Monday, March 28, 2005

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian joined as many as 1 million people in a mass rally in Taipei to protest against a Chinese law that authorizes attacking the island if it declares independence.
- NY-based Blackstone Group LP, manager of the world's biggest buyout fund, is leading an investor group in a $14.9 billion bid to acquire Italian mobile telephone company Wind SpA.
- Wal-Mart Stores said March sales at stores open at least a year are rising within its forecast as shoppers bought more food.
- Investors in US Treasury securities are their most bullish in seven weeks, reflecting optimism that the highest 10-year note yields since June offer adequate compensation for inflation.
- As the US dollar heads for the biggest quarterly advance against the euro since 2001, traders are more bullish on the US currency than they have been in 17 months, according to a Bloomberg survey.
- Crude oil futures in NY are falling, extending a 3.3% decline last week, after Qatar's energy minister said OPEC's customers weren't asking for more oil, reducing concern about global shortages.
- Boeing said it may raise its forecast for 2006 deliveries because of higher-than-expected demand from Chinese and Indian airlines.
- The US dollar may gain against the yen this year, snapping a three-year drop, as rising interest rates and a strong US economy increase the appeal of US assets, said Makoto Utsumi, a former top currency official at Japan's Ministry of Finance.
- McDonald's, Borders Group and 50 other companies have lopped more than $1.5 billion off their reported pretax earnings since federal regulators urged them in November to review how they account for leases of stores and other rental properties.

Wall Street Journal:
- Boeing plans to sell a new version of it 702 commercial satellite to help return the division to profitability this year.
- A group of 26 former Democrat and Republican national-security officials will send a letter tomorrow to US President Bush asking the federal government to spend as much as $1 billion in the next five years on cutting fossil fuel dependence.

NY Times:
- AIG is close to a decision to remove Maurice "Hank" Greenberg as chairman as his appearance before prosecutors investigating reinsurance transactions nears.
- A growing number of families of critically ill patients are fighting to keep their loved ones alive through advances in medical technology, even when doctors believe it is time to let the patients die.
- Digital set-top boxes that allow viewers to pause and replay live tv and skip commercials also give advertisers new ways to customize ads according to viewing habits.
- Dayton, Ohio, which has established 40 charter schools and is planning nine more, has become a subject of interest to educators as the system competes with public schools for students and money.
- Investigators on three continents are examining units of billionaire investor Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway for possible financial manipulation.

Washington Post:
- The Bush administration is contacting Syrian opposition groups and assessing political trends there amid concern their nation's military withdrawal from Lebanon may destabilize the Damascus regime.

Chicago Tribune:
- Ten drugmakers, including GlaxoSmithKline, Pfizer and Novartis AG, plan to begin an advertising campaign to promote a drug card for US residents without health insurance.

Crain's Chicago Business:
- Chicago's Pritzker family is in talks to acquire the remaining 50% of the top-grossing casino in Illinois from its partner, Mandalay Resort Group.

Seattle Times:
- Microsoft is bolstering alliances in Washington as part of a long-term strategy to repair damage from its federal antitrust case and gain a voice in new media regulations.

Time Magazine:
- US Customs and Border Protection officials said they are planning to increase resources this week to target illegal immigration from Mexico to Arizona.

Daily Telegraph:
- General Motors may scrap some brands, such as Pontiac and Buick, as it tries to reverse a decline in sales.

Sunday Times:
- Elan Corp.'s directors are considering splitting off the company's San-Francisco-based biotechnology unit from its drugs delivery business.
- Ford Motor is preparing to put $934 million of new investment into its Jaguar brand.

Independent on Sunday:
- A group within the UK Labour government is preparing a plan for constructing up to 10 new nuclear reactors in Britain.

Bild am Sonntag:
- The European Union's foreign-policy chief said China's policies toward Taiwan are raising "concern" among EU member states, even if the bloc is still seeking to scrap a weapons ban against China.

Weekend Recommendations
Bulls and Bears:
- Had guests that were positive on XOM, USU, COHR, DCX, UPS, SFD, mixed on C, MSFT, BUD, FHN, KOMG, KO, MVL and negative on AAPL, TOL, GE, FDX.

Cavuto on Business:
- Had guests that were positive on GM and mixed on EMC, TSO, ASO, WM.

Forbes on Fox:
- Had guests that were positive on VLO, SPI, WYE, mixed on PKZ, LUV and negative on SHOP.

Cashin' In:
- Had guests that were positive on SNE and mixed on WMT, PG.

Business Week:
- Had a positive columns on ADSK and YHOO.

Barron's:
- Had positive comments on GM's mini-bonds, COP, CNX, KWK, COG, TIF, ALSK and negative comments on X.

Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on NSM, CAN, YHOO, BSX, GOOG, EBAY, CL and MCHP.
- Reiterated Cautious view of Slot Manufacturers.
- Sees multiple catalysts for Gaming stocks in April, favorites are STN, WYNN and LVS.

Night Trading
Asian indices are mixed, -1.0% to +.75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.22%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.24%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell Video(bottom right)
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Analyst Actions
Macro Calls
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
BKST/1.60
WAG/.48
IPXL/.14

Splits
QSII 2-for-1

Economic Data
None of note

BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are mixed tonight as gains in exporting stocks are offsetting losses in commodity-related shares in the region. China's Shanghai A-Share Index is falling again and is at cycle lows, down 28.9% in the last 12 months and 42.9% from its all-time high set in June 2001. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher in the morning on a bounce from last week's declines, a gain in the US dollar and lower energy prices. The Portfolio is Market Neutral heading into the week.

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