Thursday, September 30, 2010

Bull Radar


Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value (-.24%)
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Banks +.89% 2) Wireless +.57% 3) HMOs +.52%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • VRNT, CSIQ, OPLK, LOGI, CHBT, MTW, SNX, CVD and CXW
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) ACAS 2) RSH 3) CSIQ 4) AIG 5) SD
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) AIG 2) BA 3) GOOG 4) AAPL 5) PBR

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Thursday Watch



Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

  • Fed Presidents Far From Unanimous on Need for Further Easing. Regional Federal Reserve presidents showed they’re far from unanimous on whether the central bank should try to boost flagging U.S. growth with a second round of unconventional monetary easing. Policy makers have the tools to act and should respond “vigorously, creatively, thoughtfully and persistently” to a slow recovery, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said in a New York speech today. He spoke minutes after Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser said in New Jersey that the central bank would put its credibility at stake by taking actions such as buying more securities that may fail to reduce unemployment. The range of views shows that if Chairman Ben S. Bernanke aims to restart Treasury purchases in November, as some economists project, he may have to do so over the objections of several central bank officials.
  • Portugal Yields Hit 13-Year High to Spain as Deficits Diverge: Euro Credit. Portugal’s budget stalemate is driving the nation’s bond yields to the highest levels in at least 13 years relative to neighboring Spain, which has been more successful in tackling its budget deficit. Investors demand 223 basis points more in yield to lend to Portugal for 10 years than to Spain. That’s more than 20 times the level at the start of this year as Portuguese leaders failed to agree on a plan to cut the European Union’s fourth-largest deficit. The gap between Portuguese bonds and those of Germany, the European benchmark, reached a euro-era record of 441 basis points on Sept. 28. “If you combine the lagging deficit with the situation between the opposition and the government, the result is depicted in the spreads,” said Ioannis Sokos, a London-based interest-rate strategist at BNP Paribas SA.
  • U.S. House Passes Measure Pushing China on Yuan Value. The U.S. House of Representatives passed legislation prodding China to raise the value of the yuan, as Democratic lawmakers pressed election-season proposals they said would increase factory employment. The measure on China’s currency passed 348-79, with 99 Republicans joining Democrats.
  • CFTC Said to Propose 20% Limit on Bank Ownership of Swaps Clearinghouses. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is considering limiting the ownership stakes that banks and investors have in swaps clearinghouses, exchanges and trading systems to 20 percent, people familiar with the matter said. The CFTC, which is presenting its first proposed rules Oct. 1 for the $615 trillion over-the-counter derivatives market, may not grant exemptions for existing entities, said the people, who declined to be identified because the deliberations haven’t been made public. For clearinghouse stakes, no group of bank holding companies, non-bank financial firms, major swaps users or dealers will be allowed to own more than 40 percent of the entities, the people said.
  • Ireland Said to Weigh Taking Majority Stake in Allied Irish. The Irish government is in talks with Allied Irish Banks Plc, the nation’s second-largest lender, that may result in the state taking majority ownership of the bank, said two people with direct knowledge of the discussions. The talks revolve around whether Allied Irish, already 18.7 percent owned by the government, needs to raise more than the 7.4 billion euros ($10.1 billion) Ireland’s financial regulator directed it to raise in March, people briefed on the matter said today. The talks may last through the night and a decision is set to be announced before European markets open tomorrow, one of the people said.
  • Debt Markets Bifurcate as Banks Hoard, Bond Funds Flourish: Credit Markets. Record-low borrowing costs for the biggest U.S. companies such as Microsoft Corp. are failing to trickle down to Mel Hodges’s five-person computer consulting firm in Pennsylvania.
  • Pentagon Losing Control of Bombs to China Neodymium Monopoly. A senior manager at a company that churns out metals routinely used in U.S. smart bombs pauses in mid-sentence when his phone rings: a Wall Street stockbroker looking for information. He makes a note to have an assistant call back -- someone who is fluent in English, not just Chinese. “It’s a seller’s market now,” says Bai Baosheng, 43, puffing a cigarette in his office in Baotou, China, where his company sells bags of powder containing a metallic element known as neodymium, vital in tiny magnets that direct the fins of bombs dropped by U.S. Air Force jets in Afghanistan. A generation after Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping made mastering neodymium and 16 other elements known as rare earths a priority, China dominates the market, with far-reaching effects ranging from global trade friction to U.S. job losses and threats to national security.
  • JPMorgan(JPM) Asks Judges to Delay Rulings as It Reviews Foreclosure Documents. JPMorgan Chase & Co. , the third- largest U.S. servicer of mortgages, said it’s asking judges to postpone rulings in pending foreclosure cases while the bank reviews and possibly resubmits statements. JPMorgan began to “systematically re-examine” foreclosure filings after learning that employees may have signed affidavits without personally reviewing underlying records, said Thomas Kelly, a spokesman for the New York-based firm.
  • Ambac Sues Bank of America(BAC) Over Countrywide Bonds. Ambac Assurance Corp. sued Bank of America Corp. over $16.7 billion of mortgage-backed securities, saying the bank’s Countrywide Financial Corp. unit fraudulently induced Ambac to insure bonds backed by improperly made loans. Ambac found that 97 percent of 6,533 loans it reviewed across 12 securitizations sponsored by Countrywide didn’t conform to the lender’s underwriting guidelines, according to the complaint filed yesterday in New York state Supreme Court. Many of the loans were made to borrowers with limited or no ability to meet their payment obligations, Ambac said.
  • Japan Factory Output Unexpectedly Fell in August, Adding to Signs of Slump. Japan’s industrial production unexpectedly fell in August, adding to concerns the nation’s export-led recovery is slowing. Factory output decreased 0.3 percent from July, the third monthly decline, the Trade Ministry said in Tokyo today. The median estimate of 26 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 1.1 percent gain. Signs of diminished global demand and the yen’s appreciation are threatening earnings of companies from Murata Manufacturing Co. to Nissan Motor Co. Exports grew the least this year in August and the Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey yesterday showed companies forecast pessimists will outnumber optimists by year-end. “This number was pretty disappointing,” said Mari Iwashita, chief market economist at Nikko Cordial Securities in Tokyo. “It clearly shows decelerating overseas demand is weighing on output.”

Wall Street Journal:
  • BHP(BHP), Rio Tinto(RTP) May Re-Evaluate Mining Venture. BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto executives are evaluating revisions to or a postponement of their proposed $116 billion iron-ore venture in Australia in the face of stiff regulatory hurdles, according to people familiar with the matter.
  • Interactive Brokers(IBKR) Reconsidering Market-Making Role - CEO. The head of Interactive Brokers Group Inc. (IBKR) said that his firm's market-making unit may withdraw from some options markets or even convert into a high-frequency trading firm because of what the company views as an unfair regulatory regime.
  • The Only Policy Left: Growth. The GOP needs leaders willing to do what's necessary to get it.
  • European Police Probe Terror Plot. European police are searching for a suspected hit team believed to be operating in Europe, and possibly planning a shooting spree in an urban center, according to a senior intelligence official. The investigation, driven by U.S. intelligence, is focusing on a man of unknown age and background known only as "Mauritani," the official said. The threat reports are too broad for specific action, intelligence officials say, although the strongest intelligence suggests that the group may be preparing an attack against an unprotected target or targets in the U.K., France or Germany.
  • Infighting Besets Financial-Oversight Council. Some of the country's top financial regulators are clashing over turf just days before a crucial meeting designed to kick off a new oversight council, a centerpiece of the financial-regulation bill, according to people familiar with the matter.
  • Democrats and the Health-Reform Albatross. By making so many misleading claims, the president created an army of opposition.
  • McDonald's(MCD) May Drop Health Care. McDonald's Corp. has warned federal regulators that it could drop its health insurance plan for nearly 30,000 hourly restaurant workers unless regulators waive a new requirement of the U.S. health overhaul. The move is one of the clearest indications that new rules may disrupt workers' health plans as the law ripples through the real world. Trade groups representing restaurants and retailers say low-wage employers might halt their coverage if the government doesn't loosen a requirement for "mini-med" plans, which offer limited benefits to some 1.4 million Americans.
  • Finally, Some Hope. Republicans show that they're serious about curbing runaway government. How big has the government grown under the Obama administration? "The average level of U.S. government spending as a percentage of GDP from the end of World War II to the present is 19.6 percent," observes the Heritage Foundation. "In the past two years that level has exploded, reaching 24.7 percent in 2009 and an estimated 25.4 in 2010. . . . Without urgent action the U.S. is on course for national bankruptcy."
CNBC:
Business Insider:
Zero Hedge:
  • Mark Pittman Wins: Fed to Disclose Emergency Lending Details by December 1. Mark Pittman's last valiant effort to bring some transparency to the most destructive organization in the history of mankind has succeeded. According to testimony to be delivered to the House tomorrow, "under a framework established by the act, the Federal Reserve will, by December 1, provide detailed information regarding individual transactions conducted across a range of credit and liquidity programs over the period from December 1, 2007, to July 20, 2010. This information will include the names of counterparties, the date and dollar value of individual transactions, the terms of repayment, and other relevant information.
CNNMoney.com:
Real Clear Politics:
Rasmussen Reports:
Politico:
  • Landrieu Won't Drop Hold on Lew. Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) will not lift her hold on Office of Management and Budget director nominee Jack Lew, putting increased pressure on the White House to either meet her demand to lift a ban on deepwater drilling or use a recess appointment for the budget chief.
USA Today:
Reuters:
  • U.S. Senate Votes to Extend GSE Loan Limits. The U.S. Senate on Wednesday approved a one-year extension of increased loan limits on mortgages backed by the government, paving the way for final action in the House of Representatives. The Senate voted 69-30 to approve a stopgap spending bill to keep the government running through mid-December.
  • Citi(C) Critic Mayo Questions Bank's Capital Spending Cuts. Citigroup Inc (C) reduced its capital spending by almost 75 percent since 2007, risking the long-term upkeep of its infrastructure, prominent bank analyst and Citigroup critic Mike Mayo wrote in a report on Wednesday.
Telegraph:
  • Europe's Austerity Anger Grows. More than 100,000 marchers converged on Brussels from across the EU to protest austerity measures on Wednesday, while Spanish unions took the extraordinary step of breaking ranks with Spain's socialist government by launching a general strike. "Workers are on the streets today with a clear message to Europe's leaders," said John Monks, head of the European Trade Union Confederation. "There is a great danger that workers are going to pay the price for the reckless speculation that took place in financial markets. You have to reschedule these debts so that they are not a huge burden and cause Europe to plunge down into recession," he said, reflecting growing bitterness among ordinary people that they are bearing the brunt of austerity while bondholders have been shielded from losses.
AFP:
  • Anglo Irish Failure Would 'Bring Down' Ireland: Minister. Ireland's finance minister has warned the failure of Anglo Irish Bank would "bring down" the country, as regulators prepared to reveal Thursday the cost of bailing out the stricken lender. "Any Anglo failure would bring down the sovereign," the finance minister was quoted as saying in the FT. "It is systemically important not because of any intrinsic merit in the bank. But because of its size relative to the national balance sheet. "No country could contemplate the failure of such an institution." Ireland will disclose Thursday the total cost of the state bailout of Anglo Irish.
Yomiuri:
  • The Bank of Japan may cut its assessment of the economic outlook at a meeting scheduled for Oct. 28. The central bank may cut its forecast for fiscal 2010 growth in real gross domestic product to between 2% and 2.5%, compared with its current 2.6% estimate. The bank may also cut its outlook for fiscal 2011.
Jiji:
  • Japan may budget measures to secure supplies of rare earths after China curtailed exports of the minerals, citing Japanese trade minister Akihiro Ohata.
Evening Recommendations
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.75% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 116.50 +.5 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 111.0 -1.5 basis points.
  • S&P 500 futures -.18%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.19%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (MKC)/.59
  • (LWSN)/.09
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • 2Q GDP is estimated to rise +1.6% versus a prior estimate of a +1.6% gain.
  • 2Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +2.0% versus a prior estimate of a +2.0% increase.
  • 2Q Core PCE is estimated to rise +1.1% versus a prior estimate of a +1.1% gain.
  • Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 460K versus 465K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 4473K versus 4489K prior.
9:45 am EST
  • Chicago Purchasing Manager for September is estimated to fall to 55.5 versus a reading of 56.7 in August.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Bernanke speaking, Fed's Pianalto speaking, NAPM-Milwaukee Index, Bloomberg FCI Sept. reading, (VCI) Investor Conference, (MMC) Analyst Meeting, (WU) Investor Day, weekly EIA natural gas inventory data, Oppenheimer Industrials Conference and the Wells Fargo Consumer Conference could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Rising Financial Sector Pessimism, Profit-Taking, US Housing Worries


Broad Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • VIX 22.74 +.62%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 153.0 +14.18%
  • Total Put/Call .76 -23.23%
  • NYSE Arms 1.03 +55.46%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 107.78 bps -2.48%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 129.28 bps -3.83%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 159.0 bps +.21%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 222.67 bps -.57%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 16.0 unch.
  • TED Spread 13.0 -2 bps
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .15% +1 bp
  • Yield Curve 206.0 +3 bps
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $140.80/Metric Tonne +.93%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -14.90 -3.2 points.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.81% -1 bp
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating -4 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +19 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my Retail, Biotech and Ag long positions
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is mildly bearish as the S&P 500 trades lower despite gains in commodities and most overseas markets. On the positive side, Computer, Oil Service, Alt Energy and Coal shares are especially strong, rising 1.0%+. Small-caps are outperforming. Copper is rising another +.63%. The 10-year yield is rising +3 bps to 2.49%. On the negative side, REIT, Retail, Homebuilding, Insurance, Biotech, Oil Tanker and Telecom shares are under pressure, falling more than .75%. (XLF)/(IYR)/(XHB) are a bit heavy. The US Muni CDS Index is jumping +3.46% to 220.71 bps. The euro currency continues to ignore mounting headwinds for the region as traders focus on deteriorating US fundamentals. The Shanghai Composite finished near session lows, falling slightly overnight, and closed below its 50-day moving average again. Investors continue to ignore most negative news items, which remains a large market positive. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, investor performance angst and technical buying.

Today's Headlines


Bloomberg:

  • Plosser Opposes More Fed Bond Purchases, Sees 'Little Risk' of Deflation. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser said he opposes more monetary expansion by the U.S. central bank in part because he sees “little risk” of deflation. “Because I see little gain at this point, and some costs, I would prefer not to engage in further asset purchases at this time,” Plosser said in remarks prepared for a speech to the Greater Vineland, New Jersey, Chamber of Commerce today. “Asset purchases in our current economic environment can do little if anything to speed up the return to full employment.” “It is difficult, in my view, to see how additional asset purchases by the Fed, even if they move interest rates on long-term bonds down by 10 or 20 basis points, will have much impact on the near-term outlook for employment.”
  • Meredith Whitney Rates California Worst of 15 Biggest States, Fortune Says. Meredith Whitney, the analyst who correctly predicted Citigroup Inc.’s dividend cut in 2008, will release a report rating California’s financial condition as the worst among the 15 largest U.S. states, Fortune said. The report rates the states by four criteria: economy, fiscal health, housing and taxes, Fortune said, citing Whitney. Texas and Virginia are the only two states to receive overall positive ratings, the magazine reported yesterday.
  • Paris on Alert After Bomb Threats Empty Eiffel Tower, Stations. France is on “red alert” for a terrorist attack, deploying thousands of police and soldiers to “sensitive” locations after at least four bomb threats at the Eiffel Tower and railway stations in the past two weeks.
  • Chinese Government to Speed Up Property Tax Introduction to Cool Market. China will speed up the introduction of a trial property tax in some cities and then expand the levy to the whole country to curb rising real estate prices, the government said, without giving a timetable. The state also asked commercial banks to stop offering loans to buyers of third homes and extended a 30 percent down payment requirement to all first-home buyers, according to a statement posted on the government website. The down payment level previously applied only to homes larger than 90 square meters (969 square feet). The country will also end an income-tax exemption on profits from the sale of real estate reinvested within one year, the ministry said. Banks will be ordered to stop lending to property developers that violate industry regulations, the government said earlier today. Credit Suisse analysts led by Jinsong Du recommended “reducing exposure” to Chinese property stocks in the near term, saying a tax would hurt real-estate market sentiment, according to a note to clients dated yesterday. China may announce property taxes as early as the October National Day holidays, China Business News reported Sept. 21, citing an unidentified person.
  • Kocherlakota Says Additional Fed Asset Purchases May Have 'Muted' Impact. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Narayana Kocherlakota said the Fed may have a tough time aiding the economy and reducing a “deeply troubling” unemployment rate through a second round of Treasury purchases. With financial markets functioning better now than in early 2009, “my own guess is that further uses of QE would have a more muted effect” on narrowing the gap between longer and shorter-term Treasury yields, Kocherlakota said today in a speech in London hosted by the European Economics and Financial Centre, using “quantitative easing” to refer to such purchases. Kocherlakota’s skepticism about how much restarting large- scale purchases of Treasuries would boost growth and inflation signals he may not be in favor of adopting the policy.
  • Spain Has First General Strike in Decade as Europe Marches. Spanish workers disrupted transport and television broadcasts in the first general strike in eight years as demonstrators marched in a dozen European cities against government spending cuts.

Wall Street Journal:
  • iSuppli Raises Estimate for 2010 Global Silicon Shipments. iSuppli Corp. raised its estimates for 2010 global silicon shipments to year-to-year growth of 24% and sees its rising another 13% in 2011.
  • NY Judge Finds Nothing Private About Facebook Postings. Here’s an interesting legal development for those New Yorkers who chronicle their personal lives on Facebook: A Suffolk County judge presiding over a personal-injury lawsuit has ruled that material posted to online social networks — even what people post behind privacy settings — can be used as evidence in court.
  • Obama Struggles to Reconnect With Voters. President Barack Obama, meeting swing-state voters in a leafy backyard, struggled again Wednesday to answer the concerns of supporters once buoyed by the excitement of the presidential campaign, but now demoralized by economic struggle.
CNBC:
MarketWatch:
  • Goldman(GS) Selling Part of Stake in ICBC. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. hopes to raise up to $2.05 billion from the sale of part of its stake in Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., a person familiar with the situation said Wednesday.
  • Gold Soars to Record High as Dollar Falls. Gold for December delivery, the most active contract, rose $3.90, or 0.3%, to $1,312.20 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. It hit a record at $1,314.80 an ounce earlier in electronic trading.
Business Insider:
Boston Herald:
TradeWinds:
  • An expanding supertanker fleet will prevent charter rates from rallying to levels seen in the first half of this year, Steve Christy, head of research at E.A. Gibson Shipbrokers Ltd., told TradeWinds.
Politico:
  • Boehner Backs Issa on Subpoena Promises. House Minority Leader John Boehner threw his full support behind Rep. Darrell Issa’s (R-Calif.) plan to bombard the Obama administration with subpoenas if Republicans take back the House in November. “I think Congress has an appropriate role under the Constitution to provide oversight of the executive branch. And I would pledge that it’s going to happen,” he told reporters Wednesday.
  • John Thune: Washington is Killing Jobs. Sen. John Thune of South Dakota, chairman of the Senate Republican Policy Committee, says his party will use its increased muscle after the midterm elections to “provide some predictability and some certainty to small-business owners that their taxes aren’t going up.” “Almost everything that Washington is doing right now kills jobs because it increases the cost of doing business,” Thune said Tuesday in an interview for the POLITICO video series “The Jobs Report.”
  • Distrust of Media Hits Record High. Fifty-seven percent of Americans do not trust the news media to accurately and fairly report the news, a new high according to a Gallup poll out Wednesday. The percentage of Americans who distrust the media has been steadily climbing since the mid 1990s, when distrusts in the news media rated hovered around 45 percent.
Reuters:
  • UN Gets Backing for Sovereign Debt Project. The United Nations has won backing from a range of governments and financial institutions for a plan to draw up guidelines governing sovereign debt, a U.N. debt official said on Wednesday. The project, run by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), aims to establish principles for both lenders and government borrowers to reduce the severity and frequency of sovereign debt crises.
  • Mexico Finance Minister Says Still Eyeing Oil Hedge.
  • China Criticizes Weak U.S. Dollar Policy. China said the United States should take action to stabilise the dollar, criticising Washington's expansionary monetary policy for weakening the currency despite its key role in the global financial system. The comments by a Chinese official at a meeting of the World Trade Organization came as the U.S. House of Representatives was set to pass a bill putting pressure on China to let the yuan rise faster. "We are very much concerned about how the U.S. would take practical and responsible measures to prevent the dollar glut and maintain the stability of the currency," Sun said.
Globe and Mail:
  • The Fed's Second Bubble. At the recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke signalled that he plans to keep interest rates effectively at zero for as long as possible, and that he’s ready to stand by with more quantitative easing (i.e. printing money) if necessary. But if the Fed’s blaming the last recession on the financial meltdown from the subprime mortgage market, why is it so committed to recreating those same credit conditions that spawned Wall Street’s worst-ever post-Depression crash?
Telegraph:

ABC:
  • Workers Arrive in Belgium for Spending Cuts Protest. Thousands of protesters from across Europe are arriving in Belgium for a mass demonstration against spending cuts by European governments. Trade unions hope that some 100,000 will march on European Union institution buildings in the capital, Brussels.

Bear Radar


Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value (-.15%)
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) REITs -.90% 2) Biotech -.84% 3) Oil Tankers -.70%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • ATHR, SPN, HNR, ACOR, AUXL, WBSN, DB, AZN, GMCR, MOTR, URBN, HSFT, FOSL, AMGN, CEDC, LOGM, HMIN, AM and ENR
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) FDO 2) BSX 3) SCHW 4) DTV 5) EMC
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) JACK 2) LYV 3) ZZ 4) SU 5) ENB