Tuesday, March 01, 2005

Tuesday Close

Indices
S&P 500 1,210.41 +.57%
Dow 10,830.00 +.59%
NASDAQ 2,071.25 +.95%
Russell 2000 638.53 +.70%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,927.83 +.57%
S&P Barra Growth 582.66 +.46%
S&P Barra Value 623.32 +.67%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 589.65 +.75%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 774.73 +.37%
Morgan Stanley Technology 477.60 +.96%
Transports 3,759.30 +.88%
Utilities 353.08 +.05%
Put/Call .89 +30.88%
NYSE Arms .88 -38.89%
Volatility(VIX) 12.04 -.33%
ISE Sentiment 140.00 -30.69%
US Dollar 82.78 +.33%
CRB 305.26 +.09%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 51.67 -.02%
Unleaded Gasoline 140.30 +.02%
Natural Gas 6.68 unch.
Heating Oil 146.45 -.05%
Gold 433.40 -.12%
Base Metals 128.00 -.23%
Copper 146.45 unch.
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.36% -.27%

Leading Sectors
Airlines +4.79%
Retail +2.59%
Semis +2.25%

Lagging Sectors
Energy -2.12%
Iron/Steel -2.17%
Oil Service -2.52%

After-hours Movers
PSUN +3.55% after beating 4Q estimates and reporting strong February same-store-sales.
TIBX -13.82% after lowering 1Q estimates substantially.
LEA -13.08% after cutting 1Q forecast substantially.
VRTY -10.01% after cutting 3Q estimates substantially.
KTO -8.7% after beating 4Q estimates and lowering 05 outlook.
NKTR -5.82% after beating 4Q estimates and restating prior results.

Detailed Market Summary
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
Futures Recap
NASDAQ 100 After-hours Indicator
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote

Afternoon Recommendations
- Goldman Sachs: Reiterated Outperform on XOM, target $90. Reiterated Underperform on MMC.
- Prudential: Raised CTSH to Overweight, target $54. Reiterated Buy on DHI, target $53.
- Banc of America: Reiterated Buy on HOV, target $64.
- Legg Mason: Reiterated Buy on PGNX, target $31.
- Lehman Brothers: Upgraded UNFI to Overweight. Reiterated Buy on SBL, target $21. Reiterated Buy on MOVI, target $26.
- UBS: Reiterated Buy on VSEA, target $48.
- Deutsche Bank: Reiterated Buy on DD, target $62.
- Smith Barney: Reiterated Buy on RCI, target $48.
- Merrill Lynch: Reiterated Buy on BXP, target $67.
- CSFB: Reiterated Outperform on SHS, target $24.

After-hours News
US stocks finished higher today on optimism over US economic growth and stabilizing long-term interest rates. After the close, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Fiorina is among candidates to become the next president of the World Bank, the NY Times reported. Ahmed Omar Ali, a Virginia man accused of planning the assassination of President Bush, talked about the plans after joining al-Qaeda while studying in Saudi Arabia, the FBI said. Morgan Stanley’s real estate unit may invest $4 billion in Europe this year, part of it in the German property market, the Financial Times said. Iraq’s former deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz was interrogated for eight hours yesterday by representatives of a UN panel probing the UN/Iraq oil-for-food scandal, AFP reported. Qwest Communications was given “substantial access” to MCI financial information and representatives of the two companies discussed merger proposals in 25 meetings, Bloomberg reported. General Electric CEO Immelt expects faster earnings growth from industrial businesses than financial areas for the first time in two decades, Bloomberg reported. A US judge dismissed Rambus’ patent infringement lawsuit against German chipmaker Infineon Technologies AG, Bloomberg reported. Bank of America said the SEC is conducting a formal investigation into trading and research related activities by its Banc of America Securities unit between 1999 and 2001, Bloomberg said. US bankruptcy filings dropped in 2004 for the first time in four years, Bloomberg reported. Canadian consumer interest in satellite radio continues to grow, with almost four million people expressing interest in the service within the next year, according to Decima Research. China’s inflation rate will probably remain within 4% this year because of stable grain prices, Shanghai Securities News reported.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished substantially higher today on gains in my semi, alternative energy and biotechnology longs. I added a number of new longs from various sectors in the afternoon, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. One of my new longs is ESLR and I am using a $6.50 stop-loss on this new position. The tone of the market improved into the afternoon as the advance/decline line finished near its highs for the day, almost every non-commodity-related sector gained and volume was decent. Measures of investor anxiety were mixed on the day, while consumer-oriented and technology shares outperformed. My short-term trading indicators have improved and I expect the DJIA and S&P 500 to make new cycle highs within days, barring a substantial rise in long-term interest rates or energy prices. I also expect the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq to break to the upside from their recent trading ranges.

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