Monday, March 14, 2005

Monday Watch

Weekend News
China's steel production capacity will rise to 350 million metric tons this year as new mills start operating, 21st Century Business Herald said. Clear Channel Communications, the biggest US radio broadcaster, is planning a bid for Mean Fiddler Music Group Plc, the Independent reported. Hamas, a radical Islamic movement, will take part in Palestinian legislative elections in July, ending the group's boycott of mainstream politics, AFP reported. Italian intelligence officers in Iraq didn't tell US forces about the release of kidnapped anti-war journalist Giuliana Sgrena before a US patrol fired on the car carrying her, La Repubblica reported. Syrian President al-Assad has agreed to withdraw all military and intelligence personnel from Lebanon, AFP reported. EBay CEO Whitman has withdrawn as a candidate to replace Michael Eisner as Walt Disney's CEO, the Wall Street Journal reported. Charles Schwab is cutting prices and adding services as the company's founder, Charles R. Schwab, seeks to reclaim customers who have defected, the NY Times reported. Howard Stringer, who was named Sony Corp.'s first non-Japanese CEO this week, expects change to come slowly at the consumer-electronics maker, Barron's reported. The number and value of leveraged buyouts among US businesses are increasing to their highest levels in more than a decade as companies sell off lagging divisions, Barron's reported. Commercial airline travelers in the US are finding it much more difficult to easily redeem frequent-flier miles granted by major airlines on flights and times of their choosing, the NY Times reported. Republican Senator Ted Stevens, chairman of the US Senate Commerce Committee, said that cable providers should also offer groups of channels free of indecent material, Reuters reported. Israel has made plans for air and ground attacks on targets in Iran should diplomatic efforts fail to halt an Iranian nuclear program, the London-based Times reported. OPEC this week may informally allow members to pump oil above official output limits, Reuters reported. Walt Disney's board is close to announcing that President Robert Iger will succeed Michael Eisner as CEO, Dow Jones Newswires said. China's President Hu Jintao called for an end to breakneck economic expansion and urged more focus on the quality of growth to ease pressure on the country's environment and energy supplies, the Xinhua news agency reported. Motorola and Chinese phone-equipment make Huawei Technologies are open to looking at Siemens AG's mobile-phone unit, weekly magazine Focus said. Two-thirds of Massachusetts residents support stem-cell research using human embryos, a Boston Globe poll showed today. Iraq-based terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi may be plotting ways to attack schools, movie theatres, restaurants and other so-called soft targets in the US, Time magazine reported. Brazil's economy may expand 4% to 5% in 2005 as exports rise and the currency strengthens, O Globo reported. Federal lawmakers are considering restrictions to prevent the spread of tribal casinos into urban areas in California and other states, away from reservations, the San Francisco Chronicle reported. JC Penney or Nordstrom may purchase stores closed by Federated Department Stores, Barron's said. Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian has asked for a million of the island's people to join a protest march this week against China's planned anti-secession law, the Financial Times reported. Qingdao Haier, a unit of China's biggest home-appliance maker, has orders an undisclosed number of flat panel television screens from AU Optronics to start selling TVs in Europe, the Commercial Times reported. Las Vegas Sands is close to signing up Marriott International, Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide and several other hotel groups to its $1.8 billion casino project in Macau, the Asian Wall Street Journal reported. Och-Ziff Capital Management and Cerberus Capital Management are among hedge funds recruiting executives from private equity companies to help them expand in leveraged buy-outs, the Financial Times reported. Macquarie Bank Ltd., AES Corp., Genting International Plc, Keppel Corp. and Meiya Power Co. may bid for El Paso Corp's Asian power plants, Project Finance International reported. Iran played down the significance of trade incentives offered by the European Union and the US, saying they won't deprive the country of its "right" to build up nuclear power, Bloomberg reported. Wal-Mart Stores said March sales are rising within its forecast as shoppers spend more on food, Bloomberg said. US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice today opposes a plan by China's legislature to pass a law authorizing an attack on Taiwan should the island declare independence, Bloomberg reported. Philip Morris agreed to buy 40% of PT HM Sampoerna Tbk, Indonesia's third-largest tobacco company, for $2 billion, Bloomberg said. Italy's ENI SpA, ChevronTexaco Corp. and China National Offshore Oil Corp. are all considering bids for Unocal Corp., the Wall Street Journal reported.

Weekend Recommendations
- Bulls and Bears: Had guests that were positive on VLO, XOM, DIS, BRK/B, HON, SBUX, MSFT, MANH, mixed on IPXL, BRO, ELY and negative on TOL, EBAY.
- Cavuto on Business: Had guests that were mixed on NKE, PMMAY, PEP and SWC.
- Barron's: Had positive comments on JPM, WM, BAC, MRK, PFE, KMG, OXY, DOW and FCX. Had negative comments on WMT and ERICY.
- Forbes: Had a negative column on RIMM.
- Goldman Sachs: Reiterated Outperform on BBG, EBAY, ACS and HOT.

Night Trading
Asian indices are mostly lower, -.50% to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.11%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.16%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell Video(bottom right)
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Analyst Actions
Macro Calls
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
CMVT/.09
ELBO/1.62
LBTYA/-.03
OMX/.18
PDLI/-.15
SSI/.23
URI/.26
WPSC/.35

Splits
AET 2-for-1

Economic Data
None of note

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to open modestly higher in the morning on a bounce from last week's declines. However, shares may weaken later in the day on continuing worries over the recent rise in energy prices/interest rates and rising geopolitical tensions. The Portfolio is Market Neutral heading into the week.

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