and lowering 05 outlook.
LRCX -5.7% on worries over DRAM exposure.
Market Internals
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Hot Spots
Option Dragon
Economic Data
- Final 4Q Non-farm Productivity rose 2.1% versus estimates of a 1.5% increase and prior estimates of a .8% gain.
- Final 4Q Unit Labor Costs rose 1.3% versus estimates of a 1.8% gain and a prior estimate of a 2.3% rise.
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week fell to 310K versus estimates of 310K and 311K the prior week.
-Continuing Claims rose to 2672K versus estimates of 2658K and 2660K prior.
- ISM Non-Manufacturing for February fell to 59.8 versus estimates of 60.0 and a reading of 59.2 in January.
Recommendations
- Goldman Sachs: Reiterated Outperform on TPX, COH, UTX, SYK, COH, NKE, LIZ, PMMAY and INTC. Raised TAP to Outperform.
- Smith Barney: Upgraded CMS to Buy, target $14.25. Reiterated Buy on APD, target $69. Reiterated Buy on CMS, target $14.25. Reiterated Buy on INTC, target $26.50. Reiterated Buy on FCS, target $19. Reiterated Buy on MXIM, target $52. Reiterated Buy on NMG/A, target $92.
- JP Morgan: Rated NAT Underweight.
- Oppenheimer: Raised AA and AL to Sector Outperform.
- Bear Stearns: Downgraded CVC to Underperform.
- Raymond James: Raised THE to Strong Buy, target $42.
Mid-day News
US stocks are modestly lower mid-day on continuing worries over high energy prices. A weakness in the US dollar is more likely to cause economic growth than a financial crisis, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing a Fed study. President Karzai appointed Afghanistan’s first female provincial governor, in a country where the former regime barred women form taking jobs outside their homes, AFP reported. Liberty Media Chairman Malone’s acquisition of $900 million in shares in Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp. may prompt the two companies to set up a separate media entity from the assets of each company, the Wall Street Journal reported. Small oil companies are drilling within the Houston city limits as crude oil prices have remained high, the NY Times reported. US hedge fund managers have spent hundreds of millions of dollars on art works in the past few years, the NY Times reported. Oil prices are unlikely to jump to $80/bbl. any time soon unless a disruption cuts as much as 2 million barrels a day from world supply, the acting secretary general of OPEC said, Al-Qabas reported. GE’s NBC Universal may take over Microsoft’s stake in MSNBC, the NY Post reported. The US Financial Accounting Standards Board softened a proposal that would force companies to make changes in accounting principles retroactively, the Wall Street Journal said. Stock Car racing is joining with hip-hop and rap artists to attract more minority fans to its racetracks, the Wall Street Journal reported. Ibrahim Jafari of the United Iraqi Alliance, a leading Shiite Muslim politician, is seeking Kurdish support to become prime minister of Iraq, the Washington Post reported. Russian, Saudi Arabia and Germany joined the US and France in calling for Syria to remove its military forces from neighboring Lebanon, Reuters reported. US states such as Wisconsin and Arizona may impose more limits on police use of stun guns, which temporarily immobilize suspects by shocking them with electrical charges, USA Today reported. Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, the world’s fourth-riches man, said he has no plans to sell any of his stake in Hewlett-Packard and liked the computer maker’s prospects, CNBC reported. FedEx said it won tentative approval from the US to add three weekly flights to China, Bloomberg reported. Wal-Mart Stores said February sales at US stores open at least a year rose 4.1%, the most in nine months, as shoppers began spending income tax refunds, Bloomberg said. The number of American filing first-time claims for unemployment insurance fell for the fourth time in five weeks, suggesting improvement in the labor market, Bloomberg reported. The productivity of US workers grew at a 2.1% rate from October through December, faster than previously estimated, and unit labor costs slowed, Bloomberg said. Bank of America agreed to pay $460.5 million to settle claims it helped issue $15.4 billion in WorldCom bonds which it should have know better, Bloomberg said. The US tax code is “overly complicated” and needs to be recast with a focus on broadening the revenue base and lowering rates, Fed Chairman Greenspan told a presidential tax panel. The US dollar traded near the strongest in 10 days against the euro after a report showed services industries in the US expanded at a faster pace and the European Central Bank cut its growth forecast, Bloomberg reported. Crude oil is surging above $55/bbl. in NY, less than a $1 short of a record on strong US economic data, Bloomberg reported.
S&P 500 1,208.48 -.13%
Dow 10,810.57 -.02%
NASDAQ 2,054.59 -.62%
Russell 2000 636.38 -.15%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,906.11 -.15%
S&P Barra Growth 582.20 -.14%
S&P Barra Value 621.89 -.11%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 586.68 -.29%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 770.08 -.21%
Morgan Stanley Technology 471.52 -.98%
Transports 3,752.18 -.01%
Utilities 353.53 +.02%
Put/Call .79 -1.25%
NYSE Arms 1.04 +14.29%
Volatility(VIX) 12.96 +3.68%
ISE Sentiment 174.00 +13.73%
US Dollar 83.29 +.25%
CRB 307.64 +.32%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 54.45 +2.64%
Unleaded Gasoline 152.15 +2.57%
Natural Gas 6.71 -.03%
Heating Oil 150.50 -.17%
Gold 431.00 -.65%
Base Metals 128.46 +1.43%
Copper 147.55 -.10%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.38% +.23%
Leading Sectors
Oil Service +2.51%
Energy +1.87%
Airlines +1.40%
Lagging Sectors
Computer Hardware -1.07%
Wireless -1.14%
Semis -1.45%
Market Movers
AAPL -5.6% on profit-taking and worries over competition to iTunes.
CVC -4.59% after Bear Stearns downgrade to Underperform and announcing SEC inquiry into share trading.
TASR +7.56% after saying that US District Court for the Eastern District of Michigan dropped a lawsuit alleging harm from their stun gun.
DSTI +16.64% after saying it introduced a foil with solar cells for use on high altitude airships, winged unmanned aerial vehicles and satellites.
ESRX +7.09% after meeting 4Q estimates and raising 1Q outlook.
UCL +10.3% after a Wall Street Journal report that ChevronTexaco is interested in buying the company.
LDG +9.6% after beating 4Q estimates and raising 1Q outlook.
BEBE +8.43% after beating February same-store-sales substantially.
TECH +7.0% after announcing 2.9M share buyback and Robert Baird upgrade to Outperform.
CVS +5.2% after beating February same-store-sales estimate and raising 1Q outlook.
KSS +4.62% after beating February same-store-sales estimates.
ELN -11.0% after a Merrill Lynch analyst cut future sales estimates and said Tysabri may be limited to patients who have failed on other MS treatments as a safety precaution if it returns to market.
NKTR -8.82% after an SG Cowen analyst said it may have trouble getting FDA approval for Exubera.
EAGL -11.2% after missing 4Q estimates and widening 05 guidance.
SPW -5.6% after missing 4Q estimates.
LSCP -8.06% after beating 4Q estimates and lowering 05 outlook.
LRCX -5.7% on worries over DRAM exposure.
Market Internals
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Hot Spots
Option Dragon
Economic Data
- Final 4Q Non-farm Productivity rose 2.1% versus estimates of a 1.5% increase and prior estimates of a .8% gain.
- Final 4Q Unit Labor Costs rose 1.3% versus estimates of a 1.8% gain and a prior estimate of a 2.3% rise.
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week fell to 310K versus estimates of 310K and 311K the prior week.
-Continuing Claims rose to 2672K versus estimates of 2658K and 2660K prior.
- ISM Non-Manufacturing for February fell to 59.8 versus estimates of 60.0 and a reading of 59.2 in January.
Recommendations
- Goldman Sachs: Reiterated Outperform on TPX, COH, UTX, SYK, COH, NKE, LIZ, PMMAY and INTC. Raised TAP to Outperform.
- Smith Barney: Upgraded CMS to Buy, target $14.25. Reiterated Buy on APD, target $69. Reiterated Buy on CMS, target $14.25. Reiterated Buy on INTC, target $26.50. Reiterated Buy on FCS, target $19. Reiterated Buy on MXIM, target $52. Reiterated Buy on NMG/A, target $92.
- JP Morgan: Rated NAT Underweight.
- Oppenheimer: Raised AA and AL to Sector Outperform.
- Bear Stearns: Downgraded CVC to Underperform.
- Raymond James: Raised THE to Strong Buy, target $42.
Mid-day News
US stocks are modestly lower mid-day on continuing worries over high energy prices. A weakness in the US dollar is more likely to cause economic growth than a financial crisis, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing a Fed study. President Karzai appointed Afghanistan’s first female provincial governor, in a country where the former regime barred women form taking jobs outside their homes, AFP reported. Liberty Media Chairman Malone’s acquisition of $900 million in shares in Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp. may prompt the two companies to set up a separate media entity from the assets of each company, the Wall Street Journal reported. Small oil companies are drilling within the Houston city limits as crude oil prices have remained high, the NY Times reported. US hedge fund managers have spent hundreds of millions of dollars on art works in the past few years, the NY Times reported. Oil prices are unlikely to jump to $80/bbl. any time soon unless a disruption cuts as much as 2 million barrels a day from world supply, the acting secretary general of OPEC said, Al-Qabas reported. GE’s NBC Universal may take over Microsoft’s stake in MSNBC, the NY Post reported. The US Financial Accounting Standards Board softened a proposal that would force companies to make changes in accounting principles retroactively, the Wall Street Journal said. Stock Car racing is joining with hip-hop and rap artists to attract more minority fans to its racetracks, the Wall Street Journal reported. Ibrahim Jafari of the United Iraqi Alliance, a leading Shiite Muslim politician, is seeking Kurdish support to become prime minister of Iraq, the Washington Post reported. Russian, Saudi Arabia and Germany joined the US and France in calling for Syria to remove its military forces from neighboring Lebanon, Reuters reported. US states such as Wisconsin and Arizona may impose more limits on police use of stun guns, which temporarily immobilize suspects by shocking them with electrical charges, USA Today reported. Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, the world’s fourth-riches man, said he has no plans to sell any of his stake in Hewlett-Packard and liked the computer maker’s prospects, CNBC reported. FedEx said it won tentative approval from the US to add three weekly flights to China, Bloomberg reported. Wal-Mart Stores said February sales at US stores open at least a year rose 4.1%, the most in nine months, as shoppers began spending income tax refunds, Bloomberg said. The number of American filing first-time claims for unemployment insurance fell for the fourth time in five weeks, suggesting improvement in the labor market, Bloomberg reported. The productivity of US workers grew at a 2.1% rate from October through December, faster than previously estimated, and unit labor costs slowed, Bloomberg said. Bank of America agreed to pay $460.5 million to settle claims it helped issue $15.4 billion in WorldCom bonds which it should have know better, Bloomberg said. The US tax code is “overly complicated” and needs to be recast with a focus on broadening the revenue base and lowering rates, Fed Chairman Greenspan told a presidential tax panel. The US dollar traded near the strongest in 10 days against the euro after a report showed services industries in the US expanded at a faster pace and the European Central Bank cut its growth forecast, Bloomberg reported. Crude oil is surging above $55/bbl. in NY, less than a $1 short of a record on strong US economic data, Bloomberg reported.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio higher mid-day on gains in my alternative energy, retail and steel longs. I have not traded today, thus the Portfolio’s market exposure remains 100% net long. The tone of the market is modestly negative as the advance/decline line is slightly lower, sector performance is mixed and volume is decent. Losses are mainly confined to the technology sector. Measures of investor anxiety are mixed. The downward revision to 4Q unit labor costs is a big positive as over two-thirds of inflation is comprised of this measure. Considering oil is trading near highs, the market’s performance is very good today and it appears as though the Bears are dropping the ball once again. I expect US stocks to trade higher from current levels into the close as optimism over US economic growth, short covering and stabilizing long-term interest rates offsets worries over stubbornly high energy prices.
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