Thursday, March 31, 2005

Mid-day Scoreboard

Indices
S&P 500 1,180.88 -.04%
DJIA 10,506.05 -.33%
NASDAQ 1,998.14 -.38%
Russell 2000 613.77 -.18%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,637.89 +.07%
S&P Barra Growth 569.83 -.18%
S&P Barra Value 607.60 +.24%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 578.18 -.24%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 748.20 +.71%
Morgan Stanley Technology 456.29 -.44%
Transports 3,712.50 -.64%
Utilities 357.65 +.90%
Put/Call .79 -4.82%
NYSE Arms 1.12 +95.27%
Volatility(VIX) 13.90 +1.69%
ISE Sentiment 173.00 +16.11%
US Dollar 84.02 -.32%
CRB 315.50 +1.44%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 55.60 +3.07%
Unleaded Gasoline 164.80 +3.25%
Natural Gas 7.69 +3.08%
Heating Oil 166.80 +3.82%
Gold 430.80 +.30%
Base Metals 130.33 +1.39%
Copper 150.10 +.60%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.50% -.98%

Leading Sectors
Oil Service +2.76%
Energy +1.75%
Commodity +1.60%

Lagging Sectors
Networking -1.02%
Restaurants -1.43%
Airlines -1.77%

Links of Interest
Market Internals
Movers & Shakers
I-Watch Sector Overview
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Hot Spots
Option Dragon
Real-time Intraday Chart/Quote

BOTTOM LINE: US stocks are modestly lower mid-day on worries over higher energy prices. The Portfolio is slightly lower as losses in my Base Metal shorts and Networking longs are more than offsetting gains in my Homebuilding and Software longs. I exited some Tech longs this morning as they hit stop-losses, thus bringing the Portfolio’s market exposure to 50% net long. The tone of the market is modestly negative as the advance/decline line is lower, sector performance is mixed and volume is light. Technology stocks are underperforming, while Cyclical stocks are outperforming and measures of investor anxiety are mixed. Today’s overall market action is neutral. It is a positive that stocks are maintaining yesterday’s gains for the most part even with Goldman Sachs’, the largest trader of energy derivatives, outrageous $105/bbl. spike oil call on the last day of the quarter. However, with long-term interest rates declining, I would have expected stocks to rise notwithstanding that call. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close as short-covering, bargain hunting, quarter-end window-dressing and lower long-term interest rates more than offsets worries over higher energy prices.

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