Thursday, March 03, 2005

Thursday Close

Indices
S&P 500 1,210.47 +.03%
Dow 10,833.03 +.19%
NASDAQ 2,058.40 -.44%
Russell 2000 638.29 +.15%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,926.32 +.01%
S&P Barra Growth 583.20 +.03%
S&P Barra Value 622.81 +.03%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 587.86 -.08%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 771.81 +.01%
Morgan Stanley Technology 472.73 -.73%
Transports 3,760.59 +.22%
Utilities 354.90 +.41%
Put/Call .82 +2.50%
NYSE Arms 1.21 +32.97%
Volatility(VIX) 12.93 +3.44%
ISE Sentiment 189.00 +23.53%
US Dollar 83.28 +.24%
CRB 307.52 +.28%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 53.49 -.15%
Unleaded Gasoline 149.85 -.60%
Natural Gas 6.63 -.41%
Heating Oil 148.58 -.34%
Gold 430.80 % unch.
Base Metals 128.46 +1.43%
Copper 147.40 -.14%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.37% unch.

Leading Sectors
Oil Service +2.37%
Airlines +1.89%
Energy +1.72%

Lagging Sectors
Wireless -1.16%
Biotech -1.17%
Semis -1.27%

After-hours Movers
TACT -25.5% after missing 4Q estimates and lowering 1Q guidance.
FLML -14.4% after ending a licensing agreement that would have allowed Biovail to market an antiviral drug in the US and Canada.
CMOS -6.0% after missing 1Q estimates and lowering 2Qoutlook.

Detailed Market Summary
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
Futures Recap
NASDAQ 100 After-hours Indicator
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote

Afternoon Recommendations
- Goldman Sachs: Reiterated Outperform on MRVL.
- Raymond James: Rated THE Strong Buy, target $42. Reiterated Strong Buy on ALL, target $65. Reiterated Strong Buy on BBY, target $71.
- Morgan Stanley: Reiterated Overweight on HSIC, target $43. Reiterated Overweight on MHS, target $49.
- Deutsche Bank: Reiterated Buy on ARO, target $37.
- Banc of America: Reiterated Buy on SSI, target $70. Reiterated Buy on CHS, target $34.
- UBS: Reiterated Buy on FL, target $36.

After-hours News
US stocks finished mostly higher today as optimism over US economic reports mostly offset worries over higher energy prices. After the close, Iran accused the IAEA of leaking information form inspections of its nuclear facilities, the Financial Times reported. Financier Wilbur Ross has raised $35 million for a nanotechnology company that he hopes will play a key role in his drive to wring profits from bankrupt textile companies, Bloomberg reported. Billionaire financier Icahn reported buying a stake in Kerr-McGee and urged the company to sell its chemicals business and give he and another investor board seats, Bloomberg said. US retailers including Wal-Mart and Kohl’s posted their biggest sales gain in nine months in February, spurred by job growth and spring fashions, Bloomberg reported. The SEC approved a rule allowing mutual funds to charge a 2% redemption fee on frequent trades to deter market timing, Bloomberg said. Martha Stewart will be released from federal prison tonight after a five-month sentence for lying to regulators about a stock sale, Bloomberg reported. Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing, Singapore’s biggest chipmaker, lowered its first-quarter revenue forecast and said its loss will be “at the higher end” of its predictions, Bloomberg said. Martha Stewart’s daily tv show featuring the company’s founder will be broadcast in the top 20 US tv markets, Bloomberg reported. XM Satellite Radio and the Indy Racing League signed a multiyear agreement to broadcast races starting this weekend, including the Indy 500, Bloomberg said.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my alternative energy, retail and steel longs. I did not add any new positions in the afternoon, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market improved modestly from morning lows as the advance/decline line finished slightly lower, sector performance was mixed and volume fell. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly higher into the close ahead of tomorrow’s employment report. Technology stocks underperformed throughout the day and energy-related stocks outperformed. Gains in the airline sector were surprising considering the rise in oil. Overall, today’s performance was impressive considering the rise in oil. The bears had their chance to take stocks substantially lower and failed to do so. TradeSports.com is currently giving a 60% chance of the Non-farm payroll report exceeding the 225K estimate. I continue to expect a number slightly below or right around 225K which should result in a modest drop in long-term interest rates and a gain in stock prices. A blowout number above 325K would likely result in a spike in long-term interest rates and an initial decline in stocks. A number significantly below the estimate would likely result in a fairly large decline in long-term interest rates and a modest rally in stocks.

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