Monday, March 21, 2005

Monday Watch

Weekend News
Cantor Fitzgerald LP, one of the two largest Treasury bond brokers, is in talks to buy a rival brokerage, the London-based Times said. The growth of wireless Internet access throughout the US is helping criminals hide their activities such as accessing child pornography and identity and credit card theft, the New York Times reported. A private retirement plan embraced as an alternative to Social Security in Galveston County, Texas, has been a boon to most public workers, the Washington Post reported. The top Marine in Iraq said the declining number of attacks against US troops in Sunni-dominated western Iraq indicates the insurgency is weakening, the NY Times reported. UN Secretary General Kofi Annan will present a plan on Monday to make the organization more effective and accountable, the LA Times reported. The Lytton Band of Pomo Indians shelved plans to build a Las Vegas-style casino in San Pablo, California, because of opposition from legislators, the San Francisco Chronicle reported. Aluminum Corp. of China is in talks with Yunnan Copper to buy the third-largest copper smelter in the country for at least $121 million, the Economic Observer reported. China's newest curbs on property loans are aimed at speculators, not ordinary citizens, China Central Television reported. Tim Draper, founder and managing director of venture capital firm Draper Fisher Jurvetson, has been investing in developers of peer-to-peer technology, which allows computers to communicate directly without a central system, the San Francisco Chronicle reported. Wal-Mart Stores plans to open stores in Bangkok, the Nation reported. India's economy will probably expand 6.7% next fiscal year, according to the IMF, the Business Standard reported. Barry Diller's IAC/InterActiveCorp is close to buying Ask Jeeves for about $2 billion in stock, the Wall Street Journal reported. Viacom's proposal to split the company into two separate units could double its cable networks' earnings multiple, the Financial Times reported, citing Chairman Redstone. India, China , Brazil and other developing nations urged rich countries to end all farm subsidies in five years, stepping up pressure on the US, Europe and Japan before key global trade talks in December, Bloomberg reported. Wal-Mart Stores said March sales are rising within its forecast as more shoppers in the Northeast bought food from its stores, Bloomberg said. President Bush said two years after the US liberated Iraq, the "Iraqi people are taking charge" of their own government and setting an example that is encouraging democracy in Lebanon and Iran, Bloomberg reported. A 6.4 magnitude earthquake jolted southwestern Japan, halting train services and shaking buildings, NHK Television reported. Bonds of Novartis AG, Europe's fourth-largest drugmaker, and Baxter International, the world's biggest maker of blood-disease treatments, are back in favor as investors shun risk after the worst week for European corporate debt since July 2003, Bloomberg said. Shares of Creative Technology, which competes with Apple Computer and Dell, are falling in Asia to a seven-month low on concern that rising competition and a shortage of parts may hurt the company's first-quarter earnings, Bloomberg reported. Michael Dell is preparing for expansion in India's PC market after the removal of import taxes that have made his company an also-ran in Asia's second-largest market, Bloomberg said. China's government plans to spend $777 million to cut emissions of sulfur dioxide from power plants, China Securities Journal said. US federal investigators are examining a memo to see what officials at Biogen Idec knew about the condition of two patients before the withdrawal of the drug Tysabri, the Wall Street Journal reported. Exxon Mobil and rivals such as Saudi Aramco and Total SA plan at least $11 billion of refinery additions as worldwide demand pushes gas prices to a record, Bloomberg said.

Weekend Recommendations
- Bulls and Bears: Had guests that were positive on SAH, TWX, VTIV, PTEN and mixed on SNE, CREAF, DEO, RCL, PLT, GM.
- Cavuto on Business: Had guests that were positive on DIS, BA and mixed on AIG, HPQ.
- Forbes on Fox: Had guests that were positive on BRK/B, MSFT, DELL and mixed on ECA, SBUX.
- Cashin' In: Had guests that were positive on STTS, IVX, JBLU, SWC, mixed on NLY and negative on GLW, EXTR.
- Business Week: Has a positive cover story on The Digital Hospital. Had a positive column on WDC, STX and EMC.
- Barron's: Had positive comments on LOGI. Had negative comments on Homebuilders AIG and GM.
- Goldman Sachs: Reiterated Outperform on NFX, ZION, EBAY, BAC, AET, BSX, WFC and AHC.

Night Trading
Asian indices are mixed, unch. to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.03%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.03%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell Video(bottom right)
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Analyst Actions
Macro Calls
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
CCL/.40
KBH/2.57
MLS/1.97
PAYX/.24
VTS/.33

Splits
BFAM 2-for-1
CWTR 3-for-2

Economic Data
None of note

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to open modestly higher in the morning on a bounce from last week's declines and a gain in the US dollar. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

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