Monday, March 07, 2005

Monday Watch

Weekend News
China will not alter its currency reserves away from the dollar and won't adjust its policy on the yuan, said Guo Shuqing, head of China's foreign-exchange regulator. The smuggling of a more potent variety of marijuana from Canada to the US has boosted the level of drug trafficking and violent crime, the NY Times reported. The British Broadcasting Corp. is facing criticism for paying a convicted criminal to appear in a documentary related to his crime, the Daily Telegraph reported. Kmart Holding Corp., the No. 3 US discount retailer which is buying Sears, will move its headquarters to Chicago from Michigan within a year, the Detroit Free Press reported. Walt Disney's Space Mountain roller-coaster ride will reopen July 15, in time for the company's 50th anniversary of its Disneyland park in Anaheim, California, the Orange County Register reported. The median asking-price for homes in King County, where Seattle is located, rose 15% in February to $415,000, the Seattle Times reported. Canadian and US officials are seeking to broaden their joint air-defense arrangement to include shared land and maritime threats, the Toronto Start reported. BP Plc hired Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to advise it on the IPO of its chemicals unit, Bloomberg reported. UnitedHealth and Medco Health Solutions are among a growing list of insurers and pharmacy-benefit managers who have agreed to participate in the new Medicare drug benefit, the NY Times reported. The US Senate will vote as soon as this week on legislation aimed at making consumer bankruptcy more difficult, the Washington Post reported. EBay may be unable to sustain growth as it faces complaints from users over fee increases, service and lower selling prices, the NY Times reported. Black churches in the US are starting to align with Republicans over social issues, including same-sex marriage, the NY Times said. Iran reiterated its permanent commitment to enriching uranium Saturday and warned that any sanctions from the UN could affect security and stability in the region, the NY Times reported. Shipments of cargo on the US West Coast will increase 14% this year from 2004 according to the Pacific Maritime Association in San Francisco. Alternative treatments such as acupuncture and the use of drugs like ibuprofen are on the rise as patients try to replace Merck's Vioxx Painkiller, the NY Times said. Finance ministers from the Group of Seven industrial countries agree the next World Bank president should hail from the US, Bloomberg reported. Tobacco stocks, which have outperformed the broader stock market over the past five years, may be nearing the end of their rally as growth in cigarette smoking slows, the NY Times reported. Nasdaq Stock Market Inc. submitted a bid last month for Reuters Group's Instinet, a purchase that would give Nasdaq a 50% share of electronic trading in the US, Crain's NY Business said. STMicroelectronics NV will move its global production of RFID chips to Singapore by the third-quarter in response to an expected surge in demand for the product by Wal-Mart Stores, the Business Times said. Xiamen Airlines will buy 15 737-800 planes from Boeing for $615 million, the Asian Wall Street Journal reported. Merrill Lynch and Goldman Sachs may seek a license to open a bank in India, the Economic Times reported. Advanced Micro Devices Chairman Ruiz will visit computer makers in Taiwan tomorrow, aiming to help boost sales, the Economic Daily News reported. Reuters Group Plc may plan to offer its news and information services to consumers on their cell phones and other electronic platforms, the Financial Times said. World steel prices may begin falling from the middle of 2005 due to slowing demand in China, the Financial Times said, citing an interview with Duferco SA Chairman Bolfo. China will allow the market to play a bigger role in setting the value of its currency, the China Daily said. ESPN last week started a free online poker game which attracted 30,000 people within a few days, the Financial Times said. China's Premier Wen Jiabao announced plans to slow growth in the world's fastest-growing major economy to 8% this year by clamping down on urban infrastructure projects and spending more on lagging rural areas, Bloomberg reported. Wal-Mart said March sales at US stores open at least a year are rising within forecast as shoppers used tax refunds, Bloomberg said. Medtronic may capture at least 10% of the $5 billion market for drug-coated heart stents, cutting into profit growth at Boston Scientific and Johnson & Johnson, Bloomberg reported. Iraq's new parliament will hold its first session on March 16, AFP reported. Berkshire Hathaway, run by billionaire Warren Buffett, said its reinsurance unit may be accused of contributing to the 2001 collapse of HIH Insurance Ltd, Bloomberg reported. Capital One Financial, the fifth-biggest US credit-card issuer, said it agreed to buy Hibernia Corp. for $5.35 billion in stock and cash to add a network of bank branches, Bloomberg said. News Corp. Chairman Rupert Murdoch is still considering whether to launch a new business channel to compete with CNBC, the NY Times reported.

Weekend Recommendations
- Bulls and Bears: Had guests that were positive on TAP, DBD, DLM, WAG, PFE, CLX, INTC, BIID, mixed on RSH, AAPL and negative on SYMC, MSO.
- Cashin' In: Had guests that were mixed on MXIM, FDX, GTRX, mixed on ODFL, LGF, XMSR and negative on MSO.
- Forbes on Fox: Had guests that were positive on SNDA, NTES, PRU, ENR, BTU and negative on MSO.
- Cavuto on Business: Had guests that were positive on GE, YUM, VWSYF and negative on MSO.
- Barron's: Had positive comments on Ford Motor bonds, airport-related municipal securities from AMR's American Airlines unit, CSCO, home electronics and cable stocks.
- Business Week: Had a positive column on Business Intelligence Software stocks.
- Goldman Sachs: Reiterated Outperform on DNA, INTC, NSM, FSL and EBAY.
- Smith Barney: Reiterated Overweight on Financial stocks and said Future Inflation Gauges are falling.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are higher, +.25% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.04%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.23%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell Video(bottom right)
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Analyst Actions
Macro Calls
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
DKS/.77
MVL/.15
SBTV/.93
KCS/.58

Splits
None of note.

Economic Data
- Consumer Credit for January is estimated to rise $5.1B versus an increase of $3.1B in December.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to open modestly higher in the morning on optimism over merger activity, strong economic reports and last week's technical breakouts. The Portfolio is 125% net long heading into the week.

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