Saturday, March 12, 2005

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,200.08 -1.80%


Click here for the Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

Bottom Line: Overall, last week's market performance was negative. The advance/decline line fell, almost every sector declined and volume was light. Measures of investor anxiety were mixed on the week, which is a negative considering the steep losses in many market-leading stocks. The CRB Index has gone parabolic over the last 3 weeks and is now up 13.7% for the year. I suspect we have entered the blow-off phase in commodity prices before declines begin sometime during the next 2 quarters. The sharp losses in commodity-related stocks, even with the rise in the CRB, may be a result of investors anticipating the declines I foresee in the underlying commodity prices. Small-caps and interest rate sensitive sectors also underperformed for the week as worries over inflation increased. On the positive side, technology shares outperformed even with Friday's sell-off in the Semis. As well, the economically sensitive Transports hit an all-time high earlier in the week and finished roughly unchanged. Finally, volume was pretty light, which is also a positive.

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