Wednesday, March 16, 2005

Mid-day Report

Indices
S&P 500 1,190.43 -.61%
Dow 10,662.19 -.77%
NASDAQ 2,023.16 -.58%
Russell 2000 624.48 -.37%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,738.60 -.62%
S&P Barra Growth 571.70 -.65%
S&P Barra Value 614.13 -.62%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 577.55 -.69%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 766.89 -1.33%
Morgan Stanley Technology 461.41 -.79%
Transports 3,764.06 -1.37%
Utilities 356.95 -.58%
Put/Call 1.0 +20.48%
NYSE Arms 1.03 -24.26%
Volatility(VIX) 13.60 +3.42%
ISE Sentiment 127.00 -7.97%
US Dollar 81.64 -.58%
CRB 322.65 +.67%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 55.70 +1.18%
Unleaded Gasoline 152.80 +1.37%
Natural Gas 7.10 -1.03%
Heating Oil 157.70 +1.61%
Gold 444.10 +.61%
Base Metals 131.48 +.67%
Copper 150.80 +1.17%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.51% +1.17%

Leading Sectors
Wireless +.70%
Energy +.32%
Disk Drives +.32%

Lagging Sectors
Networking -1.33%
Papers -1.48%
Iron/Steel -1.72%

Market Movers
GM -13.4% after forecasting its largest quarterly loss since 1992 as Toyota Motor takes market share.
RIMM +17.93% after agreeing to pay NTP Inc. $450 million to end a patent dispute and multiple upgrades.
OPNT +23.46% after saying that Cisco Systems will distribute its products worldwide.
CVNS +18.2% after announcing restatement of prior results and beating 4Q estimates.
SNIC +18.82% on JMP Securities upgrade to Strong Buy.
SIGM +16.79% after meeting 4Q estimates and Needham upgrade to Strong Buy.
CIB +13.59% after UBS upgrade to Buy.
NMG/A +10.14% after saying it hired Goldman Sachs as a financial adviser to explore strategic alternatives.
BCR +6.68% after boosting 1Q guidance.
ARTC +12.95% after beating 4Q estimates and First Albany upgrade to Buy.
LFB +11.81% after saying it retained Goldman Sachs to evaluate possible conversion to REIT.
DRL -14.99% on Wachovia downgrade to Underperform.
MSTR -12.97% after saying its auditor is leaving and multiple downgrades.
TELK -8.25% after Lehman Brothers downgrade to Equal Weight.
STLD -6.61% after lowering 1Q guidance.

Mid-day Overview
Market Internals
I-Watch Sector Overview
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Hot Spots
Option Dragon
Real-time Intraday Chart/Quote

Economic Data
- The 4Q Current Account Balance fell to -$187.9B versus estimates of -$183.0B and -$165.9B in 3Q.
- Housing Starts for February rose to 2195K versus estimates of 2067K and an upwardly revised 2132K in January.
- Building Permits for February rose to 2074K versus estimates of 2067K and an upwardly revised 2132K in January.
- Industrial Production for February rose .3% versus estimates of a .4% gain and a .1% increase in January.
- Capacity Utilization for February rose to 79.4% versus estimates of 79.2% and a reading of 79.2% in January

Recommendations
- Goldman Sachs: Reiterated Outperform on NKE.
- Smith Barney: Reiterated Buy on FHR, target $38. Reiterated Buy on AMAT, target $22. Reiterated Buy on ACE, target $53. Reiterated Buy on ABX, target $30.
- UBS: Raised CIB to Buy, target $16.83.
- Deutsche Bank: Raised CPB to Buy, target $33. Rated CE Buy, target $21.
- Wachovia: Raised DKS to Outperform. Downgraded DRL to Underperform.
- Banc of America: Rated THLD Buy.
- Lehman Brothers: Rated DWA Overweight, target $43.
- CIBC: Rated THLD Sector Outperform, target $11. Rated ICGN Sector Outperform, target $10. Rated FVRL Sector Outperform, target $10.
- Legg Mason: Raised RIMM to Buy, target $87.
- Raymond James: Raised LAD to Strong Buy, target $33.

Mid-day News

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher mid-day on gains in my Energy-related longs, Networking shorts and Chinese ADR shorts. I took profits in a few shorts this morning and added some new shorts from various sectors, thus leaving the Portfolio’s market exposure 25% net short. One of my new shorts is ERTS and I am using a $68.5 stop-loss on this position. The tone of the market is negative today as the advance/decline line is lower, most sectors are declining and volume is decent. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly higher. Today’s overall market action is negative, considering the rise in bonds and good economic reports. A number of market-leading stocks continue to remain under pressure. A further rise in investor anxiety is needed to put a tradable bottom in place. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower from current levels into the close on worries over rising energy prices and technical deterioration. I am still experiencing technical problems with this site. Hopefully the problems will be corrected shortly.

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